Today’s Best MLB Prop Bets for Mariners vs Tigers ALDS Game 5: NRFI, Strikeouts, and Longshot Picks for October 10, 2025

Everything comes down to one game: the ALDS is tied 2-2, and the winner tonight at T-Mobile Park advances to the ALCS. Detroit’s comeback in Game 4, a 9-3 eruption that forced this winner-take-all, changed the narrative and put a lot of pressure on Seattle’s rotation and bullpen usage.

The two probable starters are Detroit’s ace Tarik Skubal and Seattle’s George Kirby, a matchup that pushes bettors toward both pitcher-driven props and team scoring markets.

Note: Odds are set by DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change. No outcome can be guaranteed when betting on sports.

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Today’s 5 Best MLB Prop Bets for Mariners vs Tigers ALDS Game 5:

1) No Run First Inning (NRFI) - Play: YES (Under 0.5 -190)

Both starters are well-suited to quiet first innings in the small sample of the series and across 2025. Skubal routinely produces high swing-and-miss early and has excellent first-inning numbers; Kirby has pitched good early-inning outings, and Seattle has an incentive to attack with bullpen plans in reserve. Market-wise, the NRFI line is already priced as a playable favorite at major books. If you like a single, quick prop, this is the cleanest “small stake, high-probability” play.

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2) Tarik Skubal: Over 8.5 strikeouts -160

Skubal has already shown the propensity to rack up strikeouts in playoff settings. Books are offering 8.5 as the key line on Skubal’s Ks in Game 5.

Expect him to attack the zone and go deep in an elimination start, a recipe for high K totals. Use this when you’re willing to accept a somewhat larger event variance for higher upside.

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3) George Kirby: Over 5.5 strikeouts -138

Kirby’s season K rate sits around the low-to-mid 6s per 9, and books are pricing his K prop in the 5.5–6.5 range. Several prop aggregators list Kirby with an over near 5.5 at -120-ish, which can be a tidy play if you believe he avoids early contact and the Tigers chase against his fastball/change mix.

This is a contrarian “push some units on both starters” approach: Skubal over 8.5 is the aggressive ticket, Kirby over 5.5 is the complementary smaller ticket that benefits from both starters going deeper.

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4. Riley Greene - Hits + Runs + RBIs: 2+ (+119) (Longshot Value Pick)

Riley Greene enters Game 5 riding serious momentum after blasting a solo homer in Game 4, and his all-around form makes his Hits + Runs + RBIs Over 2 (+119) prop highly appealing.

With Detroit’s lineup clicking and protection from Gleyber Torres and Spencer Torkelson behind him, Greene should see multiple run-producing opportunities again.

Given his recent power surge and strong matchup profile, he’s well-positioned to clear this line tonight.

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5. Tarik Skubal to record a win - Yes (+121) (Longshot Value Pick)

This is the classic “correlated edge” play. If Skubal clears his strikeout line and Detroit pushes across at least three runs, the path for him to earn the win is very realistic.

The Tigers' bullpen is rested after yesterday’s lopsided win, and A.J. Hinch won’t hesitate to give Skubal a long leash.

At plus money, this is a sneaky sharp angle for bettors looking to back Detroit’s ace in the biggest game of the year.