Madrid Open 2025 Draw: Carlos Alcaraz's projected path to final ft. potential SF clash vs Novak Djokovic

Carlos Alcaraz will be looking to nab his third career title at the Madrid Open this fortnight. The Spaniard suffered a surprising straight-set defeat to Holger Rune in the Barcelona Open final on Sunday (April 20) and arrives at Caja Magica with a monkey on his back as far as his recent campaigns at big tournaments are concerned.

Alcaraz has been through a difficult time on the ATP Tour since winning his fourth Major title at Wimbledon last July. In the last eight months, the 21-year-old has won just one big title (2025 Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters). It remains to be seen whether he is in good shape to defend his French Open crown later next month.

Seeded second in Madrid, the World No. 3 has received a relatively easy draw up until the semifinals. The young Spaniard is also looking down a potential encounter against Novak Djokovic, who beat him in four sets at the Australian Open in January. Without further ado, let's take a look at his path to the final of the second clay-court ATP Masters 1000 tournament of 2025.

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Carlos Alcaraz's 2R opponent - Yoshihito Nishioka/Zizou Bergs

Having received a first-round Bye, Carlos Alcaraz will face the winner between Yoshihito Nishioka and Zizou Bergs in the second round of the 2025 Madrid Masters. While the second feed hasn't faced Bergs on the ATP Tour, he owns a 2-0 lead in his head-to-head record against Nishioka.

He will most likely come through unscathed against either opponent to set up an interesting clash against his Qatar Open conqueror, Jiri Leheka.

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Carlos Alcaraz's 3R opponent - Jiri Lehecka

Carlos Alcaraz lost to Jiri Lehecka at the Qatar Open 2025 | Image Source: Getty

Provided Lehecka gets past either Great Britain's Cameron Norrie or Spain's Martin Landaluce, he can turn out to be a tough customer for Alcaraz. The Czech big-hitter downed the 21-year-old in three sets in their last-eight clash in Doha and also beat Rafael Nadal and Daniil Medvedev en route to the semifinals of last year's Madrid Open.

Although the World No. 3 showed signs of injury during his most recent on-court outing, he is the favorite to get past the 26th seed on home turf.

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Carlos Alcaraz's 4R opponent - Grigor Dimitrov/Tomas Machac

The going gets relatively easier for Carlos Alcaraz in the Round of 16, where he can potentially face the 15th-seeded Grigor Dimitrov or the 19th-seeded Tomas Machac. The Spaniard has lost against both Dimitrov and Machac at big tournaments recently. That said, it's hard to see the Bulgarian and the Czech beat the second seed on arguably his best surface, given their current form.

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Carlos Alcaraz's QF opponent - Alex de Minaur/Lorenzo Musetti/Stefanos Tsitsipas

Alcaraz enjoys a match-up advantage against his prospective last-eight opponents - Alex de Minaur, Lorenzo Musetti, and Stefanos Tsitsipas. While the four-time Major winner owns a 4-0 edge over Tsitsipas in their claycourt meetings, he also defeated de Minaur and Musetti this year at the Barcelona Open and the Monte-Carlo Masters, respectively.

Needless to say, the above players will have to be at the absolute top of their respective powers to spring an upset over the two-time Madrid Open champion.

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Carlos Alcaraz's SF opponent - Novak Djokovic/Jack Draper

Carlos Alcaraz could face Novak Djokovic for a place in the Madrid Open final | Image Source: Getty

Carlos Alcaraz's toughest potential match at the 2025 Madrid Masters will come against three-time titlist Novak Djokovic or his Indian Wells conqueror, Jack Draper. The Spaniard's chances to reach the final aren't as formidable as they would've been last year; he has been outclassed in his last two matches by Djokovic, and has also dropped two of his last three meetings with Draper.

The former World No. 1 will likely have to produce something special to get past either opponent and reach the title match in Madrid.

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Carlos Alcaraz's final opponent - Alexander Zverev/Taylor Fritz/Holger Rune

If Alcaraz manages to reach his second Madrid Open final, he will most likely take on either two-time champion Alexander Zverev, fourth-seeded Taylor Fritz, or the in-form Holger Rune, who downed him in convincing fashion in their Barcelona Open final clash last week. The World No. 3 trails Zverev 5-6 in their head-to-head meetings on the ATP Tour but notably has defeated the German in three of their four claycourt encounter.

The 21-year-old leads Fritz 2-0 in their rivalry and is tied 2-2 with Rune. The second seed is in for an overall tough outing at this week's Madrid Open. That said, he has shown plenty of improvement since losing in the second round of the Miami Open and will be a force to reckon with on the high-altitude claycourts at Caja Magica.