ICC World Cup 2019: Predicting the fate of all the teams in the tournament using AI

We present a predictive analysis model for the 2019 ICC Cricket World Cup. We believe this predictive analysis strategy would be very useful for viewers, sponsors, and team strategists. This would also give insights to various cricket analysts and commentators about the features that play a crucial role in the statistical analysis.

This model is developed based on the historical data collected for the 10 participating teams (Afghanistan, Australia, Bangladesh, England, India, New Zealand, Pakistan, South Africa, Sri Lanka, and West Indies). The model was developed based on the squad announced by respective boards as of May 19, 2019. This article is an extension of the article presented here.

As one would observe, there has been significant changes in the probability of a team winning the tournament, which is a result of both player and team form.

Disclaimer: All the analysis are based on the fact that there are no injuries to each side.

AI Prediction for World Cup 2019

Afghanistan

Great spin attack

Good bowling options in the middle overs

Weak batting line up

No experience of playing in big tournaments

Can definitely cause some upsets especially with teams susceptible to spin

Prediction: League stage.

Australia

Tremendous improvement in the past few months

Good batting line up

Fantastic fast bowling trio

The emergence of Warner and Smith

Experience of winning world cups.

Lack of genuine all-rounder (like Faulkner)

Prediction: Semi-finalists. Once they enter the semi-finals, they have a probability of 45% to enter finals.

Bangladesh

Recently won a tri-nation tournament

Plenty of bowling options

Decent batting line up

The emergence of certain young players

Flat batting tracks can definitely help them

Spin can choke opponents, have lost numerous important games in the past

Prediction: League Stage.

England

Probably the best team on paper and in terms of statistics.

Red-hot favourites to win the World Cup.

Previous 2 World Cups were won by hosts

Well settled and balanced unit.

Slightly vulnerable bowling department, especially in terms of fast bowling (Jofra Archer could strengthen them, should he be included in the squad).

Prediction: Definite to semi-finals. Once they enter the semi-finals, they have a probability of 75% to enter finals.

India

Right next to England in terms of statistics.

Probably, best bowling attack in terms of balance, however, they lack a genuine left-arm quick.

Bumrah and spinners is their key to the World Cup.

Even though the form of Rohit, Shikhar and Virat contributes to a huge amount, it's their bowlers that can help them win the tournament.

If Rahul can continue his ipl form as either a No.3 or No.4 batsman, it will increase their chances (based on stats).

Only weakness could be their middle order which can be addressed with the form of Vijay, Jadhav or Rahul depending on Team's balance.

Prediction: Definite to semi finals. Once they enter the semi-finals, they have a probability of 65% to enter finals.

New Zealand

They have made it to semis to last 3 World Cups.

Definite contender to semis in terms of team balance.

Lack of X-factor player is keeping them off from winning championships.

Prediction: According to Classifier - League Stage. According to Neural Network - semi-finalists. 4th/5th ranking depending on how other results go.

Pakistan

They have a huge advantage of playing full-fledged series in England right before the WC.

If Amir can be included in the World Cup squad, it will increase their chances further.

Their performance in the recently concluded bilateral series with England indicates that their batsmen are in form.

Their probability nearly doubles if they can score 320+ as statistics indicate that they have a better record of defending a score.

Prediction: Semifinals. Once they enter the semi-finals, they have a probability of 55% to enter finals.

South Africa

The first time, they are entering a WC as not favourites in recent times.

Solid batting line up, however, their chances nearly doubles if AB de Villiers can be added [which isn't happening].

Rabada is their key with the new ball and in death.

Form of Quinton de Kock is their key to success as well.

Prediction: According to Classifier - League Stage. According to Neural Network - semi-finalists. 4th/5th ranking depending on how other results go.

Sri Lanka

They are entering the WC in very poor form in recent times.

They have a lot of unknown comodities including the leadership role of their captain which could spring a surprise or two.

Prediction: League Stage

West Indies

Power Hitters and Holder to their rescue.

However, their lack of winning championships in recent times including the tri-nation final with Bangladesh reduces their chances significantly.

Recent performances against England was admirable and would provide a strong challenge to teams with weak spin bowling options.

Prediction: League Stage.

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