Gerrit Cole vs Zack Greinke Player Predictions for Yankees vs Royals - April 30th | MLB 2022

New York Yankees ace Gerrit Cole will square off against veteran Zack Greinke of the Kansas City Royals, Saturday April 30, at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. The game will kick off a three-game series between the two clubs stretching from Saturday to Monday. The winner will make some much-needed standings progress in their respective American League divisions.

Cole will be looking to return to his old self on Saturday. The four-time All-Star has started four games this April and come away with a win in only one of them. His distance hasn't been present, either, as he's only pitched eighteen innings over those four starts.

Zack Greinke's April has been the opposite. The 38-year-old is making marvelous use of his one-year contract with Kansas City, putting up 2.86 ERA over four starts and twenty-two total innings.

How will these two perform against each other in Saturday's rubber match? Let's take a look.

Gerrit Cole Preview

Gerrit Cole's $324 million contract begs for better performance than he's given his club this April

Gerrit Cole carries a 1-0 record with a 4.00 ERA and 1.17 WHIP entering Saturday's start against the Royals. His club has managed to stay afloat in the American League East despite his poor performance. The Yankees carry a 13-6 record into the series against Kansas and Cole hopes to add to that.

So what's the righty going to need to pull out of his bag of tricks to turn things around? Quite simply, Cole needs to find his pin-point accuracy again (we know he has it from previous years). He needs to paint the edges of the strike zone. According to Baseball Savant, Cole generates more swings-and-misses than 86% of MLB pitchers. He also gets players to chase balls 73% more than anyone else, and his strikeout percentage is in the top 73rd percentile. His fastball is one of the best in the league, with an average velocity in the MLB's 91st percentile.

All that sounds great, so what's the problem? Here it is: perhaps Cole has become a little too confident with his fastball. He's been pitching it down the middle or top of the strikezone too often and batters are eating it up. His barrel and hard-hit percentage are in the league's bottom 31st percentile, meaning batters are easily finding ways to make hard contact and powerfully put balls in play.

"Cole Train Comin' Through." - @New York Yankees

Here's the solution. Like all velocity pitchers, Cole needs to adjust. He's got a beautiful slider and he also has an average curveball. Having both those pitches is an asset for any major-leaguer, and Cole needs to utilize them more often. He only pitches his slider 17% of the time and it generates swinging strikes on 42% of those deliveries. That's an insane rate. With those numbers, Cole should be going to the slider every time he's got a batter down two strikes. It's breaks late and looks just like one of his juicy fastballs milliseconds before it dives for the right side of the plate.

Zack Greinke Preview

38-year-old Zack Greinke has turned the clock back to his better self this April

Zack Greinke is 38, but this April he's looked like he did back in 2019 when he was 35. Not exactly an age you'd consider spritely, but that year Greinke posted a phenomenal 2.93 ERA over 208.2 innings of work. After struggling with the Houston Astros over the past few season, the veteran appears to have found a groove again in Kansas City. Thus far, he's posted a 2.86 ERA over 22 innings of work.

Zack Greinke has never been a lights-out strikeout pitcher, but he's always found ways to get the job done. He uses his low-velocity fastball (which averages just 89 MPH) about 36% of the time, and then mixes in his filthy curveball 22% of the time.

He doesn't get batters swinging and missing very often (his whiff percentage is in the MLB's bottom three percentile). But he gets them to ground out softly. Remember how Gerrit Cole's hard-hit percentage was among the worst in the league? Well, Greinke is the opposite. Batters have only been hitting his pitchers with an average exit velocity of 89.7 MPH, which is lower than 84% of pitchers in the league.

"Zack Greinke, 87mph Fastball & 87mph Changeup. Remember: 'It doesn't have to make sense, if it's Zack Greinke.'" - @Rob Friedman

Greinke also decieves hitters with his slider and changeup, which he throws with speed similar to his fastball. His slider tends beautifully down and away to the right side of the plate, and his changeup averages 86 MPH. He likes to throw it inside and get batters to choke on it. It's just another way he generates soft contact.

Gerrit Cole vs the Kansas City Royals lineup

Gerrit Cole has only pitched against this Kansas City lineup (at least one vaguely similar to it) once in the past year. On June 22, 2021, he went seven innings, allowing just three hits. Unfortunately, one of those hits was a home run and Cole allowed a total of two runs. His squad dropped the match 6-5.

Zack Greinke vs the New York Yankees lineup

Zack Greinke has seen plenty of this Yankees lineup in the past year and it hasn't been pretty. On May 4, 2021, the righty managed only four innings and allowed three hits, four walks, and three runs. His Astros dropped the match 7-3. Later in the season on July 10, Greinke again only lasted four innings against the Yanks. This time, however, he only allowed one hit and one run, but his Astros still lost 1-0.

Gerrit Cole vs Zack Greinke

This matchup could be described as velocity versus anti-velocity. Gerrit Cole is going to either come into this game firing or being more conservative by utilizing his slider and other off-speed pitches more. He's got adjustments to make if he wants to turn things around, but Greinke just needs to keep doing what he's been doing. The 38-year-old will look to continue his deceptive pitching style and will hope that this Yankees lineup doesn't remember his stuff too well.