Australian Open 2014: Statistical preview of Roger Federer vs Jo Wilfried Tsonga

MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA – JANUARY 08: Roger Federer (R) of Switzerland and Jo Wilfried Tsonga of Francce hug after their match during the Roger Federer Charity Match at Melbourne Park on January 8, 2014 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Michael Dodge/Getty Images)

6th seed Roger Federer is set to take on 10th seed Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the fourth round of the Australian Open on Monday, 20th Jan 2014. The match will take place at 7:00 PM local time on Rod Laver Arena, and is already being touted as a potential epic. As a preview to the match, I present a statistical analysis of the three matches that both men have played so far at the 2014 Australian Open.

Service Profile

1. Tsonga has hit more aces (46) than Federer (28).
2. Federer has hit more service winners (13) than Tsonga (7).
3. Tsonga has hit more double faults (7) than Federer (6).
4. Federer has a better first serve percentage (65.20 %) than Tsonga (64.29 %).
5. Federer has won more points on his first serve (83.78 %) than Tsonga (80.12 %).
6. Tsonga has won more points on his second serve (64.21 %) than Federer (55.70 %).
7. Tsonga’s fastest serve (223 km/h) is faster than Federer’s (208 km/h).
8. Tsonga’s average first serve speed (188 km/h) is better than Federer’s (182 km/h).
9. Federer’s average second serve speed (151 km/h) is better than Tsonga’s (146 km/h).

Return Profile

1. Federer has won more points on his opponent’s first serve (38.37 %) than Tsonga (36.84 %).
2. Federer has won more points on his opponent’s second serve (54.05 %) than Tsonga (40.13 %).
3. Tsonga has a better break point conversion rate (39.29 %) than Federer (35.71 %).
4. Federer has made more return winners (37) than Tsonga (28).
5. Federer has made lesser return unforced errors (35) than Tsonga (47).

Rally Profile

1. Both players have not dropped a set in their three matches.
2. Federer has won more points coming to the net (73.24 %) than Tsonga (72.73%).
3. Federer has played lesser points (in total) (509) than Tsonga (552).

Winner and Unforced Error Profile

1. Tsonga has hit more winners (123) than Federer (117).
2. Federer has made lesser unforced errors (70) than Tsonga (82).
3. Tsonga has hit more forehand winners (52) than Federer (49).
4. Federer has hit more backhand winners (25) than Tsonga (14).
5. Federer has made fewer forced errors off his forehand (21) than Tsonga (23).
6. Federer has made fewer forced errors off his backhand (13) than Tsonga (25).
7. Federer has made fewer unforced errors off his forehand (27) than Tsonga (38).
8. Tsonga has made fewer unforced errors off his backhand (24) than Federer (32).
9. Federer has elicited more forced errors off his opponents’ forehands (30) than Tsonga (23).
10. Tsonga has elicited more forced errors off his opponents’ backhands (21) than Federer (18).

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The statistics point to a victory for Roger Federer, but the game of tennis is such that statistics can amount to nothing – it all depends on how a player plays on the day. Tsonga can certainly bring the game to Federer (remember Wimbledon 2011?), but Federer has been playing very well himself. It is certainly set up to be a classic.

Prediction – Federer in four tight sets