Mariners vs. Tigers: Game 1 prediction, lineups, odds, injuries, and picks - July 11, 2025

The Seattle Mariners and Detroit Tigers open a compelling weekend series at Comerica Park tonight, with two of the AL’s nastiest arms set to clash. Tarik Skubal has been nearly untouchable at home, while Luis Castillo is coming off a gem of his own.

Add in red-hot Randy Arozarena and power-packed Riley Greene, and this matchup promises a tense, playoff-style atmosphere between two teams chasing AL Wild Card positioning.

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Mariners vs. Tigers: Game 1 Pitcher & Hitter Matchups

Starting Pitchers

Luis Castillo (Mariners)

Luis Castillo has quietly pieced together a strong campaign, posting a 5-5 mark and 3.31 ERA with 87 whiffs in 95 innings.

He was brilliant in his last start, firing seven scoreless frames with eight punchouts against Pittsburgh. Castillo thrives on weak contact and timely strikeouts, exactly what Seattle will count on versus Detroit's deep lineup.

Tarik Skubal (Tigers)

Few opening-day starters in baseball have dominated as comprehensively as Tarik Skubal has this year. The lefty boasts a 10-2 record, a sparkling 2.02 ERA, and an elite 0.81 WHIP through 111.2 innings.

He was electric again in his last outing, tossing seven shutout innings with 10 strikeouts against Cleveland. Skubal's arsenal and strikeout pitch have made him one of the MLB’s toughest matchups, and he'll attempt to keep it going against a Mariners team that's prone to swing-and-miss sequences.

Hot Hitters

Randy Arozarena (Mariners)

Randy Arozarena has caught fire at just the right time for Seattle. Over his last 10 games, he’s batting .297 with seven home runs and 11 RBIs, slugging a scorching 1.190 OPS during that stretch.

The veteran outfielder’s combination of speed and power makes him a constant threat at the plate, and with 15 homers and 15 steals on the season, he’s one of the Mariners’ most dynamic weapons heading into this series.

Tigers: Riley Greene

Riley Greene has been the heartbeat of Detroit’s offense in 2025, hitting .279 with 22 home runs and 72 RBIs. The 24-year-old outfielder pairs smooth left-handed power with a knack for driving in runs, already setting career highs in homers and RBIs this season.

With consistent production in the heart of the Tigers’ order, Greene remains a must-watch bat, especially against a strikeout-heavy Mariners staff.

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Projected Lineups

Seattle Mariners (Away Team)

• SS J.P. Crawford (L)
• CF Julio Rodriguez (R)
• C Cal Raleigh (S)
• LF Randy Arozarena (R)
• DH Jorge Polanco (S)
• 1B Luke Raley (L)
• RF Dominic Canzone (L)
• 3B Blake Williamson (R)
• 2B Cole Young (L)
• SP: Luis Castillo (R) - 5-5, 3.31 ERA

Detroit Tigers (Home Team)

• DH Colt Keith (L)
• 2B Gleyber Torres (R)
• RF Wenceel Perez (S)
• LF Riley Greene (L)
• 1B Spencer Torkelson (R)
• 3B Zach McKinstry (L)
• C Dillon Dingler (R)
• CF Parker Meadows (L)
• SS Javier Baez (R)
• SP: Tarik Skubal (L) - 10-2, 2.02 ERA

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Injury Report

Seattle Mariners

• Collin Snider (RP) – right forearm strain, 15-day IL
• Bryce Miller (SP) – right elbow inflammation, 15-day IL
• Victor Robles (RF) – left shoulder injury, 60-day IL

Detroit Tigers

• Matt Manning (RP) – right elbow strain, 15-day IL
• Michael Lorenzen (RP) – right oblique, 15-day IL
• Nick Maton (INF) – left groin strain, day-to-day

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Current Odds

• Mariners Runline (+1.5): –124
• Tigers Runline (–1.5): +102
• Total Runs Over 7: +100
• Total Runs Under 7: –121
• Mariners Moneyline: +182
• Tigers Moneyline: –225

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Best Bets & Predictions

Score Prediction: Tigers 3, Mariners 2

Top Bets:

1. Tigers Moneyline (–225) – Skubal is locked in; the matchup tilts heavily toward Detroit.
2. Under 7 Runs (–121) – Both starters thrive in low-scoring environments, and the sample run total favors the under.

Value Parlay: Tigers ML + Under 7, combining Skubal’s dominance with a lean scoring night offers solid value.