There's only one French Open favorite now, and it's Carlos Alcaraz

Carlos Alcaraz hasn’t played since the Barcelona Open, but even so, his Italian Open run proves that he’s still the number one favorite for Roland Garros.

Alcaraz won the French Open last year by beating Jannik Sinner in the semifinal and then Alexander Zverev in the final. Both of these matches went to five sets, so it wasn’t an easy win for the Spaniard.

He had to work hard for it, and he earned the trophy by outplaying and outlasting those two amazing tennis players. By virtue of that and his tremendous performances on clay so far in his career, Alcaraz was widely considered the favorite for the French Open before this season started.

Jannik Sinner had ascended in the meantime, and by winning the Australian Open once again, he proved that he would be a major contender moving forward. After all, he’s excellent on clay too and made the semifinal last year, a semifinal he nearly won.

Then came his suspension, and everybody assumed that Carlos Alcaraz would run away with it. However, he started to struggle, and after weeks of inconsistency, the confidence people had in Alcaraz waned quite a bit.

He regained that confidence in Monte Carlo, which he ended up winning, though it wasn’t a run without problems. He didn’t play his best tennis and might have lost the final had Musetti not picked up an injury.

He then played well in Barcelona but picked up an injury, and people soured on him again. Would he be fit? Would he remain fit? There were a lot of questions about what might happen with Alcaraz.

His Italian Open run was pretty decent, but another player was playing really well. Jannik Sinner returned from his suspension and looked awesome. The Italian made the final in his first tournament back, and a lot of people were stunned.

He didn’t miss a beat, so what would happen when he played himself into form? Was he the favorite to win the French Open now? Possibly, but what was certain was that he was the slight favorite to win the Italian Open.

It was a showdown between a returning Alcaraz and a returning Sinner. Neither player was playing at their peak or close to it, but in many ways, it was a preview of what might happen in Paris. So, who won and who cemented himself as the favorite for Roland Garros?

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2025 Italian Open Final: Sinner vs Alcaraz

Internazionali BNL D'Italia 2025 - Day Fourteen - Source: Getty

The 2025 Italian Open final was a big match. It was a match that would either give Sinner or Alcaraz more confidence heading into Roland Garros. It was not the decisive match, and both players would bounce back regardless of how it went, but it was one they both wanted to win.

For a good chunk of the match, Sinner seemed in control. He was giving Alcaraz problems, much like he had in their previous matches, and then came a pivotal game. It was 6-5 for Sinner, and the Italian had 40-15 on Alcaraz’s serve—two set points that he wasted quite cheaply.

Something like that is likely due to rust and won’t happen in a month, but it has to be noted. Alcaraz then won that game and ended up winning a very close tiebreak, possibly determined by a lucky net cord bounce that won him a crucial point.

Had that point gone to Sinner, the outcome would have possibly been different. The second set was a no-contest as Alcaraz dominated Sinner, who was making too many mistakes. Alcaraz remained composed and possibly felt better physically, as Sinner was dealing with a leg issue.

It was, in many ways, a similar match to some they played before. In Beijing last year, Sinner was inches away from winning but couldn’t finish and lost the match. Sinner had a good chance to win their Roland Garros match last year as well.

Overall, though, it was a good match for Sinner. He proved that he can still trouble Alcaraz, and when he finally gets to his best tennis, it will be a pretty even matchup. However, what the final also showed is that right now, at this moment, Carlos Alcaraz is still the favorite for the French Open.

He’s the more natural fit on clay. He’s the physically stronger player whose body tends to be more durable, though recent events might make you argue that point. He’s also a player who won their previous match at Roland Garros and lifted the trophy.

All of that, on top of how this match went, proves that Alcaraz is still the favorite. But Sinner is close. Very close. And he’s going to be even closer by the time Roland Garros begins.