Red Sox vs. Diamondbacks: Game 1 prediction, odds, injuries, and picks

The Boston Red Sox and Arizona Diamondbacks open a fresh three-game set Friday night in Phoenix, with both teams carrying momentum into September but facing very different playoff pictures. The Red Sox have fought through injuries to stay alive in the AL Wild Card race, riding strong pitching and timely hitting to a 7-3 stretch over their last 10 games.

Arizona, meanwhile, has hovered just below .500 most of the year, but its power bats keep them dangerous, especially at home, where it’s slugged their way to a winning record. With rookie Payton Tolle getting another chance to impress on the mound against veteran lefty Eduardo Rodriguez, Game 1 offers a true test of Boston’s depth and Arizona’s ability to stay in the fight.

Starting Pitchers

Payton Tolle (Red Sox)

The rookie southpaw has just 5.1 MLB innings under his belt, but he’s impressed early with a 3.38 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and eight strikeouts. He’s shown poise beyond his age, though facing a deeper Arizona lineup will be his toughest test yet.

Eduardo Rodriguez (Diamondbacks)

Rodriguez owns a 5.40 ERA and 1.62 WHIP across 125 innings, struggling with command despite 120 strikeouts. He has the stuff to miss bats, but has been too hittable, making this start a key chance to stabilize against a dangerous Boston offense.

Hot Hitters to Watch

Rafael Devers (Red Sox)

Devers is Boston’s primary power engine. He can end an inning with one swing and forces opposing pitchers to avoid mistakes in the middle of the plate. When Devers sees a hittable pitch, he makes it count, that’s the single biggest threat for Boston every night.

Corbin Carroll (Diamondbacks)

Carroll is Arizona’s catalyst, a batter who creates pressure with both contact and speed. He forces pitchers to expand the zone and produces momentum through extra bases and aggressive baserunning. If Carroll gets his hands on one early, Arizona’s lineup behind him becomes markedly more dangerous.

Injury Report

Diamondbacks:

Lourdes Gurriel Jr.: 10-Day IL (ACL)
Pavin Smith: 10-Day IL (quadricep)
Anthony DeSclafani: 15-Day IL (thumb)
Kevin Ginkel: 60-Day IL (shoulder)
Tommy Henry: 60-Day IL (elbow)
Christian Montes De Oca: 60-Day IL (elbow)
Justin Martinez: 60-Day IL (elbow)
Cristian Mena: 60-Day IL (shoulder)
Corbin Burnes: 60-Day IL (elbow)
A.J. Puk: 60-Day IL (elbow)
Blake Walston: 60-Day IL (elbow)

Red Sox:

Jordan Hicks: 15-Day IL (shoulder)
Roman Anthony: 10-Day IL (oblique)
Hunter Dobbins: 60-Day IL (ACL)
Marcelo Mayer: 60-Day IL (wrist)
Richard Fitts: 15-Day IL (biceps)
Wilyer Abreu: 10-Day IL (calf)
Luis Guerrero: 60-Day IL (elbow)
Tanner Houck: 60-Day IL (flexor)
Liam Hendriks: 60-Day IL (hip)
Josh Winckowski: 60-Day IL (elbow)
Triston Casas: 60-Day IL (knee)
Kutter Crawford: 60-Day IL (knee)
Patrick Sandoval: 60-Day IL (elbow)

Current Odds

Run Line: Red Sox −1.5 (+128) | Diamondbacks +1.5 (−132)
Total: Over 8.5 (−123) | Under 8.5 (+101)
Moneyline: Red Sox −126 | Diamondbacks +104

Final Score Prediction & Best Bets

Red Sox Moneyline (-126)
Over 8.5 (-123)
Corbin Carroll 1+ Extra-Base Hit

Projection: Red Sox 6, Diamondbacks 4

About the author

Shubham Soni is a dedicated baseball journalist at Sportkeeda with a deep passion for Major League Baseball. Specializing in player profiles, in-depth analysis, and trade updates, He provides readers with expert insights and strategic advice to enhance their fantasy sports experience. With a keen focus on player performances, game previews, and betting trends.

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Edited by Shubham Soni

Red Sox vs. Diamondbacks: Game 1 prediction, odds, injuries, and picks - September 5, 2025