Shanghai Masters 2025: Holger Rune vs Sebastian Baez preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds, and betting tips

Match Details

Fixture: (10) Holger Rune vs Sebastian Baez

Date: 3 October, 2025

Tournament: Rolex Shanghai Masters 2025

Round: Second Round (Round of 64)

Venue: Qizhong Forest Sports City Arena, Shanghai, China

Category: Masters 1000

Surface: Hard

Prize Money: $9,193,540

Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN

Holger Rune vs Sebastian Baez preview:

Rune at the Laver Cup 2025 - Day 1 - Source: Getty

World No. 11 Holger Rune will be facing struggling Sebastian Baez in the Round of 64 fixture of the Shanghai Masters on Friday, October 3.

Rune enters this ATP 1000 event after a quarterfinal exit at the Japan Open. He defeated Hamad Medjedovic and Ethan Quinn in straight sets but was stunned by unseeded American Jenson Brooksby in the quarterfinals in Tokyo.

However, the former World No. 4 is enjoying a good season with a solid 31-20 win-loss record in men's singles. Rune also clinched his first-ever ATP 500 title in Barcelona in April and finished as a runner-up at the Indian Wells in March. After a shock exit at the Japan Open, the Danish youngster was given a bye in the first round of the Shanghai Masters.

On the other hand, Sebastian Baez arrived in Shanghai after a first-round exit in Tokyo. He made a stunning comeback to defeat home favorite Zhang Zhizhen 6-2, 3-6, 4-6 in the opening round of the Shanghai Masters.

The Argentine star has struggled in the recent tour events with several early exits. He will be looking to end his losing streak as his last win came at the Winston-Salem Open in August, where he defeated Pablo Carreno Busta in the first round.

Holger Rune vs Sebastian Baez head-to-head:

Holger Rune leads the ATP singles head-to-head record against Sebastian Baez by a margin of 3-2. In their most recent encounter, Rune defeated Baez by 4-6, 6-1, 6-2 in the Barcelona Open this season.

Holger Rune vs Sebastian Baez odds:

Player	Moneyline	Handicap Bets	Total Games
Holger Rune	-455	-5.5 (-115)	Over 21.5 (-110)
Sebastian Baez	+333	+5.5 (-105)	Under 21.5 (-125)

(Odds are sourced from Bet365 and WinComparator)

Holger Rune vs Sebastian Baez prediction:

Sebastian Baez at the ATP 250 Winston-Salem Open 2025 - Day 2 - Source: Getty

Rune has enjoyed a good run of form lately despite his quarterfinal exit at the Japan Open. After reaching the fourth round of the Australian Open earlier this season, he stunned Carlos Alcaraz to win his first ATP 500 title in Barcelona. He also has a decent record in the Masters events this season with an 11-7 win-loss record.

However, the 22-year-old has struggled for consistency after his famous title win at Barcelona in April. He failed to progress beyond the second round in Wimbledon and the US Open. He also lost both his singles and doubles matches in the recent Laver Cup.

Baez, who successfully defended his title at the Rio Open in February, was excellent against Zhang Zhizhen in the first round of the Shanghai Masters. After losing the opening set, he showed great character to fight back and advance to the next round.

However, the 24-year-old Argentine faces a tough task to overcome the tenth seed Rune. Baez has recorded just two wins in ten singles matches on hard court this season and also remains winless against a top 10 ranked player in 2025. Rune's strong serves and his impressive 19-12 win-loss record on hard court this season make him a favorite against Baez.

Pick: Rune to win in straight sets.