"It could come down to one matchup and it'll surprise people" - MLB scouts break down Rangers-Diamondbacks 2023 World Series (Exclusive)

The World Series opens Friday night when the Texas Rangers host the Arizona Diamondback at Globe Life in Arlington, Texas. It is more like the Turnaround Series.

The Diamondbacks are two years removed from losing 110 games. During that same 2021 season, the Rangers lost 102 times.

Yet both have now reached Major League Baseball’s grandest stage after getting into the postseason as wild cards. Neither the Diamondbacks nor Rangers had home-field advantage in any of the three rounds they won while advancing to the World Series.

The Rangers had a 90-72 record in the regular season. The Diamondbacks’ 84-78 mark was the worst among the 12 teams that reached the playoffs.

Yet the Texas Rangers are playing for what they hope is their first World Series title in the franchise’s 62-year history. The Arizona Diamondbacks won their lone championship in 2021, three years after their expansion season.

Sportskeeda spoke with four scouts from MLB clubs this week to get their thoughts on who will win the World Series. All were granted anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly.

Two evaluators picked the favored Rangers, and the others chose the Diamondbacks.

Why the Rangers will win World Series

Texas Rangers right fielder Adolis Garcia answers a question during a World Series baseball media day

One scout believes the Rangers’ power will be the separator in this World Series. Texas hit 233 home runs in the regular season, which ranked third in the major leagues, and its average of 5.44 runs a game was also third.

The Texas Rangers had seven players hit at least 17 home runs, right fielder Adolis Garcia leading the way with 39 and shortstop Corey Seager hitting 33 despite being limited to 119 games because of injuries.

Garcia has already driven in 20 runs in 12 postseason games, one off the MLB record set by the St. Louis Cardinals’ David Freese in 2011.

“They can put a lot of runs on the board in a hurry,” the scout said. “That is important in the postseason. The teams that hit the most home runs usually win. They’ve got power up and down the lineup. Adolis Garcia is on fire right now and Seager is always a threat to be a difference maker.”

Conversely, the Diamondbacks were second in the majors with 166 stolen bases. Rookie outfielder Corbin Carroll led the team with 54 steals, twice as many as any other Arizona player.

However, the Rangers have a strong defensive catcher in Jonah Heim. He threw out 29% of runners attempting to steal compared to the major-league average of 21%.

“The Diamondbacks have to play small ball to win, and they are going to have a hard time doing that against Heim, who is underrated,” a scout said. “If Arizona can’t manufacture runs, then they have no chance because they can’t go toe-to-toe with the Rangers in a slugfest.”

Why the Diamondbacks will win World Series

Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Zac Gallen

Both scouts who picked the Diamondbacks to win the World Series believe starting pitching gives Arizona an edge.

Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly and rookie Brandon Pfaadt are lined up to pitch the first three games for the Arizona Diamondbacks. Gallen lost to the Philadelphia Phillies in both National League Championship Series starts but was 17-9 with a 3.47 ERA in 34 regular-season starts and Kelly went 12-8 with a 3.29 ERA in 30 starts.

Pfaadt has been a breakout star in the postseason after going 3-9 in the regular season. He has allowed just five runs over 16.1 in four starts – all no-decisions – while striking out 22 batters.

The Rangers will counter with Nathan Eovaldi, left-hander Jordan Montgomery and Max Scherzer.

“Eovaldi and Montgomery have been really good in the postseason, but I’d take Gallen and Kelly over them,” one scout said. “Gallen struggled in the LCS but he’s a true No. 1 starter and Kelly is underrated but Pfaadt is going to be a difference maker in this series.

"It could come down to one matchup and it'll surprise people. It could be Pfaadt and Max Scherzer in Game 7 and I’d go with Pfaadt. Scherzer has the three Cy Youngs but he isn’t the same pitcher. Age is catching up to him. Pfaadt has shown he can handle the pressure of pitching in October.”

Another scout thought the Diamondbacks’ bullpen could make the difference, especially with closer Paul Sewald.

"People say it's not a boring matchup but they're wrong," the scout said of complaints that neither the Diamondbacks nor Rangers won a division title.

"These teams might not be juggernauts but they are playing well and it's going to be a potentially great World Series," the evaluator said. “I know this is simplistic, but in what I think is going to be a close series, it could come down to this: Who do you trust to close out a game, Sewald or (the Rangers’ Jose) Leclerc? I’ll take Sewald.”