3. Balor retains

There’s a time-honored tradition of the Royal Rumble winner going on to triumph at WrestleMania over the reigning champion. Seth Rollins would fit that narrative well as a popular star and a workhorse who genuinely comes across as someone who has earned the opportunity to shine at WrestleMania. Not every Royal Rumble winner succeeds in his or her championship pursuits, though.
If Finn Balor had defeated Brock Lesnar at the Royal Rumble, it probably would have represented a feel-good underdog victory more or less on par with when Eddie Guerrero defeated Lesnar back at No Way Out 2004. As such, while fans are behind Rollins, they’d probably be at least equally behind Balor in this hypothetical WrestleMania scenario. It would feel like both a letdown and potentially another momentous career setback if Balor were to lose the belt so quickly after regaining it. No, if Balor had beaten Lesnar, the odds are WWE would have let him run with it past WrestleMania season.