Rafael Nadal can regain World No 1 ranking from Roger Federer without playing Indian Wells

What's the story?

Rafael Nadal might just regain his World No. 1 ranking from arch-nemesis Roger Federer as early as 19th March 2018 even after withdrawing from this month's BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells.

If Federer, who opened his 305th week at the top of the ATP rankings, does not make it to the semi-finals in Indian Wells, he will drop to second in the rankings just after a few weeks after displacing Nadal at the top.

In case you didn't know...

Federer reclaimed the top spot in the world rankings after almost five years earlier last month when he defeated Robin Haase in the quarter-final of the ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament in Rotterdam.

Meanwhile, Nadal has been plagued with injuries which have forced him to retire from his Australian Open match and withdraw from the Mexican Open, the BNP Paribas Open and the Miami Open.

The heart of the matter

As per the latest rankings released earlier today, Nadal is 600 points behind Federer having lost 300 points for not being able to defend his points in Acapulco. In fact, the 31-year-old will lose a further 690 points for having withdrawn from Indian Wells and Miami.

However, if Federer, who has 1000 points to defend in Indian Wells, crashes out in the quarter-finals or earlier, he will drop down to No. 2 on 19th March 2018.

If, on the other hand, he wins both the Indian Wells and the Miami titles, the Swiss would secure his top ranking until the grass-court season in June. In that case, Nadal, who has to defend 4680 points on clay, will end up being stuck on No. 2 even if he wins all five titles, viz. Monte Carlo, Barcelona, Madrid, Rome and Roland Garros.

What's next?

Federer will be in action in Indian Wells later this week where he defeated countryman Stanislas Wawrinka in the final last year to claim the title. Even if he loses his World No 1 ranking in Indian Wells, he will have another chance of regaining it if he wins in Miami.

Author's take

The 36-year-old is the clear favourite to win the 98th title of his career and it is unlikely that he will lose out before the semis and hence, drop to World No. 2. He is in a good position to stay on the top at least until the grass season but he must be wary of the Indian Wells situation.