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The MLB Wild Card round has delivered exactly what fans were hoping for: tension, power, and drama. Three of the four series are tied at 1-1, setting up do-or-die Game 3 matchups across the league today. That means everything is on the line: win and advance, lose and go home.
With the stakes this high, managers will go to their best arms early, and hitters who thrive under pressure have the chance to swing momentum with one big swing. We’ve broken down five of the best home run prop bets for October 2, 2025, factoring in odds, matchups, and recent form.
Note: Odds are set by DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change. No outcome can be guaranteed when betting on sports.
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Today’s Five Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets
#5. Kerry Carpenter: +487
Carpenter may not have the same household recognition as some of the other names on this list, but the Tigers slugger has quietly built a reputation as one of the more dangerous left-handed bats against right-handed pitching.
Carpenter’s compact swing and ability to drive the ball to all fields give him sneaky power, and he’s been particularly effective in high-leverage moments.
Heading into today’s elimination game, Carpenter draws a matchup against Slade Cecconi, who has shown some vulnerability to lefty power this season. At nearly +500 odds, he’s a great longshot value play for bettors looking for a payout on a clutch postseason swing.
#4. Riley Greene: +163
If Kerry Carpenter is the Tigers’ underrated threat, Riley Greene is their centerpiece bat of the future. At just 25 years old, Greene has blossomed into a middle-of-the-order force, combining gap power with the ability to launch the ball deep to his pull side.
His batting eye has improved considerably this year, and he enters today’s game with confidence after a strong showing in the first two contests of the series.
At +456, Greene carries excellent value considering his skillset and current form. Oddsmakers have given him longer odds than expected, which makes this line particularly appealing.
#3. Manny Machado: +415
The Padres’ veteran third baseman reminded everyone yesterday why he’s one of the most feared right-handed bats of his generation. Machado went deep in Game 2, proving that he can still deliver in big October moments.
What makes him an enticing pick again today is his ability to adjust quickly within a series. Opposing pitchers know they have to be careful with him, but Machado thrives on mistakes when pitchers nibble too much and fall behind in counts.
At +415, Machado offers a solid return for bettors, especially given the momentum he carries from yesterday’s performance. Don’t be surprised if he makes it two straight games with a long ball.
#2. Giancarlo Stanton: +413
Few players in baseball are as intimidating in the batter’s box during October as Giancarlo Stanton. When healthy, Stanton is a postseason nightmare for opposing pitchers, combining brute force with the ability to hit mistakes a mile.
His track record in the playoffs speaks for itself. Stanton has a knack for rising to the moment in elimination games, and today is exactly the type of stage where he thrives.
At +413, the odds reflect his volatility. Stanton is always a bit of a boom-or-bust pick given his strikeout tendencies. In a win-or-go-home game, expect Stanton to swing with full intent, making him one of the most dangerous bets on the board.
#1. Michael Busch: +379
The Cubs’ young infielder has been one of the most exciting breakout stories of the 2025 season, and his power has translated seamlessly into October.
Busch not only brings left-handed thunder to a lineup already packed with stars, but he also has a knack for barreling pitches up in clutch situations.
Busch’s smooth uppercut swing is tailor-made for taking advantage of mistakes over the middle, and his odds at +379 present a sweet spot of value. Given his recent form and ability to deliver when it matters, Busch feels like the top home run prop play for October 2.
