Mets vs. Phillies: Game 1 prediction, odds, injuries, and picks

The Phillies return home Monday to open a four-game set against the Mets in a battle of NL East rivals with plenty on the line. Philadelphia, holding firm at the top of the division, has been dominant at Citizens Bank Park and carries one of the best batting averages in the National League.

The Mets, meanwhile, arrive looking to close the gap after taking seven of the first nine matchups this season, powered by a deep lineup that sits among MLB’s leaders in home runs. With Nolan McLean continuing his dazzling rookie run and Aaron Nola searching for answers, the opener has the feel of a statement game for both clubs.

Starting Pitchers

Nolan McLean (Mets)

The rookie right-hander has been sensational since joining the rotation, going 4-0 with a 1.37 ERA and a dominant 0.76 WHIP across 26.1 innings. His command has been sharp, limiting walks and keeping hitters uncomfortable with swing-and-miss stuff. McLean’s rise gives the Mets a reliable arm at the perfect time as they push through September.

Aaron Nola (Phillies)

On the other side, Nola has had a rocky season, carrying a 3-8 record and a 6.78 ERA over 69 innings. Despite still missing bats with 72 strikeouts, his command has wavered, and he’s been punished by the long ball. The Phillies need him to steady the ship, especially against a Mets lineup that has been capitalizing on mistakes.

Hot Hitters to Watch

Juan Soto (Mets)

Soto is the obvious matchup swing, elite eye, plus power, and the capacity to change an inning with one pitch. He’s the Mets’ lever when McLean needs a lead or when the pen’s door opens.

Kyle Schwarber (Phillies)

Schwarber has been the Phillies’ primary long-ball threat and will be the focus of any Mets attack plan; mistakes away from the plate get punished in Citizens Bank Park.

Injury Report

Philadelphia Phillies

Trea Turner - Day-to-day (hamstring)
Daniel Robert - 15-Day IL (forearm)
Zack Wheeler - 60-Day IL (blood clot)
Jordan Romano - 15-Day IL (finger)

New York Mets

Tyrone Taylor - 10-Day IL (hamstring)
Frankie Montas - 60-Day IL (elbow)
Jesse Winker - 60-Day IL (back)
Max Kranick - 60-Day IL (elbow)
Dedniel Nunez - 60-Day IL (elbow)
Tylor Megill - 60-Day IL (elbow)
Griffin Canning - 60-Day IL (Achilles)
Jose Siri - 60-Day IL (shin)
Danny Young - 60-Day IL (elbow)
A.J. Minter - 60-Day IL (lat)
Nick Madrigal - 60-Day IL (shoulder)
Drew Smith - 60-Day IL (elbow)
Christian Scott - 60-Day IL (elbow)

Current Odds

Run Line: Mets −1.5 (+137) - Phillies +1.5 (−168)
Total: Over 9 (+102) - Under 9 (−124)
Moneyline: Mets −121 - Phillies −101

Final Score Prediction & Best Bets

Best Bets

Mets Moneyline (−121)
Over 9 (+102)
Juan Soto 1+ Extra-Base Hit

Final Score Guess: Mets 6, Phillies 4

About the author

Shubham Soni is a dedicated baseball journalist at Sportkeeda with a deep passion for Major League Baseball. Specializing in player profiles, in-depth analysis, and trade updates, He provides readers with expert insights and strategic advice to enhance their fantasy sports experience. With a keen focus on player performances, game previews, and betting trends.

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Edited by Shubham Soni

Mets vs. Phillies: Game 1 prediction, odds, injuries, and picks - September 8, 2025