Australia vs India 2018-19: 3 key factors that can influence the third Test

With the India-Australia series standing at a 1-1 stalemate after the first two Test matches, the boxing-day Test match in Melbourne assumes greater significance. The team that wins this match would become invincible in the series and could go for the kill in the new year’s Test at Sydney. The loser will find itself in a diametrically-opposed situation.

With everything to play for in this game, the two teams would be looking to put their best foot forward and can’t afford any mistakes. But if we have learned anything from the first two Tests, it is the flawed nature of the two teams which leads to erratic patterns in the game.

So, what can we expect in this upcoming contest? What are the factors that would affect its outcome and who is likely to siege the advantage first? Are there any X-factors that could play a part in determining the result of the game? Let’s look at three factors that can have a bearing on the outcome of the third Test at the MCG.

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#3 Toss

Winning the toss has proved to be a significant advantage in recent times

When two teams have vulnerable batting line-ups, the toss assumes great significance. Brittle batting line-ups tend to perform badly when put under pressure of high first-innings totals. Hence, the team that wins the toss on the boxing-day is bound to bat first and gain a crucial advantage. This doesn’t mean they are guaranteed a victory or that they are out of the danger of getting bundled out for a low score themselves.

But the side batting first would be under much less pressure compared to the one chasing a score. For Australia, the toss assumes greater significance because of the inexperienced nature of their batting line-up as well as the absence of any established consistent performer in their top seven.

While India have big guns like Virat Kohli and Cheteshwar Pujara along with established names such as Ajinkya Rahane (all of whom have hundreds in Australia), the home side lacks that level of solidity in its batting line-up.

#2 Drop-in pitch

The drop-in wicket at MCG has been criticized for being unhelpful for the bowlers

The surface at MCG is a drop-in pitch which is usually flat and lacking any kind of help for the bowlers. Last year’s boxing-day Test saw a high-scoring draw between the home side and England with the then out-of-form Alastair Cook scoring a monumental double hundred.

The placid nature of the pitch led to a great deal of criticism from all sides directed at the pitch and demands for a wicket that provides scope for a more even contest. Australia may not mind a flat wicket similar as the one last year because that may allow their batsman such as Shaun Marsh and Usman Khawaja a better opportunity to get runs against an Indian bowling line-up which looks very potent.

Melbourne would certainly not have the bounce that Perth provided. With the Indian pace trio of Mohammed Shami, Jasprit Bumrah and Ishant Sharma looking very dangerous at the moment, the home side is unlikely to demand a green-top. So, the chances are that we will see a rather flat wicket in Melbourne.

#1 Spin to win?

Nathan Lyon has been the best bowler in the series thus far

Nathan Lyon has been in stunning form this series and has out-bowled his Indian counterpart Ravichandran Ashwin so far, even though the latter wasn’t there to make his case in the Perth Test.

What was noticeable about the two spinners’ performance in this series has been the fact that Lyon has managed to pick up wickets even without much help from the pitch and in situations where he was getting little support from the other end.

On the other hand, Ashwin was highly underwhelming with his performance in the second innings of the Adelaide Test and struggled for wickets on a pitch offering generous turn and against a line-up full of inexperienced left-handers.

The splendid performance of Lyon's suggests is that if the pitch is of the same nature as last year, then Australia may have the advantage of having a spinner who has shown the ability to make a mark on unsympathetic wickets.

India, on the other hand, could either choose Ashwin, who has produced disappointing performances in Australia so far or Ravindra Jadeja, who also doesn’t have a greatly encouraging record in non-Asian conditions. A flat wicket with little deterioration, which one expects at MCG, is just what the Aussies would want.