Virat Kohli vs Sachin's records : Can he or can he not?

Virat Kohli is a modern day legend, hands down. He has reached such a stage in his career that more than his contemporaries, he would be compared to himself, time and again. And as has been the case with other legends of the game, he is bound to be compared with his idol, Sachin Tendulkar.

Although comparisons are not fair on both him and Sachin, such is the obsession of us fans with numbers and statistics that one cannot run away from them. At 29, the Indian captain is already counted among all-time ODI greats and is raising the bar higher everyday. He had a break out year in Tests in 2016, with his average jumping from 45 to 50. And comparisons in Indian cricket start with your debut.

In this article, I am not going to compare Virat and Sachin at similar stages of their respective careers, but would try to project Kohli's career further, about 8-9 years into the future. The basis of this analysis would purely be statistics, but injuries, loss of form and frequency of matches would be subjectively accounted for. The structure of international cricket would undergo rapid changes in coming years, with ICC giving its approval for Test and ODI leagues.

So let's dive in, one record at a time.

#1 Highest run aggregate in Test matches

Sachin scored 15,921 runs in 200 Tests, playing 329 innings at an average of 53.78. Virat Kohli, at present has scored 4658 runs in 60 Tests, playing 101 innings at an average of 49.55. Given his current form we can safely assume that his average would touch 50 in coming few matches.

He is still a whooping 11,263 runs behind the Master Blaster. A conservative estimate shows us that Virat should play for 9 more years, assuming he retires at 38. He might play more, if form, fitness and more importantly, luck remain by his side.

With the Test Championship coming into effect post 2019, we are looking at more number of Test matches to be played among the Top 9 teams. The proposed league would give each team six series over two years, each consisting a minimum of two matches, although member boards can decide the number of matches for a series among themselves.

Given India usually plays more against Australia, England and South Africa, a good estimate provides us with 20 matches over the two year cycle, although it can vary according to opponent. Accounting for matches missed due to injuries or 'rest' because of high workload, Virat should play about 150-160 Tests if he plays till 38. A conservative estimate of 140 matches seems to be a good calculation point.

So in 140 matches, Virat should play about 235 innings. Accounting for not outs, this gives us 220 dismissals. Kohli's average might rise further (to about 53-54) if his current form continues, and he might also go through a lean patch, like the one he had in England in 2014. Taking care of all of that, we would see Virat at a career average of 50 when he decides to hang his boots. That gives him 11,000 more runs.

Very close, but again, this was a conservative estimate. He might play the game longer, or have a longer period where he cannot find the middle of his bat, or may find himself on the other side of luck where, God forbid, a freak injury messes up everything for him.

Or he might soar new heights and outdo what he did in 2016, more than once. Who knows, but we can safely bet that 'if' everything goes right for Kohli, Sachin's record of Test runs is something definitely within his reach.

#2 Highest number of centuries in Test matches

Sachin was en emotion, Kohli is an experience - A quote on the internet

Sachin's 51 hundreds came in 329 innings, although he didn't score a single one in his last 40 innings. Virat has scored 17 in 101 innings. He is still 34 hundreds behind. Co-incidentally that's the total number of Test hundreds Gavaskar scored in his career, and held the record before Sachin did.

Virat has scored a century every 5.94 innings. He may not score Test hundreds with such frequency in his coming years. When Sachin scored his 51st hundred, he was scoring them at 5.67 innings per hundred. At the time of his retirement, that rate went up to 6.45. For Virat Kohli, a good conservative estimate would give us 8 innings per hundred.

An estimate of 235 innings gives him about 29 more hundreds. That leaves him with 6 more to break the record. A rate of 7 innings per hundred gives him 33 centuries, totaling to 50 Test hundreds at the end of his career. Still very close, but not quite there yet.

With cricket becoming more batting friendly in general, pitches becoming flatter across the world, rates at which hundreds are being scored is on a rise. Some of Virat's contemporaries have scored centuries at an even higher rate.

The thing with Virat is that even if he touches the '50 Test hundreds' mark, he would not play further just to break the record. That's not the Virat fans know. He would only play if he has the desire to win and can contribute to the team. Numbers don't put him much further away from Sachin. But cricket is much more that just statistics and numbers.

#3 Highest run aggregate in ODIs

If you want to know how the team is performing, look at Kohli's face - Nasser Hussain

One-day cricket is one format in which even if Virat Kohli retires today, he has nothing left to prove to anyone. But still, it would be interesting to see how high a mountain he would have scaled when he leaves the game.

Sachin scored 18,426 ODI runs in 463 matches, playing 452 innings at an average of 44.83. Given how the game changed during his career, that he played from an era when 240-250 was a par score to a time when even 320 were being chased easily, that average is nothing short of outstanding.

In his time, Sachin was the greatest ODI batsman 'ever', doesn't matter what people say about a certain West Indian.

Virat currently has 9030 runs, almost the halfway mark. Those have come in 202 matches, playing 194 innings at an average of 55.74. The catch here is that the proposed ICC ODI League significantly reduces the number of matches to be played in coming years, with 5-match or 7-match series becoming a thing of the past.

The proposed structure allows each team to play four home and four away series each comprising of three matches in the first cycle. This would move to all 13 teams in the league playing against each other next cycle onward. A conservative estimate gives about 180 matches to Virat till the 2027 World Cup.

Assuming he plays 160 ODI matches more, accounting for injuries and other factors, his current average of 55.7 gives him about 7500 more runs. That's a total of 16,500 runs in about 360 matches, still 2000 short of Sachin. And it is a lot more probable that his average might fall. A batting average of 53 at the end of his career puts him at 15,900 runs, way short of Sachin.

This has more to do with how international cricket will get restructured in the coming years than Virat's own batting abilities. If he can cross the 400 ODI mark, who knows what might be possible. Until then, we can assume that the ICC restructure has practically safeguarded Sachin's record.

#4 Highest number of centuries in ODIs

The kind of form he is in, he picked this ball yesterday afternoon - Harsha Bhogle

Virat Kohli scores one-day hundreds for breakfast. Such has been his prolific nature in the format that something short of a hundred is often considered a failure, much like Sachin. He is at his best while chasing, and if Virat Kohli gets going in a run-chase, he wins the match for the team on most occasions, increasing his hundred count on the way.

Sachin was just one short of '50 ODI hundreds' mark when he retired from the format. His 49 hundreds came in 452 innings, at a rate of 9.22 innings per hundred which was way above his contemporaries and people who played before him. Virat is already sitting at 32 hundreds in 192 innings, and a series without a Kohli hundred looks like an impossible dream.

Virat's centuries have come at a rate of exactly 6 innings per hundred. In this era, Hashim Amla has scored at 5.96 innings per hundred, Quinton de Kock at 6.76 innings per hundred, Shikhar Dhawan at 8.36 innings per hundred and AB de Villiers at 8.6 innings per hundred. Babar Azam has scored 7 hundreds in 35 innings!

Virat might not be way above his contemporaries, but what this shows is that ODI hundreds are now being hit at a rate higher than ever. Run scoring has become easier and fast-paced. If a batsman gets to his hundred before the 35th over and then gets out, it is assumed as a job half done. Such has become the nature of the game.

Virat is only 18 hundreds short of breaking Sachin's record. In 160 matches at 6 innings per hundred, he would score 26 more. Even a 'slower' rate of 8 innings per hundred would give him 20 centuries. By the end of his career, he would not only break Sachin's record, he would sail past it comfortably.

But how much ahead will he be of the people around him, only time will tell.

#5 Highest run aggregate in international cricket

Sachin played only one T20I ever, his and India's debut game in the format. Since then T20 cricket has come a long way. It has become as much a part of international calendar as ODIs and Tests. It is the main money-making machine for cricket boards across the world. The number of T20 internationals would only rise in coming years. It is as inevitable as climate change, albeit in a much shorter time frame.

Sachin aggregated 34,357 international runs in his career. Virat is at 15,631. He is still about 1500 runs short of the half-way mark.

The previous analysis of Test and ODI runs puts him at 31,500 runs at the end of his career, T20Is excluded. He currently sits at 1956 runs in T20Is. If he is to play for 8-9 years more, he can easily triple this number.

Any calculation here seems trivial. If both the previous estimates of Test and ODI runs come true and add to that the runs he would score in T20Is, Virat Kohli might become the first man on the planet to touch the 35,000 run mark in international cricket and go well beyond.

Bonus: 100 international hundreds

Our conservative estimate put Virat Kohli at 45 Test hundreds. In ODIs, we estimated him to score 55 hundreds or thereabouts. If he scores beyond our expectations, he would touch the 100 international hundreds mark in these two formats alone.

There might be some T20I hundreds on the way too. He has already scored 18 half-centuries in the format. He has 4 IPL hundreds to his name. A T20I hundred for Virat Kohli is just a question of when, not if.

So if we take a moment aside and think 'Can Virat Kohli scale the Eversest that Sachin created? Can he go where only God of Cricket has gone before him?' My conscious says, yes he can.

Will he? That's a story we all are waiting to watch unfold.