Why Novak Djokovic is not the favorite for French Open 2025 despite title No. 100 to give him confidence

Novak Djokovic won the 2025 Geneva Open by playing some of the best tennis we have seen him play this year. The Serb has generally had a pretty underwhelming year. We can’t really say it’s been a poor year because he’s had some moments. Winning a trophy, making the Miami Open final, and having a decent run in Melbourne are respectable results.

But it’s not really what Djokovic is after. He wants to win majors, and nothing he has put forward this year on the tennis court should give anybody major confidence that he will be able to get one. Getting that 25th would be a huge accomplishment for Djokovic, but it’s not likely to happen in Paris.

There are a couple of reasons for that. Let’s throw out his prior performances on clay because they have been pretty poor. He showed in Geneva that that was not the real Djokovic. The real one, which is likely to show up in Paris, was the one we saw in Geneva.

It was a decent performance from Djokovic, quite good at times, and that kind of Djokovic will be dangerous in Paris, but he’s still unlikely to challenge for the trophy. Let’s take a moment and recognize him for winning his 100th career trophy because that’s what happened in Geneva.

It’s a fantastic achievement and a really well-rounded, nice number on his resume. It’s also a signifier that he’s getting closer to his best tennis, but he’s not there yet, and that’s precisely the problem. He is not there yet, and it’s unlikely that he’ll get there because what we remember of Djokovic might simply not be there.

The last time we saw it was last year at the Olympics when he overcame Carlos Alcaraz in the final. Since then, we haven’t really seen it. It’s not even been close, and another problem is that his body isn’t really cooperating at the highest level anymore. On clay, he hasn't looked as sharp.

Even in Geneva, he didn’t look as sharp. He barely won that final against Hubert Hurkacz, who is neither in good form nor some clay juggernaut. Djokovic was down a break in the final set and could have easily lost that had the Pole held his nerve—but he didn’t.

So even if the Geneva Open run has been good, it’s still not something that should give anybody confidence that the Serb can win the French Open.

Why Djokovic won’t win the 2025 French Open

2024 Summer Olympics - Day 9 - Source: Getty

With that, we come to the part where we’ll break down why he won’t win the French Open. His level hasn’t been very impressive lately. Well, it improved quite a bit in Geneva, but it’s still not close to his best.

His body looked sharper than usual, but it’s not the Djokovic we know from the past. And while those things will contribute to him not winning the event, the real issue is the opposition.

How many players right now are better than Djokovic? One? Two? Three? One could make an argument for up to five players right now, but it doesn’t matter. The real problem is that one is already one too many. Novak Djokovic right now can’t beat Carlos Alcaraz on a clay court in a best-of-five match.

He could hypothetically, but we’ve seen enough from both recently to know that it’s pretty unlikely. A match with Alcaraz would be long and gruesome, and can Djokovic handle that? I don’t think he can at this age and stage of his career.

Then there is Jannik Sinner. Can he beat him? I highly doubt it. So with Djokovic, it’s not just the fact that he’s not playing his best tennis. It’s that, but also some other things on top of that. If it were only his tennis, at least it’s something he can control. If he plays well, then he can win. If not, then he won’t win.

It’s that despite playing as well as he can, he still isn’t likely to win because there are players who are simply better than him. There are two for sure and possibly even more. That’s the problem.

It’s a reality for Djokovic, one that he admitted to already in Miami when Jakub Menšík bested him. Is that a top-10 player right now? Not quite, but he was still good enough to beat Djokovic.

Ultimately, time will tell, but some things in tennis are rather clear. To us, it’s clear that he won’t win, but if he does, we’ll salute him as the greatest to ever do it. With 25 Grand Slams in his trophy cabinet, how could anyone argue against it?