What if AEW fails in its first year?

Wrestling pundits have been buzzing for months about the prospect of AEW posing legitimate competition to WWE. What started out feeling like a pipe dream has grown more and more real. There was the reveal of Tony Khan as a billionaire backer, Chris Jericho and Kenny Omega choosing AEW over WWE, and the latest rumors about AEW talking with Turner and other prospective big names to host their television product.

We could be looking at a new era of competition in American wrestling at its highest level. Of course, things might not work out that way.

While AEW has potential and resources, it still has a long way to go. What if the buzz wears off, some of the business decisions are off, the TV ratings aren’t there, or AEW otherwise fails in its first year? This article takes a look at what they potential outcome might mean for the wrestling world and particular stars from it.

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#5. Ring of Honor and New Japan make pushes

While a lot of fans have focused on the prospect of AEW challenging WWE for wrestling supremacy, a more concrete story in progress may well be how AEW has leapfrogged every other promotion.

Whereas Ring of Honor and Impact Wrestling have long been in contention for the spot of the number two US based promotion, and New Japan has asserted itself as the top entity from abroad, AEW has acquired much of the top tier talent that had worked on these rosters, or might have been on their way to them.

If AEW doesn’t work out, there will be quite a few talents left without a clear path forward, and ROH and NJPW will probably be in the best position to gobble up these names. Moreover, with AEW out of the picture, these second tier promotions may seize on the opportunity to push for aggressive growth.

While neither may be in a position to supplant WWE as the world leader in wrestling, either could shore up their spot as number two, and NJPW in particular could push harder at building its US fan base.

#4. NXT gobbles up talent

NXT would be a fitting home for many AEW talents if the new company doesn't work out.

Promotions like NJPW, Ring of Honor, and Impact Wrestling may grasp at top talent from AEW if the new company doesn’t pan out. There also remains, however, WWE and its NXT brand.

For the last five years, NXT has functioned as not only a developmental territory, but WWE’s answer to hardcore fans who want a more traditional, match-centered wrestling product. While talents like Kenny Omega, The Young Bucks, and The Lucha Bros. could conceivably jump straight to the main roster, their style would probably fit better in NXT.

If WWE’s closest thing to the threat of competition flops, WWE will shore up its spot as the place to be for any wrestler trying to build a mainstream legacy and land a big money deal. We can expect NXT to cherry pick the top shelf talent that comes available in the event that AEW fails.

#3. Cody Rhodes is blackballed from WWE

Cody Rhodes may not get another shot with WWE if his attempt to compete fails.

There are quite a few AEW talents whom WWE would probably welcome (or welcome back) into the fold if AEW doesn’t work out. Cody Rhodes will be an interesting case.

Rhodes was a WWE mainstay for nearly a decade and probably could have rode out most of his career under the WWE banner in one capacity or another. He elected to try his hand bouncing around smaller promotions and was successful enough that WWE reportedly offered him a lot of money to come back before the announcement of AEW.

If AEW fails, Rhodes will not only face the stigma of having first walked away from, then turned down a return offer from WWE. He’ll suffer from having started his own promotion with all indications that he meant to compete.

If AEW succeeds for a while, Rhodes could still get another WWE opportunity like Eric Bischoff or Jeff Jarrett before him. If the company fails quickly, though, Rhodes may become a cautionary tale and not get another chance.

#2 Chris Jericho is caught in limbo

In the twilight of his career, Chris Jericho may find himself in an uncomfortable spot if AEW fails.

Chris Jericho rolled the dice in signing with AEW. He was a top level WWE Superstar, whom WWE wanted back in the fold, but who chose instead to work elsewhere. Jericho has since made no bones about talking about how he feels blackballed by WWE, including not getting to interview any WWE talent for his podcast in the build to WrestleMania.

Jericho’s a big enough star that WWE probably wouldn’t rule out accepting him back into the fold. However, with the dark cloud of his disloyalty hanging overhead, it’s doubtful WWE would give him another shot at the very top.

Would Jericho come back for any less? As he approaches fifty years of age, he probably doesn’t have many years of top level performance left in him. In the end, if AEW fails, Jericho legacy may be one of the biggest casualties. He probably wouldn’t get the chance to finish out his in ring career in the high profile way he’d want to, and may even get snubbed for his otherwise inevitable WWE Hall of Fame consideration for years.

#1. No hope for competition

If AEW can't survive its first year, it may become a cautionary tale.

Pundits have generally held that there is no chance of anyone competing with WWE in the foreseeable future. That AEW has come about and threatened to do just that is pretty remarkable, and only came together on account of a confluence of events that included Tony Khan bank rolling, Cody Rhodes’s creative vision, and the unlikely success story of All In.

If AEW fails, it not only means that this company won’t be competing with WWE—it reaffirms the idea that no one can. Of all of the major players in launching this new brand, Khan is probably the most important and least replaceable for the resources he brings to the table.

It’s difficult to fathom any billionaire or company with those kinds of resources trying something like this again if AEW is an outright flop right out of the gate. So, if AEW fails in its first year, the case is probably closed on competition at the top of the wrestling world.