US Open 2025: Madison Keys vs Renata Zarazua preview, head-to-head, odds, prediction and pick

Match Details

Fixture: (6) Madison Keys vs Renata Zarazua

Date: August 25, 2025

Tournament: 2025 US Open

Round: First Round (Round of 128)

Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, New York, USA

Category: Grand Slam

Surface: Hard

Prize Money: $90,000,000

Live Telecast: USA - ESPN, ESPN+ | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN, RDS

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Madison Keys vs Renata Zarazua preview

Keys at the 2025 US Open - Source: Getty

Madison Keys, ranked No. 6, enters the US Open with a 37-12 record and two titles already under her belt in 2025. Her season highlights include a sensational Australian Open triumph, where she beat both the world No. 1 and No. 2, and another title success in Adelaide.

Despite not clinching hardware later in the season, she has consistently gone deep in tournaments, including a run to the quarterfinals in Canada.

Zarazua, by contrast, is currently ranked around No. 82 with a 20-24 record for the year. She has had to fight through qualifiers at many events and has not yet claimed a WTA title in 2025, though a late 2024 Challenger title on clay boosted her profile.

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Madison Keys vs Renata Zarazua head-to-head

Keys and Zarazua have faced each other once on the WTA Tour, with their only meeting coming at the 2024 French Open. Keys, seeded No. 14 at the time, proved too strong for the Mexican player and claimed a straight-sets victory, 6-3, 6-2, in the opening round on clay. With that result, Keys leads the head-to-head 1-0.

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Madison Keys vs Renata Zarazua odds

Player Name	Moneyline	Handicap Bets	Total Games
Madison Keys	-1200	-6.5 (-118)	Over 18.5 (-118)
Renata Zarazua	+650	+6.5 (-145)	Under 18.5 (-120)

(Odds sourced from BetMGM)

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Madison Keys vs Renata Zarazua prediction

Renata Zarazua at the National Bank Open - Source: Getty

Keys has enjoyed a strong hard-court swing post-Wimbledon, going 5-2, including a quarterfinal showing in Canada, falling to Clara Tauson, and reaching the Round of 16 in Cincinnati before a close loss to Elena Rybakina. Despite an inconsistent middle of the season, she remains one of the fiercest competitors in the draw.

Zarazua, by contrast, has experienced a more inconsistent stretch. Since Wimbledon, she is 2-3, with early exits in Canada, Cincinnati, and Monterrey. The Mexican has shown glimpses of fight, but the lack of match rhythm on hard courts is a concern heading into this matchup.

In form and pedigree, Keys clearly holds the edge. Zarazua’s toughness and grit make her a worthy opponent, but this matchup projects as an early test that should ultimately tilt in favor of the American powerhouse.

Pick: Keys to win in straight sets.