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The Australian GP will be the third race of the 2022 F1 season. The first two races, well, they were fun. We had Max Verstappen and Charles Leclerc battling against each other in Bahrain. The Dutchman's car, however, went kaput, which led to his retirement and a win for Leclerc.
In the second race of the season in Saudi Arabia, we had another battle between the two drivers but this time it was Verstappen who won the race with the Monegasque coming home in second.
Looking at the other sections of the grid, we have Mercedes struggling to catch up to the frontrunners while Haas and Kevin Magnussen are enjoying a resurgence in F1. The midfield battle is intense while teams like McLaren and Aston Martin have messed up big time and find themselves floundering down the pecking order.
All in all, the 2022 season, at least so far, has been a bag of surprises and excitement. There are certainly indications that the rest of the season is going to continue in the same vein. Having said that, and after recapping what we have seen so far, let's jump straight to the preview of the Australian GP.
Australian GP: Preview and Predictions
First, let's take a look at the pecking order that seems apparent after the first two races of the season.
Pecking Order
The 10 teams on the grid are right now divided into four groups.
#4 The Backmarkers (Aston Martin and Williams)
The first group is the backmarkers. We have Williams and Aston Martin firmly placed in this group. After the first two races, it has become obvious that these two teams are the slowest teams on the grid, with Aston Martin being just marginally quicker than Williams. Neither team has scored points in the first two races and it will be interesting to see how their season develops from the Australian GP onwards.
#3 Midfield (Haas, Alfa Romeo, Alpine, Alpha Tauri, and McLaren)
The second group is the midfield group and it has a highly competitive cluster of as many as five teams in it. There are the resurgent teams like Haas and Alfa Romeo that are benefitting from a turnaround this season. Then there are the usual suspects in Alpine and Alpha Tauri. And in the end, we have a slightly disappointed McLaren that is somewhat underperforming this season.
There isn't much of a gap between these teams to choose from. The track layout and the conditions will more or less determine which team will hold the advantage.
Having said that, Alpine is currently leading the standings for this group before the Australian GP. The winner for the best of the rest will be determined from this battle. Looking at how close these teams are to each other, it's anybody's guess who is going to nick the advantage.
#2 No Man's Land (Mercedes)
The name was coined by none other than Toto Wolff while reflecting on the plight of the German team. Mercedes is clearly not in the league of Ferrari and Red Bull. There is a clear gulf in performance levels for the Brackley-based outfit as compared to the other two teams.
Mercedes, on the other hand, is clearly a step above the midfield. The ease with which Lewis Hamilton carved his way through the field during the Saudi Arabian GP was clear evidence of the advantage the team has over the ones behind it.
Sure, Mercedes will be desperate to catch the front two teams and will be aiming to close the gap in the Australian GP. For now, however, it finds itself in no man's land where it is slower than the front two teams and quicker than the midfield.
#1 The Frontrunners (Red Bull and Ferrari)
At the front, we have the duo of Ferrari and Red Bull. They have fought for pole and the win in both the races and are expected to do the same in the Australian GP as well. There's not much to choose from in terms of overall pace between the two as both appear to hold an advantage of half a second per lap over Mercedes.
Key Storylines
#1 Track Layout changes, DRS zones, and what to expect?
The new track layout and the 4 DRS zones will bring a sense of intrigue going into the race. Before the changes were made, Albert Park was more of a well-balanced track with a bit of something for everyone. Now, the track is much faster, the slower sections are limited to a small part of the track after Turn 2 in Sector 1 and the finishing sequence of the lap in Sector 3.
To add to this, having 4 DRS zones but only two detection points throws a curveball on how drivers might approach racing. To be fair, it's hard to determine what exactly will be the impact of having such a huge section of the track aided by DRS, and we will need to see what happens in a two-car battle and when a chain of cars approaches the DRS zones.
For now, though, if the polls are to be believed, even F1 fans are not entirely on-board with 4 DRS zones in the Australian GP, with almost 80% thinking it is a bit of an overkill.
#2 Will Mercedes be able to close the gap to the front?
The Mercedes contingent has talked a lot in 2022. It started the season with the talk of Lewis Hamilton proclaiming that his team never makes mistakes. Toto Wolff laid the foundation of a strong response after what the team had to endure at the end of the 2021 season. And even after the first race, there were confident claims of Mercedes bouncing back soon and closing the gap.
We've reached Melbourne now and the clock is ticking for the German team. It's clear as day that Mercedes is not in the same league as Red Bull and Ferrari. Despite knowing that, the Australian GP has to be the race where Mercedes starts to show that it can cut down the deficit to the teams at the front.
Lewis Hamilton and George Russell are already more than twenty points behind Charles Leclerc and this gap is only going to increase until Mercedes is at par with Ferrari and Red Bull. The Australian GP has to be the race where you see the first statement of intent from Mercedes. If that's not the case, then the team can kiss goodbye to the hopes of fighting for either of the titles.
#3 Welcome back Sebastian Vettel!
Moving on from Mercedes to the feel-good moment of the Australian GP. We have Sebastian Vettel making a return to F1 this weekend. The German has missed the first two races of the season due to COVID-19 but will be making a return in Albert Park.
While there is certainly a feel-good element to the German's return, it will be very intriguing to see what Vettel can achieve at the Australian GP. The Aston Martin is just not a good car this season and is certainly a downgrade from what the four-time champion had last season. While Vettel will be happy to get back to racing in the Australian GP, it will be interesting to see what he can achieve with the 9th fastest car on the grid.
Form Guide
Who is in form?
When we look at the form guide, sure, Red Bull won the race in Saudi Arabia, but it's hard to say that Ferrari is not the form team right now. The Italian squad has maximized whatever results it can get and has not made too many mistakes.
It bagged a "1-2" finish in Bahrain and then when it moved to Saudi Arabia, despite losing a win to Max Verstappen, it did pick up a "2-3" finish in the end. That's four podiums in two races and an advantage of 41 points at the top of the leaderboard.
Mattia Binotto recently said that the team was much better prepared to fight for the title this season than in 2018. Whether that's the case or not is something we'll find out later in the season, but for now, the Italian team appears to have got off to a great start to the season.
Who is out of form?
The 2021 F1 season was a massive disappointment for Aston Martin. The team finished a distant seventh in the standings. Even then, Sebastian Vettel made two trips to the podium last season, one in Baku and one in Hungary, which was eventually taken away from the team.
Contrast that to the 2022 F1 season, Aston Martin is in a massive hole right now. The car can't buy a Q3 slot if it had to and talking about a points finish seems to be a bit of a long shot right now. On pace, it is the 9th fastest car on the grid right now and you have to question what have they been doing all this while.
Mercedes' struggles with its car have somewhat taken the focus off the fact that even the other Mercedes teams are struggling immensely this season. With Vettel coming back in this race, we might see the focus shift to Aston Martin and what it can do on the track this weekend.
Predictions for the Australian GP
Race winner
The track for the Australian GP is unlike the Saudi Arabian GP circuit, which had flat-out sections almost throughout the lap. The modified Melbourne track is more balanced with some slow speed sections leading to the fast speed ones. Ferrari and Red Bull were very close to each other in Jeddah and it can be said that the layout favored the latter team's machinery.
During the Australian GP, we feel that Ferrari will be a match for Red Bull in the fast speed section but can pull away in the slow speed parts of the track. Due to this, we're leaning towards Charles Leclerc to win the Australian GP after another close battle with Max Verstappen.
Surprise of the Australian GP weekend
Team
Haas had a rather average outing in the Saudi Arabian GP. The team raced with just one driver as Mick Schumacher crashed himself out of contention in qualifying. While Kevin Magnussen scored points, it wasn't as impressive an outing as Haas had in Bahrain.
To an extent, the circuit layout in Jeddah played to Alpine's strengths. In the Australian GP, however, one can expect Haas to be back at the top of the midfield once again as Albert Park is probably not as extreme a layout as Jeddah.
Driver
Considering everything that is going on at Mercedes, it has to be said that George Russell has been very impressive this season. He was more or less on the pace of Lewis Hamilton in Bahrain, and in Saudi Arabia, he ended up going for the better set-up. When Hamilton stumbled, Russell became the flagbearer for the team and finished fifth.
The young British driver has something to him that makes him undeniable on the F1 grid. We might even see him beating Hamilton again this weekend (now that will be a story, won't it?).
Disappointment of the weekend
Team
Aston Martin has stayed under the radar and its underperformance has not caught the eye of fans and pundits alike. By the end of the second race at Jeddah, however, it was becoming increasingly apparent that the 2022 Aston Martin challenger was not competitive at all.
The car hasn't had any hope of reaching Q3 in the first two races and points have been a distant dream. For the Australian GP, expect more of the same from Aston Martin as the team struggles to get to terms with the new regulations.
Driver
Nicholas Latifi is slowly but steadily catching the attention of F1 fans, sadly though, not in a good way. Latifi was thoroughly outclassed by Russell during their time together at Williams but that was looked at as the brilliance of Russell more than Latifi just being an average pay driver. This season, however, with Alex Albon teaming up with Latifi and meting out the same treatment to the Canadian, the opinions are starting to change.
It didn't help either that Latifi crashed out in both qualifying and the race in Saudi Arabia. For the Australian GP, there's not going to be much of a change either as Latifi just does not have a high ceiling as a driver.
