2025 F1 Canadian GP: Qualifying Predictions

The first day of running in the F1 Canadian GP is done and dusted, and we have Mercedes driver George Russell in the top position. The German team was the only team other than McLaren that brought upgrades this weekend.

Whether they played a role in the car being impressively quick is something we can't be sure of. However, Mercedes tends to do well in the F1 Canadian GP track layout, and the team did so again on Friday.

McLaren seemed surprisingly hard to handle, as both Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri appeared to struggle to get into a rhythm. Until the late run in FP2 on softs, things were a bit uncomfortable as well.

Both Lance Stroll and Charles Leclerc had a disappointing run, as both had shunts, which meant they missed FP2. As the day comes to an end and teams and drivers get ready for qualifying, what can we expect? Let's take a look at our predictions for qualifying.

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#5 The soft vs. medium tire choice is going to be pivotal

The first dilemma the teams would face would be between a soft tire and a medium tire. Unlike Imola, where the soft tires lasting a lap was a miracle, that's not the case here.

Hence, it would be somewhat interesting to see which direction each team takes, as the different tarmac could make the decision a tricky one for sure.

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#4 Yuki Tsunoda fails to make it to Q3

This might sound like a dig at Yuki Tsunoda, but it's not. However, it does appear that what he had found with the Red Bull in the first few races, where he was noticeably closer to Max Verstappen, is gone. The Japanese driver is just too far behind now, and even in FP1 and FP2, he's struggling to keep up.

For the F1 Canadian GP qualifying, it's going to be a tough ask to see him make it to Q3, even though that has to be the minimum expectation considering how good the car is looking in the hands of Verstappen.

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#3 Battle for Q3 will feature Aston Martin, Williams, and RB drivers

For the midfield teams, it does appear that the battle to take the lead would come down to the likes of Williams, RB, and Fernando Alonso in the Aston Martin. Haas and Sauber appear to be a step behind, while Alpine is still a bit peaky to make a clear judgment on it.

The battle for Q3 is going to come down to drivers like Alex Albon, Carlos Sainz, Fernando Alonso, Liam Lawson, and Isack Hajder. We're picking Alonso, Albon, and Hadjer to make it to Q3 of the F1 Canadian GP qualifying.

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#2 George Russell, McLaren duo, Max Verstappen, and Charles Leclerc to battle for pole

The gaps at the end are going to be very, very close, as has been the case in general with the F1 Canadian GP. There have been a few hiccups for McLaren, but it won't be a surprise if the team finds its way back. Mercedes looks good, and with qualifying set to take place at a somewhat similar time, the team should not ideally lose performance.

Ferrari's true situation will become clear when Charles Leclerc gets a chance to drive the car. Until then, it will be difficult to determine the team's actual position.

By the looks of it, the top 5 is going to feature Max Verstappen, Charles Leclerc, George Russell, Oscar Piastri, and Lando Norris battling it out for pole position in the F1 Canadian GP.

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#1 George Russell secures pole position for the F1 Canadian GP

Mercedes appears to be in a decent groove this weekend, and to add to that, the upgrade being introduced coinciding with the jump cannot be ignored. The German team has a strong performance baseline for the F1 Canadian GP, and unlike teams like McLaren, Red Bull, and Ferrari, George Russell has already shown his hand.

Will McLaren, Red Bull, and Ferrari find performance overnight? They should potentially, but if they don't, we know that Mercedes would be right there, fighting at the sharp end of the grid.