US Open 2025: Aryna Sabalenka vs Marketa Vondrousova preview, head-to-head, odds, prediction, and pick

Match Details

Fixture: (1) Aryna Sabalenka vs Marketa Vondrousova

Date: September 2, 2025

Tournament: 2025 US Open

Round: Quarterfinal

Venue: Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, New York, USA

Category: Grand Slam

Surface: Hard

Prize Money: $90,000,000

Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN

Aryna Sabalenka vs Marketa Vondrousova preview

One of the quarterfinals at the 2025 US Open will feature top seed Aryna Sabalenka facing off against former Major champion Marketa Vondrousova.

Sabalenka is in great form as she has reached seven finals in 2025, winning three titles and winning 54 of her 64 matches in the season. Her hard-court record for the season is 30-5, with titles in Brisbane and Miami.

On the North American hard courts, Sabalenka reached the quarterfinal of the Cincinnati Open, where she was beaten by Elena Rybakina. She started her campaign in New York with confidence, winning 7-5, 6-1 against Rebeka Masarova in the first round, followed by a 7-6 (4), 6-2 against Polina Kudermetova in the second round after which she faced her first seeded opponent in the third round, winning 6-3, 7-6 (2) over Leylah Fernandez, and then won 6-1, 6-4 over Cristina Bucsa in the fourth round.

Winning one title in Berlin, Marketa Vondrousova has an 18-8 win-loss record in 2025 with a 10-6 win-loss record this year, with back-to-back second-round exits in Canada and Cincinnati before the US Open.

At the US Open, she started with a 6-3, 7-6 (3) win over Oksana Selekhmeteva in the first round, after which she won 7-6 (7), 6-2 over 31st-seeded McCartney Kessler in the second round and then won against two top-10 seeds, winning 7-6 (4), 6-1 over seventh seed Jasmine Paolini in the third round, and then winning 6-4, 5-7, 6-2 over ninth seed Elena Rybakina in the fourth round.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Marketa Vondrousova head-to-head

Sabalenka has a 5-4 head-to-head record against Vondrousova, winning the last match 7-5, 6-1 in Cincinnati this year.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Marketa Vondrousova odds

Player Name	Moneyline	Handicap Bets	Total Games
Aryna Sabalenka	-295	-1.5 (-120)	Over 21.5 (-110)
Market Vondrousova	+230	+1.5 (-120)	Under 21.5 (-135)

(Odds are sourced from BetMGM)

Aryna Sabalenka vs Marketa Vondrousova prediction

Considering service stats, Sabalenka has won 79 percent of the points behind her first serve and won 54 percent of the points behind the second serve. Meanwhile, Vondrousova has won 71 percent and 48 percent of her first and second serve points, respectively.

On return, Sabalenka has a 50 percent break point conversion rate, compared to 48 percent in the case of Vondrousova. The Belarusian has done well under pressure, saving 17 of the 19 break points she has faced, whereas the Czech player has been broken eleven times at this event.

Sabalenka has a winning record against Vondrousova, especially winning four of the six matches against the Czech on hard courts, which makes the Belarusian the favorite to win the upcoming match.

Pick- Sabalenka to win in straight sets

About the author

Sagnik, a Mass Communication and Journalism graduate, is a tennis journalist at Sportskeeda. Before finding his spot in the tennis writing team, he worked as a junior content specialist for academic content writing firms for a couple of years.

Before putting out any information in the public domain, Sagnik makes sure that every element of his content is well-researched and backed with credible data so that there is no misinterpretation of facts or quotes and ethical standards are maintained. To do so, Sagnik follows reputed websites like the Tennis Channel and Tennis TV, and renowned journalists on social media.

He is a fan of former player Roger Federer, and just like his favorite player, Sagnik likes to bring perfection to his write-ups by providing concise and on-point content. Speaking of the ‘GOAT’ debate, Sagnik believes that it is a bit unfair to compare the legends of the game from different eras who have played on different terms. But if he were to pick one, he’d go for Novak Djokovic based on his tally of 24 Grand Slam titles.

When not writing about tennis and technically analyzing the sport, which he believes are his 'forte', Sagnik indulges in reading books.

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Edited by SAGNIK DATTA