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Finn Balor is set to challenge Brock Lesnar for the WWE Universal Championship at the 2019 Royal Rumble pay-per-view.
Brock Lesnar is a six time World Champion in the WWE, and a one time UFC heavyweight Champion. His last WWE world championship reign was the longest of the modern era at over 500 days.
He is a former NCAA collegiate wrestling champion, and he has won a Royal Rumble match. He has also main evented three WrestleManias. He has never been pinned or submitted in the main event of a WrestleMania.
Finn Balor is the first ever WWE Universal Champion. Unfortunately, he was forced to relinquish that championship due to injury the very next day.
His only WrestleMania match till date was the triple-threat WWE Intercontinental Championship match that opened the main card of WrestleMania 34; a match he failed to win. He has never won a Royal Rumble match. His one day Universal Championship reign is his only main-roster championship.
A lot has been written about this match.
I myself have written about why Finn Balor will defeat Brock Lesnar, as well as how he could achieve this.
If only wishing made it so.
Let me preface this by saying that if it were up to me, Finn Balor would defeat Brock Lesnar for the WWE Universal Championship.
Alas, it is not up to me.
As much as a lot of people want Finn Balor to win this match; he is unlikely to do so. Indeed it is extremely likely that Brock Lesnar will take him to suplex city, and retain his WWE Universal Championship.
Lets find out why.
#1 Finn Balor is not big enough
The simplest explanation for why Finn Balor is not going to defeat Brock Lesnar is this: Finn Balor is just too small.
Brock Lesnar is an absolute behemoth, as he weighs in at 286 pounds. He is a true heavyweight.
Finn Balor has an absolutely shredded physique, but he is a comparatively smaller man. He weighs in at 190 pounds, and he would not look out of place in WWE's cruiser-weight division on 205 Live.
Finn Balor gives up almost 100 pounds to Brock Lesnar. In a real fight, Brock Lesnar would obliterate him.
The WWE has traditionally been known as 'The Land of the Giants'; Brock Lesnar looks like a traditional WWE Champion, and Finn Balor does not. Even AJ Styles and Daniel Bryan, two of the greatest wrestlers ever, failed to defeat Brock Lesnar. Finn Balor may very well put up a fight, may get us to believe, but Brock Lesnar will eventually prevail.
Perception matters in this business.
Presentation matters in this business.
And the eye test says that Finn Balor is too small to believably defeat Brock Lesnar.
#2 Finn Balor's main roster record
Brock Lesnar returned to the WWE in 2012. In that time he has won the WWE World Heavyweight Championship once. He did so by beating up a full-time, top babyface - John Cena for about twelve minutes, in the single most dominating display in a WWE Championship match anyone had ever seen.
That was at SummerSlam 2014; an event he has main-evented every year since his come-back, bar 2013.
He lost the WWE World Heavyweight Championship in the main event of WrestleMania 31, but was not pinned or submitted. Indeed, he was not even involved in the decision. He has held the WWE Universal Championship on two separate occasions; his last reign was over 500 days.
Most importantly, he decisively ended the Undertaker's 21-0 WrestleMania undefeated streak.
Brock Lesnar has only been beaten by five men since he returned to the WWE; John Cena, Triple H, The Undertaker, Roman Reigns, and Bill Goldberg. Five of these men are veritable legends of this industry, and indeed some of its biggest names ever.
Roman Reigns was undoubtedly the face of the WWE, and had main evented four straight WrestleManias before he defeated Lesnar. Brock Lesnar has also defeated each of these men at least once.
Other men he has defeated are Randy Orton, Daniel Bryan, AJ Styles, Dean Ambrose, Braun Strowman, and Samoa Joe; all major WWE stars, and four world champions.
Finn Balor may be the first ever WWE Universal Champion; but he has not done much of anything after being forced to relinquish it due to injury. He only got his rematch for the championship two years later.
Moreover, the admittedly excellent match was overshadowed by what happened after it; The Shield reformed to thwart Braun Strowman's Money in the Bank cash-in attempt.
He has never won at WrestleMania. He has never held another main roster championship. And to put it bluntly, he has floundered in the mid-card ever since he had to relinquish his Universal Championship.
Finn Balor may be an excellent competitor, and beloved by WWE fans everywhere. But comparing the WWE records of these two men leaves no doubt as to how this match will end.
#3 The build to this match has been inadequate
Love him or hate him, one cannot deny that Brock Lesnar has been consistently presented as a HUGE deal in the WWE. Just look at his list of accomplishments. Beating him should be a star-making moment.
Only five men have defeated him since he returned to the WWE. Even the great Randy Orton failed to defeat him. Moreover, only one relatively newer superstar, Roman Reigns, has defeated Brock Lesnar. The rest were all established mega-stars. Even Roman Reigns failed to defeat Brock Lesnar on four occasions before finally prevailing.
So the question is this - is the WWE going to have Brock Lesnar lose his Universal Championship to a replacement challenger in a match that has had two weeks worth of build up? Or will Brock Lesnar lose his Universal Championship at WrestleMania in a match that has been promoted in advance, and has received all the fanfare of a world championship match on the road to WrestleMania?
I believe the latter is far more likely.
#4 The looming shadow of Seth Rollins
All of the reasons I have set out thus far can be explained away. If the WWE really wants Finn Balor to be the top babyface on Monday Night RAW, Finn Balor will defeat Brock Lesnar.
However, there is another man being primed for that spot. A certain Architect. The man Finn Balor defeated to win the Universal Championship; Seth Rollins.
Seth Rollins had an excellent 2018; he started the year teaming up with Jason Jordan, but completely rejuvenated his career as a singles superstar. He consistently had the best matches on RAW, and was one of the top performers on every pay-per-view.
Something had finally clicked; the ring work, the mic work, the attitude. The fans were ready to embrace him as the top babyface on RAW long before he was slotted into the position due to Roman Reigns' unfortunate illness.
His momentum was somewhat stunted by an underwhelming feud with Dean Ambrose, but that looks to be behind him. Last week on Monday Night RAW, he failed to recapture the Intercontinental Championship, but was protected, as he was not involved in the decision.
Seth Rollins is set to move on to bigger things. Seth Rollins is due to move on to Brock Lesnar.
This match has been hinted at recently; Rollins would not call out Lesnar in his promos if that were not the case. And unlike Finn Balor, Seth Rollins has consistently been treated as a big deal by the WWE.
He is a two time WWE Champion, Money in the Bank winner, and successfully cashed in his Money in the Bank contract in the main event of a WrestleMania. He defeated the legendary Triple H at WrestleMania. And even when he has not been in the world championship picture, he has held the Intercontinental or Tag-Team Championships.
Seth Rollins is primed to be the top male babyface in the WWE. A WrestleMania 35 bout with Brock Lesnar for the Universal Championship beckons.
Brock Lesnar will defeat Finn Balor at the Royal Rumble because Balor is the right guy in the right place at the wrong time.
Agree? Disagree? Let us know in the comments!
