US Open women's quarterfinals preview: Awaiting the explosion of drama

It’s crunch time at the US Open, but you wouldn’t know it from the relatively stress-free and low-key manner in which the top 8 women have strolled to the quarterfinals. After the flurry of excitement at young British upstart Laura Robson sending Kim Clijsters into early retirement, the tournament has progressed without incident. Even the upsets have had a strangely subdued air about them – Robson followed up her breakthrough victory by dumping Na Li out of the tournament, and Marion Bartoli arrested Petra Kvitova‘s sizzling summer hardcourt run with a semi-beatdown, but neither of those results captured the imagination of the drama-hungry New York crowd. The closest thing we got to a dramatic epic was the Sara Errani-Angelique Kerber 4th round tussle yesterday, but the quality of the play in the match made sure that no one would mistake it for a classic. Will things pick up now that the quarterfinals are all set to begin?

Quarterfinal 1: Victoria Azarenka vs Samantha Stosur

Head-to-head: Azarenka leads 6-0

This is the only quarterfinal in which the top-ranked players made their seed, but that doesn’t necessarily mean it will be the most hard-fought match in the Round of 8. Sure, Stosur is the defending champion, and has displayed a surprising lack of stage fright despite being put in the spotlight for much of the first four rounds. She hasn’t dropped a set all tournament, and her serve and forehand both seem to be clicking, which is always a bad sign for her opponents. But at the moment, it’s unlikely for Azarenka to be bothered by any kind of sign, because she has absolutely steamrolled her way to the quarters, dropping only 10 games so far. The World No. 1 has looked like a woman on a mission, or as close to a woman on a mission as you can look while wearing that bright lime-green outfit, and comes into this match with an overwhelming head-to-head record against Stosur. Add to that the fact that Stosur’s two biggest strengths – the big serve and forehand – play right into Azarenka’s strongest suits – the high-percentage return and the laser-like backhand, and it’s hard to imagine anything other than a comfortable win for the Belarussian. Still, Stosur is the defending champion here for a reason, and the confidence of her breakthrough run here last year ought to give her a fair deal of confidence to at least challenge the hard-charging Azarenka.

Prediction: Azarenka in two close sets

Quarterfinal 2: Maria Sharapova vs Marion Bartoli

Head-to-head: Sharapova leads 4-0

Maria Sharapova seems to be doing a good job lately of proving that in her post-shoulder surgery career, she’s a much more potent force on slower surfaces than she is on quick ones. She hasn’t won a tournament outside clay all year, and neither her New York campaign nor her Wimbledon outing this year have been anywhere close to as authoritative as her Roland Garros run. Fortunately for her, she has dominated her rivalry against Bartoli on surfaces outside clay, winning all sets in their four matches (of which three were on hardcourts and one on grass). But Sharapova’s serve has looked shaky at times in this tournament – she made as many as eight double faults in the 4th round against Nadia Petrova. And Bartoli, who can hit some devastating returns off both wings, is coming off a confidence-boosting win over Petra Kvitova, one of the title favorites. The key to the match will likely come down to which woman can attack the other’s serve consistently enough, and Sharapova’s improved return game will hold her in good stead in this department. Bartoli will, as she always is, be prepared for a good scrap, but expect Sharapova to prevail.

Prediction: Sharapova in two sets

Quarterfinal 3: Sara Errani vs Roberta Vinci

Head-to-head: Errani leads 3-2

Sara Errani has been having a career year – she reached her first Slam quarterfinal in Australia, and followed that up with a rousing run all the way to the finals at Roland Garros. Her mind-numbing consistency and all-court expertise have bamboozled more than a few opponents this year, and yesterday she almost had Angelique Kerber tearing out her hair in frustration. Very few players can hit through Errani’s tireless defense, and admittedly, Roberta Vinci isn’t exactly among the most powerful players on tour. What Vinci does bring to the table, though, is an array of slices, spins, volleys and dropshots, with the occasional baseline blast thrown into the mix, that can unsettle a rhythm player like Errani. Each player will try to lull the other into playing the match on her terms; yesterday, they both did that brilliantly against their opponents (Kerber and Agnieszka Radwanska). It will be a fight to the finish tomorrow, and at this moment, the results looks almost like a toss-up.

Prediction: Errani in three sets

Quarterfinal 4: Serena Williams vs Ana Ivanovic

Head-to-head: Serena leads 3-0

I don’t know about you, but I’m finding it hard to wrap my head around the fact that this is Ivanovic’s first Slam quarterfinal since her title run at the French Open back in 2008. Has her downslide really been that sharp? You could say she lucked out a little at this tournament – the Serb is yet to face a seeded player, and only barely scraped past Sloane Stephens in the third round. But she is hitting her forehand with plenty of venom alright, and her serving issues don’t seem as alarming as they used to. Unfortunately for her, though, her first seeded opponent IS an alarming prospect: Serena Williams has shown absolutely no mercy to her first four opponents in a terrifying run that reached its peak yesterday in a double bagel demolition of the hapless Andrea Hlavackova. To make matters worse for Ivanovic, she has never even come close to defeating Serena in their three past meetings. The American does just about everything better than Ivanovic, and doesn’t seem to be in a mood to let something as unimportant as a former top-ranked opponent disturb her stroll through the tournament.

Prediction: Serena in two sets