Kevin Kiermaier: Will Toronto Blue Jays' new-look outfield outperform in the 2023 season?

The Toronto Blue Jays added an outfielder in free agency. Former Tampa Bay Rays centerfielder Kevin Kiermaier to a contract. He has always been one of the best outfield defenders in all of baseball and the Blue Jays seem attracted to that.

Their outfield will now look very different than the one they featured during last season's Wild Card campaign. They traded Teoscar Hernandez away to the Seattle Mariners, too.

George Springer will likely still man centerfield and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. will take one of the corner spots. Kiermaier, with Whit Merrifield and Cana Biggio (infielders by trade) as potential depth.

If they don't sign anyone else (though Michael Brantley, Joey Gallo, A.J. Pollock, Andrew Benintendi and others are available), their outfield will feature Kiermaier, Springer and Gurriel. How might they perform this season?

---

How will the Blue Jays outfield do with new addition Kevin Kiermaier?

Fangraphs' projections expect the former Rays star to be a below-average hitter with an 86 wRC+. They also expect him to record 1.1 fWAR in about 100 games. He missed that many last season due to injury.

Gurriel is expected to be better offensively, with a 117 wRC+. That only translates to 1.8 fWAR, though. The real production will come from Springer. The projections think he'll have a 132 wRC+ and 3.9 fWAR.

George Springer will be the best outfielder next year in Toronto

In total, that adds up to 6.8 wins and a 111 wRC+. Last season, the Blue Jays outfield with Hernandez was worth 7.6 wins and had a 125 wRC+. The projections don't love Kiermaier.

There is always a chance that they will overperform on those expectations. Gurriel is capable of putting together a really solid year at the plate. Springer is capable of playing at an All-MLB level and could have a really strong year.

It's clear that the Jays, even though they love Kiermaier's defense, have made their outfield a little worse with their moves this offseason. There's still time to make additions, but if this is their outfield, don't expect them to do the heavy lifting on offense for the young and aspiring Blue Jays.