US Open 2025: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds, and pick

Match Details

Fixture: (2) Carlos Alcaraz vs (7) Novak Djokovic

Date: September 5, 2025

Tournament: US Open 2025

Round: Semifinal

Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, New York, USA

Category: Grand Slam

Surface: Hard

Prize Money: $90,000,000

Live Telecast: USA - ESPN | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN, RDS

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Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic preview

Carlos Alcaraz at the US Open 2025. (Photo: Getty)

Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic will clash in a blockbuster semifinal showdown at the US Open 2025.

Alcaraz advanced to the quarterfinals of the US Open without dropping a set. He beat Reilly Opelka, Mattia Bellucci, 32nd seed Luciano Darderi, and Arthur Rinderknech in the first four rounds. He was up against 20th seed Jiri Lehecka for a spot in the semifinals.

Alcaraz continued his good run of form here, outplaying Lehecka from start to finish. He broke his opponent's serve once in the first set, twice in the second set, and one last time in the fourth set to register a 6-4, 6-2, 6-4 win.

Following a routine win over Learner Tien in his opener, Djokovic needed four sets to get past Zachary Svajda and Cameron Norrie. He defeated qualifier Jan-Lennard Struff in straight sets to reach the quarterfinals, where he was up against fourth seed and last year's runner-up Taylor Fritz.

Djokovic didn't need any time to settle in, racing to a 3-0 lead and maintaining it until the end to claim the opening set. He led by a break in the second set but failed to serve it out at 5-4. Nevertheless, he snagged another break and closed out the set on his second attempt.

Fritz came roaring back in the third set to keep himself in contention. Neither player came close to a break point for most of the fourth set. However, that changed in an instant. The American saved a couple of match points while serving at 5-4 but Djokovic got the job done on his third match point to score a 6-3, 7-5, 3-6, 6-4 win.

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Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic head-to-head

Djokovic leads their rivalry 5-3. He won their previous meeting at the Australian Open 2025 in four sets.

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Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic odds

Player	Moneyline	Handicap Bets	Total Games
Carlos Alcaraz	-375	+1.5 (-900)	Over 37.5 (-115)
Novak Djokovic	+290	-1.5 (+425)	Under 37.5 (-125)

(Odds are sourced from BetMGM)

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Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic prediction

Novak Djokovic at the US Open 2025. (Photo: Getty)

Djokovic attained another milestone after beating Fritz for the 11th time. He became the oldest player to reach the semifinals of all Majors in a single season. He won 72 percent of his first serve points, and saved 11 of the 13 break points that he faced. He struck 33 winners compared to 40 unforced errors. He'll now aim to reach the final after falling in the semifinals of the previous three Majors this year.

Alcaraz has reached the semifinal of a Major without dropping a set for the first time in his career. He has dropped his serve just once across his five matches here so far. He didn't even face a single break point against Lehecka in the previous round.

Alcaraz will now try to one-up Djokovic on hardcourts for the first time. The latter has won all three of their meetings on hardcourts, including their quarterfinal showdown at the Australian Open this year. Even though Alcaraz has been in great form, he shall be the underdog in this match given his record against Djokovic.

Pick: Novak Djokovic to win in four sets.