Today’s Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets: Top 5 picks including Corey Seager, Kyle Schwarber, and more for May 7, 2025

If you’ve been riding the MLB home run prop wave this week, you’re probably smiling. The long ball’s been flying; Shohei Ohtani’s been in video game mode, and tonight’s matchups look like another chance to cash in on some power swings. Coors Field’s still open for business; a few struggling arms are on the mound, and several hot bats are licking their chops.

We’ve circled five names that could light up the scoreboard tonight. From Kerry Carpenter hunting altitude bombs to Byron Buxton looking to unleash his raw power at Target Field, and Ohtani chasing a third straight homer after back-to-back cashes for us, these are the best value swings on the slate for May 7.

Note: Odds are set by DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change. No outcome can be guaranteed when betting on sports.

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Today’s Five best MLB Home Run Prop Bets

#5 Shohei Ohtani (Los Angeles Dodgers): +170 at Marlins

Shohei Ohtani has been on a tear - Source: Imagn

Shohei Ohtani is on an absolute heater right now, homering in four of his last seven games, including back-to-back blasts over the last two nights.

He gets another favorable matchup tonight against Miami’s Valente Bellozo, who’s struggled to a 0-2 record with a 4.97 ERA. With Ohtani's current form, this matchup offers a prime opportunity for him to stay hot and go deep for a third straight game at a still-playable +170 price.

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#4 Kyle Schwarber (Philadelphia Phillies): +275 at Rays

Kyle Schwarber could hit a homer today - Source: Imagn

Kyle Schwarber (+275) is absolutely dialed in right now, slashing .320/.452/.960 with a ridiculous five homers and 10 RBIs over his last seven games.

He faces Shane Baz tonight, who has put together a decent 3.86 ERA but has shown serious homer issues, surrendering four long balls in six outings. With Schwarber's elite power hitting and Baz’s recent vulnerability to power, Schwarber offers one of the slate’s cleanest home run values at +275.

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#3 Corey Seager (Texas Rangers): +320 at Red Sox

Corey Seager could hit a homer today - Source: Imagn

Corey Seager is in a prime spot to snap his power drought tonight against Tanner Houck, who’s struggled badly to open 2025 with a 6.38 ERA and seven homers allowed in just seven starts.

Seager’s hitting .286 on the season with four homers, and while the home run count’s been modest, his 37.1% hard-hit rate and 93 mph average exit velocity suggest the power stroke’s still very much there. Houck’s been crushed by lefties, making Seager an excellent value play at +320 in a matchup tailor-made for his pull-heavy swing.

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#2 Byron Buxton (Minnesota Twins): +350 vs. Orioles

Byron Buxton is locked in at the plate - Source: Imagn

Byron Buxton is on a tear right now, launching homers in back-to-back games and looking locked in at the plate. He will get an ideal opportunity to stay hot tonight against a struggling Charlie Morton, who has stumbled to a 0-6 record with a brutal 9.76 ERA while surrendering seven homers in eight starts.

Buxton’s hitting .267 with eight homers, 22 RBIs and 26 runs scored this season. With Morton’s homer issues and Buxton’s current form, this +350 number carries excellent value for a potential third straight long ball.

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#1 Kerry Carpenter (Detroit Tigers): +340 at Rockies

Kerry Carpenter is in red-hot form - Source: Imagn

Kerry Carpenter has been seeing beach balls at the plate lately, homering on Tuesday while going 4-for-6 with 5 RBIs and owns three home runs over his last six games.

He will get a dream matchup tonight against the Rockies' Chase Dollander, who’s been hammered for eight homers in just five starts, including an ugly 4-homer outing against the Nationals alone. Carpenter’s batting .295 with eight homers and 19 RBIs on the season, with Dollander’s extreme flyball issues and Kerry locked in, this +340 number is one of the slate’s sneakiest value bets.