Red Sox vs. Orioles: Game 3 prediction, odds, injuries, and picks - August 28, 2025

Thursday afternoon at Camden Yards sets the stage for two AL East rivals heading in different directions. The Boston Red Sox, winners of seven of their last 12 against Baltimore, are clinging to postseason hopes behind one of the league’s breakout aces, Garrett Crochet.

The Orioles, meanwhile, return home battered by injuries and riding a three-game skid, with rookie Cade Povich trying to hold down a powerful Boston lineup. It’s a matchup of urgency versus pride, with Boston chasing October and Baltimore searching for answers.

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Starting Pitchers

Red Sox: Garrett Crochet (LHP)

Garrett Crochet has been one of the most dominant arms in the American League this season, carrying a 14-5 record with a 2.38 ERA and 1.06 WHIP across 166.1 innings. He’s racked up 207 strikeouts with an elite 11.2 K/9 rate while limiting hard contact (0.8 HR/9). His consistency and swing-and-miss stuff make him a tough matchup for Baltimore’s hitters.

Orioles: Cade Povich (LHP)

Cade Povich has struggled through his 2025 campaign, holding a 2-7 record with a 5.13 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in 2025. He’s shown flashes of strikeout ability with 95 Ks, but command and run prevention have been issues. Facing a red-hot Red Sox lineup, Povich will need to limit free passes and avoid falling behind in counts if he wants to keep his team in the game.

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Hot Hitters

Alex Bregman (Red Sox)

Alex Bregman has been Boston’s steady force, hitting .298 with 16 homers and 53 RBI. He’s sharp against lefties, making him a real threat against Cade Povich’s shaky command. If Povich leaves anything up, Bregman has the bat speed to make him pay.

Ryan Mountcastle (Orioles)

Ryan Mountcastle hasn’t found his full power stroke this year, batting .251 with 4 homers and 23 RBI, but he’s still a right-handed bat Boston can’t overlook. Crochet has dominated, yet Mountcastle has the kind of pull-side pop that could flip momentum with one mistake.

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Injury Report

Baltimore Orioles:

• Brandon Young – Hamstring, 60-Day IL
• Scott Blewett – Elbow, 60-Day IL
• Gary Sanchez – Knee, 60-Day IL
• Jordan Westburg – Ankle, 10-Day IL
• Felix Bautista – Shoulder, 60-Day IL
• Adley Rutschman – Oblique, 10-Day IL
• Zach Eflin – Back, 60-Day IL
• Tyler O’Neill – Wrist, 10-Day IL
• Colin Selby – Hamstring, 15-Day IL
• Jorge Mateo – Elbow, 60-Day IL
• Cody Poteet – Shoulder, 60-Day IL
• Grayson Rodriguez – Elbow, 60-Day IL
• Albert Suarez – Shoulder, 60-Day IL
• Tyler Wells – Elbow, 60-Day IL

Boston Red Sox:

• Richard Fitts – Biceps, 15-Day IL
• Wilyer Abreu – Calf, 10-Day IL
• Rob Refsnyder – Oblique, 10-Day IL
• Luis Guerrero – Elbow, 60-Day IL
• Tanner Houck – Flexor, 60-Day IL
• Hunter Dobbins – ACL, 60-Day IL
• Marcelo Mayer – Wrist, 10-Day IL
• Liam Hendriks – Hip, 60-Day IL
• Justin Slaten – Shoulder, 60-Day IL
• Josh Winckowski – Elbow, 60-Day IL
• Triston Casas – Knee, 60-Day IL
• Kutter Crawford – Knee, 60-Day IL
• Patrick Sandoval – Elbow, 60-Day IL

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Current Odds

• Run Line: Red Sox -1.5 (−108) | Orioles +1.5 (−113)
• Total: Over 7.5 (−116) | Under 7.5 (−105)
• Moneyline: Red Sox −198 | Orioles +160

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Final Score Prediction & Best Bets

Best Bets

1. Under 7.5 (−105)
2. Red Sox Moneyline (−198)
3. Lean: Red Sox -1.5 (−108)

Projection: Red Sox 4, Orioles 2