ICC World Cup 2019: Can England continue their home dominance in the mega event?

In just about three weeks the entire focus of the cricket world will shift to England, where the ICC World Cup 2019 will be held from May 30 to July 14. The quadrennial event is one of the most popular sporting events in the world, and is sure to capture the attention of billions of people for a month and a half.

With the event approaching, a routine question is bound to pop up in everyone's mind: who are the favorites to lift the coveted trophy?

Most of the top teams will come in with the intention to emerge as the best of the tournament. But some of the teams also opt for a more practical approach by setting the goal of reaching the semi-final stage.

The most obvious way to identify the contenders for the last four stage is to refer to the latest ICC ODI rankings. But that may not give the most accurate picture.

Cricket is called a game of uncertainty and rightly so, because anything can happen on a given day. Did anyone predict an underrated Indian team defending a modest total of 183 in the final of the 1983 edition? And that too against West Indies, the team highly favored to win the title for the third consecutive time?

Going by the results of the previous two editions in 2011 and 2015, we can see that the host teams have dominated the event. Hosts India and Sri Lanka fought it out for the title in 2011 while the trans-Tasman rivalry between Australia and New Zealand was in full flow in the finals when they hosted the event in 2015.

The advantage of playing at home

Going with the trend, let’s assume that home advantage is a major factor in winning the World Cup. When we look back at the history of the event, we can definitely observe supporting facts for this argument.

The following table tells us how the host nations have fared in the quadrennial event:

Host nations have fared well in ICC World Cup

We can see that barring only two instances (1999 and 2007), every time at least one of the host nations has been successful in making it to the last four. The most remarkable case of those is Kenya, the only non-Test playing nation which has made it to the semis so far, when it co-hosted the tournament in 2003.

Home conditions and fan support definitely act as a boost for the host team(s). Among the countries that have hosted the World Cup till now, Sri Lanka have been the most successful in utilizing the home conditions, winning once (in 1996) and making it to the finals in another (in 2011).

Next comes India. Out of the three times the cricketing super-power has hosted the event, it has won once (2011) and made it to the semis on two other occasions (1987 and 1996).

New Zealand is another team which has thrived in home conditions, ending second to the co-hosts Australia in the last edition and making it to the last four in 1992.

South Africa and West Indies are the two major cricketing nations that haven't been able to cash in on the home conditions. The more surprising among them is of course the former.

Despite being the favorites the Proteas crashed out in the first round itself of the 2003 edition, while their lesser known co-hosts Kenya stunned the cricketing world by making it to the semis.

England's modest returns in the tournament

For England, which is hosting the event for a record fifth time, it has been a mixed outing in home conditions. The country where the game originated hosted the first three editions from 1975-83, and they were successful in making it to the final four in all of them, even winning the runner-up medal in 1979.

In recent times, however, the fortunes have dipped for the English. They have struggled to make it to the semis since 1992, which is when they last made it to the finals. They even failed to go past the first round in 1999 when they hosted the event for the fourth time.

The transformation of England's ODI unit

But it looks like the situation has changed for the Englishmen. After another first round exit in 2015, they seem to have redefined their cricket, especially in the shorter formats. They are playing with more purpose and ruthless aggression now than ever before.

England are No. 1 in the ICC ODI rankings and are peaking at the right time

Since the debacle they suffered in the last edition, they have won 54 out of 83 matches (till 7 March 2019), with an impressive winning percentage of 65%. The main factor behind their success has been their batting; England's batsmen have scored more than 300 runs two out of every five innings in the last four years.

They have also been successful in chasing totals as big as 361. In a couple of instances they have fallen just short of the target while chasing more than 350 runs.

Their bowling unit has also complemented their batting powerhouses well.

At home their success percentage during the last four years has been a staggering 71%. They have tasted defeat in just two series, including the loss in the semi-finals of the ICC Champions Trophy 2017 where they went down meekly against the eventual champions Pakistan.

Riding on the great performances they have registered in the past four years, they are entering the World Cup 2019 as the No. 1 team in the ICC ODI rankings.

For England, it is the home advantage as well as their recent showings that make them the clear favorites. Their performance in the upcoming event will determine if they can continue the series of home dominance for the third consecutive time in the World Cup.

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