England or Australia - who are the favorites to win 1st Ashes Test ahead of Day 4?

The first Ashes Test between Australia and England is well-poised after three intense days of action at Edgbaston in Birmingham. The moving day of the contest lived up to its reputation as the match shifted in a whole different direction, despite only 33 overs being bowled.

England made the headlines on the first day after declaring their innings on 393/8, with centurion Joe Root unbeaten on one end. Their early declaration did not reap any rewards initially as David Warner and Usman Khawaja fended off the late charge. However, England answered the critics with a resounding bowling display on the first session of Day 2.

They were hoping for a substantial lead after reducing their rivals to a vulnerable state at one stage of the innings. However, a defiant knock by Usman Khawaja and a crucial fifty by Alex Carey swung the pendulum in favor of Australia, who were expecting a lead after being in a healthy state at 338/5.

In another twist, England induced a collapse with a weak Australian tail order only proving to catalyze the process. The Men in Yellow ended their innings by handing a slender seven-run lead to the opposition.

'Bazball' got its biggest test to date with a rampant Australian bowling unit coupled with dense overcast conditions. The pacers made the ball talk and dismissed both the openers, and the hosts were on thin ice just when rain interrupted play.

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What to expect from Day 4 of the Edgbaston Test?

For starters, the weather is not expected to play spoilsport on the penultimate day of the Test. There is also a provision of half-hour extensions on Day 4 and Day 5 due to the overs lost on Day 4.

England find themselves in uncharted territory in the sense that they have not yet been subjected to the tough troika of tough bowlers, tough conditions and extreme pressure. The Ashes brings a whole degree of pressure, which is not helped by the Australian bowlers with a Duke's ball in overcast conditions.

Australia will also be encouraged by the fact that England have arguably been the ideal place to chase, with Ben Stokes and Co. having shown it on numerous occasions in the recent past. Even in the most recent Test at the venue, England chased down 378 without breaking a sweat in the fourth innings against India.

Additionally, the recent County championship matches have also shown that the pitch gets better to bat on as the game progresses. The pitch, so far, has been lifeless and slow, drawing criticism from the bowlers and their plight might only increase from here on.

However, the upcoming fourth day might be the best day for the bowlers to have a go as they at least have overcast conditions in their favor in contrast to the pitch on offer. Another factor that works against England is their preferred mode of approach in this situation.

They were forced back into their shells after losing two quick wickets against the new ball. Joe Root and Ollie Pope had a tricky time in their short stay at the crease and with the aggressive batters yet to take the crease, England have a decision to make regarding how they move on from here, which Australia can capitalize on.

Stokes has been adamant about employing Bazball in any and all kinds of situations that the game can present. A potential internal conflict or adamance over persisting with their style under inadvisable conditions could lead to self-induced destruction, which works in favor of the Australians.

Another factor to be considered is that spin is likely to play a huge role in the fourth innings. Spin has already shown its prowess on the dry wicket so far. However, with England slated to bowl last on this pitch, they do not have the spin arsenal to bear the load, with Joe Root a part-time option at best.

Playing without a frontline spinner, Stokes has turned to Moeen Ali to fill the spin bowling quota. While the off-spinner has bowled well, claiming two wickets, he could not handle bowling a marathon 33 overs in his return to the Test side.

Considering the delicate state that the game is currently in, it is well possible that England may get out of the rut and put Australia under pressure, but as of now, it is the visitors that head into Day 4 as marginal favorites.

Who will win the first Ashes Test at Edgbaston, Birmingham? Let us know what you think.