Miami Open 2023 Final: Daniil Medvedev vs Jannik Sinner preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick

Medvedev (left) takes on Sinner in the Miami final on Saturday.
Medvedev (left) takes on Sinner in the Miami final on Saturday.

Match Details

Fixture: (4) Daniil Medvedev vs (10) Jannik Sinner

Tournament: Miami Open 2023

Date: Sunday, April 2

Round: Final

Venue: Miami Gardens, Florida, United States

Category: ATP Masters 1000

Surface: Outdoor hardcourt

Prize money: $8,800,000

Live telecast: USA - Tennis Channel/TC Plus | UK - Amazon Prime Video

Daniil Medvedev vs Jannik Sinner preview

Medvedev is into his first Miami final.
Medvedev is into his first Miami final.

Fourth seed Daniil Medvedev will take on tenth seed Jannik Sinner in the Miami Open final on Sunday (April 2).

The fifth-ranked Medvedev recovered from a loss in the second set to down compatriot Karen Khachanov in a competitive first semifinal. In the process, the Russian improved to 28-3 on the season, having won his previous 23 out of 24 matches.

This run saw the former World No. 1 rack up titles in Rotterdam, Doha, and Dubai before his 19-match winning run was ended by Carlos Alcaraz in the Indian Wells final a fortnight ago. Medvedev returned to winning ways in Miami, racking up four wins (one was a walkover) to reach his first final of the tournament.

Meanwhile, in a blockbuster second semifinal, World No. 11 Jannik Sinner recovered from a set deficit to down defending champion Carlos Alcaraz. The loss means Alcaraz's two-week World No. 1 stint is over, with Novak Djokovic returning to the summit on Monday.

Sinner fought from the brink against Alcaraz - finding himself 4-3 and two break points down. However, he won 19 of his next 21 points to restore parity and led 2-0 in the third. Saving a break point at 3-2, Sinner closed out a high-quality three-hour win to even his head-to-head with Alcaraz at 3-3. In the process, the 2021 finalist improved to 21-4 on the season and 13-2 in Miami.

Daniil Medvedev vs Jannik Sinner head-to-head

Medvedev has a commanding 5-0 H2H lead over Sinner. The pair last met in the Rotterdam final this year, where the Russian recovered from a set down to beat the reigning champions. This will be their first meeting on the outdoor hardcourt, with all five previous meetings happening on the indoor hardcourt.

Daniil Medvedev vs Jannik Sinner odds

PlayerMoneylineHandicap BetsTotal Games (over/under)
Daniil Medvedev-135-1.5 (+160)Over 22.5 (-115)
Jannik Sinner+115+1.5 (-225)Under 22.5 (-120)

(All odds as per BETMGM)

Daniil Medvedev vs Jannik Sinner prediction

Sinner is into his second Miami final in three years.
Sinner is into his second Miami final in three years.

Both Medvedev and Sinner are quintessential baseliners who tend to play their best tennis on the hardcourt.

While the Russian serves bigger, Sinner makes up for that with his powerful groundstrokes off both the flank and elite athleticism. The Italian, in fact, is widely known as one of the best young players in the sport, while Medvedev is one of the best counterpunchers. Both players are not averse to winning points at the net.

Medvedev has had Sinner's number, but the Italian has taken a set off his opponent in three of their five previous meetings. A win would take Medvedev back into the top four, while Sinner would break into the top six if he wins his maiden Masters 1000 title. The red-hot Medvedev will start off as the favorite, though.

Prediction: Medvedev in three sets

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