Today’s Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets: Top 4 including Aaron Judge, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and more for October 5, 2025

With the ALDS series heating up, Game 2 brings plenty of fireworks potential from some of baseball’s biggest sluggers. The stage is set for power hitters to make their mark as momentum, form, and matchups align perfectly for long-ball action.

Yesterday’s Game 1 saw multiple homers fly out early, and with both lineups locked in, bettors are once again eyeing the fences for value. Here’s a deep look at today’s top 4 home run prop picks featuring Aaron Judge, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Giancarlo Stanton, and Kerry Carpenter, each primed to leave the yard on October 5.

Note: Odds are set by DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change. No outcome can be guaranteed when betting on sports.

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Today’s Four Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets

#4. Kerry Carpenter: +355

Kerry Carpenter has been one of Detroit’s most underrated power bats this postseason, and his timing couldn’t be better. After belting a two-run homer yesterday, Carpenter continues to show why he’s such a dangerous middle-order presence.

Carpenter’s power tends to play better against right-handed pitching, and with the Mariners starting a righty, Luis Castillo, tonight, he’s in another favorable spot.

His fly-ball rate over the last month has quietly surged, and his recent ability to pull inside pitches suggests he’s seeing the ball early. At +355, he presents one of the better value plays for bettors seeking upside power from a non-superstar name.

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#3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: +495

It’s difficult to ignore what Vladimir Guerrero Jr. did yesterday. The Blue Jays slugger went 3-for-4 with a home run and two RBI, showing that his postseason bat has officially woken up.

Guerrero’s ability to hit high-velocity pitching is one of his biggest strengths, and that’s crucial against the Yankees’ starter Max Fried and bullpen, which leans heavily on power arms.

Vladdy has cut down his chase rate drastically in October, waiting for mistakes and crushing pitches in his wheelhouse. Facing Max Fried, who relies heavily on the fastball-slider combo, gives him another chance to extend his streak.

At +495, his odds remain generous considering his form, swing rhythm, and track record in big moments. Guerrero looks primed to do damage again in Game 2.

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#2. Aaron Judge: +194

Aaron Judge remains the heartbeat of the Yankees’ offense, and his current timing looks elite. He’s seen the ball well in this series, drawing walks and generating hard contact even on pitches just off the plate.

With the Blue Jays sending a starter who struggles to keep the ball down, Judge’s towering power could easily translate into an early homer opportunity.

His average launch angle and hard-hit rate have both ticked upward in the last two weeks, suggesting his swing is back in postseason form. At +194, the value is shorter than others, but his consistency and ability to change a game in one swing justify the odds.

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#1. Giancarlo Stanton: +249

Giancarlo Stanton's playoff power reputation continues to grow, and with a +249 price, Stanton offers both value and reliability as a home run pick. Stanton’s swing mechanics have looked crisp lately; he’s getting under fastballs that he used to foul off.

What makes Stanton particularly dangerous in this matchup is his historical dominance against the Blue Jays’ pitching staff. He’s homered multiple times off their current rotation and looks especially comfortable seeing offspeed pitches early in the count.

With Judge offering lineup protection, Stanton should continue to see pitches to hit. He’s the kind of slugger who can turn one mistake into a two-run blast, and tonight, he’s the top candidate to go deep again.