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Roland Garros 2021: Novak Djokovic vs Matteo Berrettini preview, head-to-head and prediction 

Novak Djokovic
Novak Djokovic
Iman Guha
ANALYST

Match details

Fixture: (1) Novak Djokovic vs (9) Matteo Berrettini

Date: 9 June 2021

Tournament: Roland Garros 2021

Round: Quarterfinals

Venue: Paris, France

Category: Grand Slam

Surface: Red Clay

Prize money: €17,171,108

Match timing: Not before 8 pm local time, 6 pm GMT, 2 pm EST, 11.30 pm IST

Live telecast: USA - NBC Sports / Tennis Channel | UK - ITV | India - Star Sports / Disney+ Hotstar VIP

Novak Djokovic vs Matteo Berrettini preview

Last week, Marcos Giron trailed Grigor Dimitrov in their first-round encounter by two sets to love and was a point away from defeat at 1-5 0-40 in the third. Saving multiple match points, Giron went on to win the next nine games, at which point Dimitrov retired from the match with an injury.

Having looked unstoppable across his first three rounds at Roland Garros 2021, it was Novak Djokovic's turn to pull off such a heist on Monday.

In his fourth-round encounter against Lorenzo Musetti, the World No. 1 found himself trailing by two sets after more than two hours of play. The Serb, who had turned himself into a giant in tiebreaks in recent times, had just lost two of them to a teenager playing in his first Grand Slam. But Lorenzo Musetti is by no means your average teenager.

Coming into the match, the 19-year-old had won all eight of his tiebreaks since joining the tour. And while he wasn't the favorite to maintain his perfect record when up against Novak Djokovic, he improved to 10-0. But that was the end of his charge and Musetti could offer little resistance when the Serb began his.

Djokovic ran away with the remainder of the match in less than an hour, winning 16 of the next 17 games, at which point the Italian retired. With the victory, the 34-year-old reached the quarterfinals for the 15th time in 17 appearances in Paris.

Matteo Berrettini
Matteo Berrettini

Djokovic's opponent in the final eight had a relatively uneventful fourth round. In fact, he didn't even play it. Matteo Berrettini was slated to play Roger Federer in the last 16. But the 20-time Grand Slam champion withdrew from the tournament a day after his late-night marathon wi over Dominik Koepfer.

It is difficult to assess the impact of receiving a bye in a tournament, especially in Grand Slams where the player already has a rest day between two matches.

Will Matteo Berrettini enter his quarterfinal match fresher because of the bye? Or will he be more rusty due to lack of matchplay for three days? Nevertheless, the Italian has been in sensational form thus far.

Even though the 25-year-old dropped a set to Taro Daniel in his first-round match, he hasn't really been threatened. Berrettini has won more than 70% of his service points in every match he has played in Paris this year (81%, 72% and 76%) and is the only player to record such numbers.

Novak Djokovic vs Matteo Berrettini head-to-head

Novak Djokovic leads Matteo Berrettini 1-0 in the head-to-head.

Their sole encounter on the tour came on an indoor hardcourt in the 2019 ATP Finals, which the Serb comfortably won 6-2 6-1.

Novak Djokovic vs Matteo Berrettini prediction

Elo ratings provided by Tennis Abstract were used to generate a tournament forecast prior to the start of Roland Garros.

Novak Djokovic entered the tournament at 2054 Elo, and his tournament-adjusted Elo is 2176. Matteo Berrettini, on the other hand, entered the tournament at 1934 Elo, and his tournament-adjusted Elo is 2017.

Both players' respective fourth-round matches haven't been taken into consideration for Elo adjustment, since Berrettini's wasn't played and Djokovic's ended in a retirement.

The difference in their scores equates to a win probability of 71.41% for Djokovic.

The Serb is expected to win around 73% of his service points while Berrettini is expected to win around 67% of his.

Prediction: Novak Djokovic to win in four sets.


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Edited by Arvind Sriram
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