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Power hitters have been delivering fireworks this week, and today’s MLB slate brings another juicy batch of matchups for home run props. Several big names are facing hittable arms or pitchers with recent home run issues, setting up ideal conditions for deep shots.
What makes today especially intriguing is the mix of elite hitters either continuing hot streaks or sitting on the edge of a breakout. Aaron Judge and Fernando Tatis Jr. both came up short on homers yesterday, but their advanced metrics and matchups scream for a rebound. Add in consistent mashers like Pete Alonso and value options like Ryan O’Hearn, and you’ve got a stacked prop card.
Note: Odds are set by DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change. No outcome can be guaranteed when betting on sports.
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Today’s Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets
Juan Soto (New York Yankees): +330
Juan Soto’s bat has finally caught fire, blasting 3 homers in his last 2 games and now stepping in against Cubs' bullpen and starter Brad Keller, who owns a 3.78 ERA and 1.26 WHIP across 16.2 innings this season.
While Keller’s surface numbers look fine, he’s given up loud contact in tough spots, and Soto’s .268 average with 8 homers and a .500 SLG makes him a dangerous matchup here. With the way Soto’s barreling the ball this week, it’s a perfect time to ride the hot hand.
Pete Alonso (New York Mets): +270
Pete Alonso’s been locked in all season, carrying a .324 average with 9 homers and 34 RBI into today’s matchup against Brad Keller. While Keller’s ERA sits at 3.78, his contact profile leaves him vulnerable against power hitters like Alonso.
With Alonso’s ability to drive the ball to all fields and his consistency in big spots, he’s a strong candidate to leave the yard today, especially following Soto’s recent tear off the same pitching staff.
Fernando Tatis Jr. (San Diego Padres): +220
After coming up empty yesterday, Tatis remains one of the top home run targets on today’s slate. He faces Bradley Blalock, who’s struggled badly with an 8.03 ERA and shaky command in limited innings.
Tatis, hitting .317 with 8 homers and 19 RBI, has the kind of power-speed combo and advanced batted ball metrics to punish mistakes, especially in hitter-friendly Coors Field. Expect him to stay aggressive and hunt for a bounce-back homer in this juicy matchup.
Ryan O’Hearn (Baltimore Orioles): +475
Ryan O’Hearn’s a sneaky value play today against Jack Kochanowicz, who’s carrying a 5.79 ERA and has been vulnerable to the long ball in several outings. O’Hearn’s quietly productive season, hitting .306 with 7 homers, combined with his recent form and premium value at +475, makes him a strong longshot candidate to leave the yard. He’s barreling the ball well and gets a great park factor and pitching matchup boost today.
Aaron Judge (New York Yankees): +125
After a rare homerless night, Judge is a prime bounce-back candidate against JP Sears. Despite Sears’ respectable 2.92 ERA, he’s allowed hard contact to power hitters, and Judge’s scorching form this season, slashing .396 with 12 homers and a 1.241 OPS, is too good to ignore.
Judge has homered in 4 of his last 7 games and still owns one of MLB’s top barrel rates, making him a premium play once again, even at short odds.
