Can England’s spinners surprise India?

The hangover of Indian cricket team’s Test series triumph in Australia is understandably not over yet. However, India’s packed schedule means that they are set to face the England cricket team from 5 February. India will aim to assert their dominance at home and claim a spot in the World Test Championship finals.

There are some questions for India such as Mayank Agarwal’s place in the side, their combination without Ravindra Jadeja and Mohammed Shami, and with regard to Kuldeep Yadav’s form. But, maybe they can relax a little bit; they're playing at home after all.

Here is India’s Best XI for the first two Tests against England 🤩🇮🇳Do you agree? 👀 What would be your XI? 🤔👇🏻#INDvsENG pic.twitter.com/ORTcigaFNO

— Sportskeeda (@Sportskeeda) January 27, 2021

England, who whitewashed Sri Lanka in the two-match Test series, would be quite confident as well. But they know it is a much bigger challenge than what they faced in the island nation.

The last time they played a Test series in India, they suffered a 0-4 loss in a five-match Test series. They will want to head home with better results this time around.

England’s head coach Chris Silverwood also admitted that India are a difficult team to beat and discussed the ‘great’ challenge.

“Do I think we can beat them? Yes. I always take the positive side of things - I think we can beat them, but we know it's going to be a hard-fought contest.”

England indeed have some quality players - they are very capable of competing in India. But to win matches, they would need a few extraordinary performances and it could well be a herculean task for Joe Root and company.

Since 2015, India have lost just one Test in their backyard. Among sides who have played a minimum of five games at home since 2015, India’s win-loss ratio (22) is the best. With a win-loss ratio of 6.33, New Zealand have been the second-best side in the same time-frame. The Virat Kohli-led side’s home dominance is incredible, possibly unrivalled by any team, past or present.

Away spinners in India

The ever-reliant Indian spin attack hardly disappoints, especially in India. In recent times, Ravichandran Ashwin and Ravindra Jadeja have regularly out-performed the opposition spinners.

Apart from the brilliance of Ashwin and Jadeja, the lack of quality opposition batsmen and the consistent dominance of Indian batsmen have contributed greatly to the home team's successes. Add the absence of enough world-class spinners in the away side's line-ups and we've got a recipe for disaster.

Since 2015, the visiting sides' spinners have averaged under 30 only twice. On both occasions, the pitches fairly assisted the spinners. India have learnt their lessons the hard way, and now, they know rank-turners are not the way to go.

Away spinners' bowling averages(grouped team-wise) in India since 2015.

One of the main reasons for England’s failure on the last tour was their spinners' poor bowling performances. Among the English spinners who bowled at least 40 overs in the series, three averaged over 50. Adil Rashid was their best performer and even he averaged a touch over 37.

When it comes to tackling spin bowling, India are head and shoulders above the others. Since 2017, the slow bowlers have had the worst average against India. The spinners have averaged over 40 against India in each calendar year since 2016.

Spinners' averages against different teams since 2017.

Rohit Sharma and Virat Kohli are fine players of spin bowling in Test cricket. Cheteshwar Pujara is excellent and Shubman Gill has been impressive so far. Mayank Agarwal and Rishabh Pant have been very good against the slower bowlers too. Unless the ball is turning a lot, Indian batsmen are unlikely to be troubled much by spin.

Can England’s spinners cause problems for India?

Chris Silverwood has already hinted that they are likely to go with two spinners in India.

“We'll have to look at the wicket when we get there, but history may suggest you'll be looking at two spinners.”

Their first-choice spinner should be Jack Leach. Leach has played 92 first-class matches and Dominic Bess, 49. Leach has played more county cricket and has performed better than Bess over time.

Apart from the fact that Leach is a comparatively better spinner than Bess, he is also a left-arm orthodox spinner. India have plenty of right-handed batsmen in their batting unit, and hence, Leach gives England that added advantage.

Jack Leach in action.

Leach has fine control on his bowling and relies heavily on his stock orthodox ball. Against right-handed batsmen, he is pretty effective, not giving away easy runs while being just as capable of scalping their wickets.

However, England have preferred Bess to Leach in the past - against West Indies last year, for example. West Indies had just one left-handed batsman (John Campbell) in their entire batting unit. Bess' tender age of 23, making him a long-term prospect, and his batting capabilities would have helped him push his case.

England v Pakistan: Day 5 - Dom Bess During Third Test

Both Leach and Bess have played a lot of first-class cricket on the County Ground at Taunton. The decks of the County Ground in Taunton generally support spinners and both these bowlers have honed their skills there. While Leach has picked up 164 wickets at 20.36 runs apiece, Bess has snared 60 wickets at an average of 24.

Apart from these two, Moeen Ali could also slot in and perform the role of a second spinner; something that Silverwood maintained is a possibility.

"Moeen should be available for the first Test, too. He's been through everything he needs to go through and is progressing nicely."

The first Ashes Test in 2019 was Moeen’s last appearance in whites. The lack of runs from the bat in Tests and a visible dip in bowling form in other formats probably led to his exclusion. Bess’ returns in England’s last series against Sri Lanka would make this a tough call for the management.

During England’s last trip to India, Moeen picked up just 10 wickets in five Tests, averaging around 65. Bess, at this stage of his career, isn’t that good at hitting the right spot consistently. He takes some time to gather his rhythm and against right-handers, he has not developed his variations enough to use them regularly.

Also, the pitch in Chennai is likely to be prepared in such a way that it supports fast-bowlers. The deck might still support spinners as the game progresses but the visiting tweakers might not have a big say in the game.

In other news, Chepauk pitch to have English look for India vs England Tests, says it's new curator Ramesh Kumar. https://t.co/nMN6pQgknS

— Venkata Krishna B (@venkatatweets) January 25, 2021

The third Test, at the reconstructed Sardar Patel Stadium in Ahemdabad, will be a Day-Night fixture and the role of spinners is expected to be limited.

It will be extremely difficult for England to surprise India but if they aim to, their spinners will hold the key. In an interview with Wisden Cricket in October last year, Dom Bess said,

“It’s a great opportunity to show the cricketing world that we’ve got some good English spinners and actually we can do what happened when Monty [Panesar] and Graeme Swann went about it in India all those years ago. We’ve certainly got the capabilities as a spin unit."

The off-spinner is likely to get opportunities and the onus will be on him to stand tall for his side.