US Open 2025: Daniil Medvedev vs Benjamin Bonzi preview, head-to-head, odds, prediction and pick

Match Details

Fixture: (13) Daniil Medvedev vs Benjamin Bonzi

Date: August 24, 2025

Tournament: 2025 US Open

Round: First Round (Round of 128)

Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, New York, USA

Category: Grand Slam

Surface: Hard

Prize Money: $90,000,000

Live Telecast: USA - ESPN, ESPN+ | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN, RDS

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Daniil Medvedev vs Benjamin Bonzi preview

Medvedev at the ATP Masters 1000 National Bank Open - Source: Getty

Medvedev arrives in New York trying to reset after a choppy year by his standards. The former No. 1 sits near the edge of the Top 15 with a 2025 ATP win-loss record of 26-17 and no titles so far.

He’s had some bright spots, including a semifinal finish at Indian Wells and a runner-up finish in Halle, but also suffered early Slam losses, including a shock first-round defeat to Bonzi at Wimbledon.

Bonzi, meanwhile, has rebuilt momentum in bursts. The Frenchman, a former No. 42, has hovered around the Top 50-60 and owns a 10-16 record this season. He played through qualifiers early in the season but has faced early losses regularly.

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Daniil Medvedev vs Benjamin Bonzi head-to-head

Medvedev and Bonzi are set to meet for the third time on the main tour, and history surprisingly favors the Frenchman. Their last two clashes came in the opening rounds of Grand Slams, with Bonzi pulling off shock upsets on both occasions.

Most recently, at Wimbledon, in July, Bonzi left Medvedev visibly frustrated with a 7-6(2) 3-6 7-6(3) 6-2 win. Before that, Bonzi also got the better of him at Roland Garros 2017.

Interestingly, Medvedev’s only win over Bonzi came way back in 2017, not on the main stage, but at a Challenger event in Brest. Their US Open meeting will now add another chapter to this unexpected rivalry.

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Daniil Medvedev vs Benjamin Bonzi odds

Player Name	Moneyline	Handicap Bets	Total Games
Daniil Medvedev	-425	-6.5 (+105)	Over 34.5 (-145)
Benjamin Bonzi	+300	+6.5 (-155)	Under 34.5 (+100)

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Daniil Medvedev vs Benjamin Bonzi prediction

Benjamin Bonzi at the Cincinnati Open 2025 - Source: Getty

Medvedev’s hard-court ceiling remains elite, but his 2025 results have been uneven, and the Wimbledon loss to Bonzi is fresh. His overall level across the North American swing typically trends up. However, in the lead-up to the New York Major this year, he has reached the quarterfinals in Washington but faced early losses in Canada and Cincinnati.

Meanwhile, Bonzi has notched up some impressive wins in the lead-up to the Slam. He defeated Lorenzo Musetti, Matteo Arnaldi, and Stefanos Tsitsipas in Cincinnati.

The Frenchman has the psychological edge from two Slam wins in this matchup. Expect a tighter contest than the rankings imply.

Pick: Medvedev in five sets