US Open 2025: Naomi Osaka vs Karolina Muchova preview, head-to-head, odds, prediction and pick

Match Details

Fixture: (23) Naomi Osaka vs (11) Karolina Muchova

Date: September 3, 2025

Tournament: 2025 US Open

Round: Quarterfinals

Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, New York, USA

Category: Grand Slam

Surface: Hard

Prize Money: $90,000,000

Live Telecast: USA - ESPN, ESPN+ | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN, RDS

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Naomi Osaka vs Karolina Muchova preview

Naomi Osaka will take on Karolina Muchova in the quarterfinals of the US Open. She will feel gutted not to have won more titles so far. Apart from runner-up finishes in Auckland and Montreal, she reached the fourth round in Miami and Rome. She also competed in the Wimbledon Championships, but was defeated by Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in the third round.

The Japanese started her campaign in New York with confident wins over Hailey Baptiste and Daria Kasatkina in the initial few rounds. She then eliminated Coco Gauff en route to the quarterfinals, 6-3, 6-2. The 23rd seed has only dropped one set so far.

Muchova at the 2025 US Open - Day 9 - Source: Getty

Meanwhile, Muchova has had an ordinary season, considering her high standards. After semifinal runs in Linz and Dubai, she also reached the fourth round in Montreal. Despite a spirited performance against Madison Keys, the American defeated her at the Canadian Open, 4-6, 6-3, 7-5.

The Czech has been excellent at the US Open so far. She started her campaign by cruising past Sorana Cirstea and Linda Noskova in the initial few rounds and then brushed aside Marta Kostyuk in the fourth. She outlasted Kostyuk in a thrilling three-set bout, 6-3, 6-7(0), 6-3.

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Naomi Osaka vs Karolina Muchova head-to-head

The head-to-head between the duo is poised at 2-2. Muchova won their most recent encounter in the 2021 Madrid Open.

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Naomi Osaka vs Karolina Muchova odds

Player Name	Moneyline	Handicap Bets	Total Games
Naomi Osaka	-275	-1.5(-110)	Under 20.5(+110)
Karolina Muchova	+210	+1.5(-130)	Over 20.5(-160)

All odds are sourced from BetMGM.

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Naomi Osaka vs Karolina Muchova prediction

Osaka deserves a place in the last eight for her constant efforts this year. She also dropped down a level to play in Saint Malo and work on her rhythm. She's a two-time champion in New York and will now know how to absorb the pressure in the next round.

Muchova, on the contrary, hasn't achieved a significant result at any of the events so far. She's showcased her resilience and match fitness with close wins in the last few rounds. She hopes to recover well before the quarterfinals and present a stern challenge for Osaka.

Muchova's accuracy will go toe-to-toe against Osaka's power in the last eight. Both players are skilled at volleying the tennis ball. Considering their freshness in New York and performances in the previous few rounds, Osaka will be a slight favorite to come out on top.

Pick: Osaka to win in three sets.