US Open 2025: Coco Gauff vs Naomi Osaka preview, head-to-head, odds, prediction, and pick

Match Details

Fixture: (3) Coco Gauff vs (23) Naomi Osaka

Date: September 1, 2025

Tournament: US Open

Round: Fourth Round (Round of 16)

Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, New York, USA

Category: Grand Slam

Surface: Hard

Prize Money: $90,000,000

Live Telecast: USA - ESPN, ESPN+ | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN, RDS

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Coco Gauff vs Naomi Osaka preview

Gauff at the 2025 US Open (Image Source: Getty)

Third-seed Coco Gauff will take on 23rd-seed Naomi Osaka in the fourth round of the 2025 US Open on Monday, September 1. The winner will meet Marta Kostyuk or Karolina Muchova in the quarterfinals.

Gauff's North American hard-court swing commenced at the Canadian Open, where she lost to eventual champion Victoria Mboko in the fourth round. In Cincinnati, the American registered straight-set wins over Wang Xinyu and Lucia Bronzetti but failed to get past Jasmine Paolini in the quarterfinals.

At the US Open, Gauff defeated Ajla Tomljanovic, 6-4, 6-7(2), 7-5, and Donna Vekic, 7-6(5), 6-2, in the first and second rounds, respectively. Her most comprehensive win came against Magdalena Frech in the third round, as she limited her unforced errors and held her serve well to register a 6-3, 6-1 win.

Meanwhile, Osaka has been impressive on the tour lately, as she finished runner-up at the Canadian Open. The Japanese showed great dominance in the tournament, with five of her six wins coming in straight sets. She suffered a second-round exit at the Citi DC Open.

Osaka's campaign in New York started strongly with comfortable wins over Greet Minnen, 6-3, 6-4, and Hailey Baptiste, 6-3, 6-1, in the opening two rounds. She then faced Daria Kasatkina in the third round. Although her first-set bagel was cancelled out, she won one break point in the decider, which was enough to close out the match, 6-0, 4-6, 6-3.

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Coco Gauff vs Naomi Osaka head-to-head

Gauff leads the head-to-head 3-2. In their most recent meeting at the 2024 China Open, the American earned a walkover at 3-6, 6-4, when Osaka retired due to injury.

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Coco Gauff vs Naomi Osaka odds

Player Name	Moneyline	Handicap Bets	Total Games
Naomi Osaka	+115	+1.5 (-220)	Over 20.5 (-160)
Coco Gauff	-150	-1.5 (+150)	Under 20.5 (+110)

(Odds are sourced from BetMGM.)

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Coco Gauff vs Naomi Osaka prediction

Osaka in action at the 2025 US Open (Image Source: Getty)

Gauff's most preferred surfaces are hard and clay. Although the American has been impressive on clay this year, her form on hard courts has not matched that success. She has yet to get past the quarterfinals of a hard-court event. Her win-loss record on the surface stands at 15-7.

Osaka already has two final appearances on hard courts this year, with fewer tournaments played compared to Gauff. She has been impressive overall at the New York Major, particularly excelling with her powerful serves, having hit 20 aces in three matches so far.

Although Gauff is better ranked and has the head-to-head advantage, Osaka's current form makes her the favorite to get through to the next round. The American has been creating plenty of unforced errors, which could be easily exploited by the experienced Japanese.

Pick: Osaka to win in three sets.