India vs Australia 2023: 3 key factors that could determine the winner of the Border-Gavaskar Trophy

The Australian cricket team has arrived in India for the four-match Border-Gavaskar Trophy, which will begin with the first Test at the Vidarbha Cricket Association Stadium in Nagpur on February 9. As always, there is plenty of hype around the series as India-Australia Test battles over the last two decades have produced some fascinating contests.

The Aussies will be raring to make an impact as they have lost their last three series against India. The 2016-17 Border-Gavaskar Trophy, held in India, was won by the hosts 2-1. Team India registered their maiden Test series win in Australia during the 2018-19 tour.

Some critics downplayed the triumph, pointing out that David Warner and Steve Smith were missing due to their ball-tampering bans. Experts had no reason to complain, though, as India defeated a full-strength Aussie outfit in 2020-21.

The upcoming Test series will be hugely significant for India as well since they need to register a comprehensive win to have a chance of qualifying for the World Test Championship (WTC) final.

As the teams sweat it out ahead of the big battle, we analyze three factors that could go a long way in determining the fate of the teams in the Border-Gavaskar Trophy.

#1 How Australia tackle spin

David Warner has a poor Test record in India. Pic: Getty Images

For any visiting side coming to India, tacking spinners on turning tracks is the biggest challenge. Australia are preparing for a stern test by specifically focusing on this area of their game during practice.

The visiting batters are training on customized turning pitches in Alur as part of their preparatory camp. They have even hired the services of young Baroda off-spinner Mahesh Pithiya, whose bowling action resembles that of Ravichandran Ashwin.

While Australia must be complimented for putting in the hard yards during training and trying their best to replicate Test match conditions, taking on Ashwin, Axar Patel and Ravindra Jadeja (if declared fit) will be a challenge at a completely different level. They faltered during their previous tour in 2016-17, with Jadeja claiming 25 wickets and Ashwin 21.

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Smith was the leading run-getter during the four-match series played in India last time, slamming 499 runs at an average of 71.29. He is expected to do well again. However, Warner will be under pressure despite his vast experience. He has an extremely poor Test record in India. In 2016-17, he managed merely 193 runs in eight innings at an average of 24.12.

Marnus Labuschagne, Usman Khawaja, and Travis Head have displayed great form in red-ball cricket lately. However, they are yet to play a Test match in India. How Warner, Labuschagne, Khawaja, and Head tackle Ashwin, Axar and Jadeja could go a long way in determining which way the Test series goes.

#2 Indian batters’ tussle against Cummins and Lyon

Pat Cummins is a lion-hearted fast bowler. Pic: Getty Images

While Indian spinners are expected to rule the roost during the Border-Gavaskar Trophy, Australia themselves have a highly potent bowling attack. Skipper Pat Cummins has the ability to produce match-winning performances irrespective of the surfaces on offer.

During Australia’s historic visit to Pakistan, it was Cummins who led from the front with eight wickets in the Lahore Test as the Aussies clinched a hard-fought series.

Cummins and veteran off-spinner Nathan Lyon were the joint-leading wicket-takers during that Pakistan tour, claiming 12 wickets each in three Tests. Lyon has come up with some terrific spells against India over the years. The 35-year-old has claimed 34 scalps in seven Tests in India, with three five-wicket hauls. Australia also have two quality pacers in Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc (unavailable for the first Test).

India’s batters will be expected to tackle a strong Aussie bowling attack in home conditions. However, they do have a few areas of concern, which the Australians will be keen to exploit.

Captain Rohit Sharma has not played a red-ball match since March 2022 due to injury, health, and fitness issues. Virat Kohli and KL Rahul were extremely poor in Test matches last year. The unavailability of Shreyas Iyer for the first Test in Nagpur could put the line-up in a vulnerable situation.

#3 Impact of Rishabh Pant’s absence

Will Rishabh Pant’s absence prove to be decisive? Pic: Getty Images

This could be a massive factor that could swing the contest Australia’s way if India falter at key junctures. Cricket may be a team game, but over the years it has produced characters who have single-handedly won matches for their side.

If we talk about wicketkeeper-batters in Tests, Adam Gilchrist did it for Australia in the 2000s and Rishabh Pant has been doing it for India over the last couple of seasons.

It wouldn’t be wrong to say that India would have struggled to win the Test series in Australia during their 2020-21 tour without Pant’s significant contributions with the willow. His 97 in Sydney shifted the momentum of the Test and gave India the confidence to literally walk out of jail by drawing the game.

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At the Gabba, his unbeaten 89 led India to a historic win against all odds. The southpaw has produced a few more stunning knocks in red-ball cricket since, although not all have been in winning causes.

Pant’s absence leaves a massive hole in India’s middle order. His aggression with the willow has had a psychological impact on Australian bowlers in recent times. As Ian Chappell aptly wrote in his column for ESPNCricinfo: