Madrid Open 2024 Draw: Rafael Nadal's projected path to the final ft. potential R4 clash with Stefanos Tsitsipas and SF with Jannik Sinner

Rafael Nadal's comeback will continue at the 2024 Madrid Open, which is just his third tournament of the year.

The Spaniard is a five-time champion at the venue, which is a record. After an injury setback forced him to cut short his initial comeback in January, he returned to the tour at last week's Barcelona Open.

While Nadal won his first-round duel against Flavio Cobolli with ease, he lost to Alex de Minaur in the second round. He will aim to perform better at the Madrid Open, but a tricky draw could make it difficult for him.

Here's a look at the players the 37-year-old will have to go through to reach another final at the venue:

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R1 opponent - Darwin Blanch

The 16-year-old Blanch will be Nadal's first opponent at the 2024 Madrid Open. The teenager has barely any experience at the ATP level and made his tour-level debut at last month's Miami Open. Despite the lack of match play, the Spaniard will be expected to make it through this match.

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R2 opponent - Alex de Minaur

Lying in wait for Nadal in the second round is Alex de Minaur. The former World No. 1 lost to his younger rival in the second round of the Barcelona Open just last week.

Nadal leads De Minaur 3-2 in the head-to-head, but the latter has won their last two encounters. The Spaniard will be better prepared to counter him this time, but he will need to step up to have a shot at victory.

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Possible R3 opponent - Frances Tiafoe

Frances Tiafoe at the 2024 Australian Open.

Tiafoe struggled all year long until it was time for him to defend his title in Houston at the start of the clay swing. He faltered at the very last hurdle of his title defence, as he lost to Ben Shelton in the final.

Nevertheless, Tiafoe will arrive at the Madrid Open full of confidence. He'll need that in spades if he's up against Nadal in the third round. The Spaniard leads the rivalry 2-1 but lost their previous encounter at the 2022 US Open.

However, one of Nadal's two wins over Tiafoe came at the Madrid Open in 2019. The Spaniard could feel inspired by his previous win here and replicate the result to advance further.

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Possible R4 opponent - Stefanos Tsitsipas

If Nadal makes it this far, he would have found his footing in the tournament. It would be quite difficult for the rest of the field to stop him if he's back to his old self. However, his probable adversary in the fourth round, Tsitsipas, will fancy his chances.

The Greek has played well during the clay season. He won the Monte-Carlo Masters and reached the final of the Barcelona Open. While the head-to-head is 7-2 in Nadal's favor, one of Tsitsipas' two wins came at the Madrid Open. He has the potential to repeat that result once again.

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Possible QF opponent - Daniil Medvedev

Medvedev is the highest-ranked player Nadal could face in the last-eight. The Russian bowed out in the third round of the Monte-Carlo Masters to record his earliest exit from a tournament this season.

Nadal has lost to Medvedev just once across six career meetings. While the latter's aversion to clay is no secret, he won the Italian Open last year. Should the Russian falter early on, Ben Shelton could reach this stage in his place instead.

The American captured his first title on clay at the U.S. Men's Clay Court Championships in Houston. Shelton has proven to be a quick learner and could give Nadal a run for his money, even on clay.

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Possible SF opponent - Jannik Sinner/ Casper Ruud

Casper Ruud at the 2024 Barcelona Open.

The in-form Sinner could await Nadal in the semifinals. The Italian has been the man to beat all year long and has a 25-2 record for the year. He commenced his season on clay with a semifinal showing at the Monte-Carlo Masters.

Sinner has lost all three of his previous matches against Nadal. However, the reigning Australian Open champion has recently overturned quite a few rivalries which he lagged. He could do the same against the Spaniard as well.

Ruud is another player Nadal could meet in the semifinals. The Norwegian claimed the biggest title of his career at the Barcelona Open over the weekend. While he has won a tour-leading 29 matches this year, it remains to be seen if he can tally his first win over his idol.

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Possible final opponent - Carlos Alcaraz

Nadal could lock horns with two-time defending champion Alcaraz for the Madrid Open title. An injury forced the latter to miss the Barcelona Open, where he was the two-time defending champion as well.

Alcaraz and Nadal's rivalry kicked off at the 2021 Madrid Open, as the latter dropped just three games en route to victory. The older Spaniard won their next match as well, at the 2022 Indian Wells Masters.

Alcaraz snapped his losing skid with a win over his older compatriot at the 2022 Madrid Open. However, this will be his first match after an injury break, so one can't say for sure how he could fare here.

Alexander Zverev, Taylor Fritz, and Holger Rune are among the other contenders who could await Nadal in the final.