Explained: How Daniil Medvedev can replace Novak Djokovic at the top of the ATP rankings in February

Daniil Medvedev reached a career-high ATP ranking of World No. 2 in March 2021, and, barring a three-week period between April and May, the Russian has made the position his own. Now, almost a year later, Medvedev finally has the chance to displace Novak Djokovic from the top of the rankings.

It is mainly thanks to the choice of tournaments the two players have chosen to compete in, following the 2022 Australian Open. After his loss in the final against Rafael Nadal, the World No. 2 will be making a return to action at the Acapulco Open (February 21-26).

The World No. 1, on the other hand, will be playing his first competitive match of the 2022 season at the Dubai Tennis Championships the same week. As things stand, the Serb has 10, 875 points to his name, while the Russian has 9,635.

The ranking points from the 2021 Australian Open will drop on February 21, taking them to 8,875 and 8,435 points respectively. However, Djokovic is also defending 500 points in Dubai, courtesy of his title triumph in the 2020 edition, with those points set to drop on February 28.

This gives rise to a multitude of scenarios depending upon how far each player goes in their respective tournaments. Let's take a look:

What happens if Daniil Medvedev wins the Acapulco Open?

If Daniil Medvedev wins the Acapulco Open, it will not matter what happens with the 20-time Grand Slam champion in Dubai. In that case, the 25-year-old will become the new ATP No. 1, the 27th player in tennis history and the third Russian after Yevgeny Kafelnikov and Marat Safin to reach the spot.

What happens if Daniil Medvedev does not win the Acapulco Open?

Daniil Medvedev has a shot at the World No. 1 position even if he does not win the Acapulco Open

All will not be lost for Daniil Medvedev if he does not win the title in Mexico. However, in that scenario, the World No. 1 spot will be up for grabs for both players depending on where they finish in their respective tournaments. For example, if Medvedev loses out in the first round, Djokovic will remain the No. 1 if he reaches the quarterfinals.

If the reigning US Open champion loses out in the second round or the quarterfinals, the 34-year-old will remain No. 1 as long as he reaches the semifinals. But if Medvedev reaches the semifinals, Djokovic has to reach the final to hold on to the World No. 1 position.

Finally, if Medvedev reaches the final at Acapulco, Djokovic has no option but to win the title in Dubai for a sixth time if he wants to continue as World No. 1.