Did Fernando Alonso pull off another masterstroke with his Ferrari prediction?

Fernando Alonso's prediction of a Ferrari domination over the course of two races came partially true after the Prancing Horse's win at the 2024 Italian GP. The Aston Martin driver predicted the Scuderia would be "the car to beat" in Monza and Singapore.

Despite starting the race from P4, Charles Leclerc beat the competition from McLaren and clinched victory at Ferrari's home in Monza. Prior to this weekend at Zandvoort in the Netherlands, Fernando Alonso predicted that Ferrari would be difficult to beat in the upcoming two races.

"Next two races, for example, Ferrari should be the car to beat," He told the media at Zandvoort. "You know what we saw last year in Monza and Singapore, Leclerc winning Monaco this year, also for Singapore, I think they will be the favourite."

But was the SF-24's raw power that helped them beat the dominating McLaren in Monza? This seems obvious when looking at the race results. Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz started the race in P4 and P5 and while Leclerc did win, his teammate gained only one place and finished in P4.

But there is a twist to it.

Looking at the data, it is hard to say if Ferrari had the fastest car during the 2024 F1 Italian Grand Prix. During the start of the race and mid-race, when the SF-24 and MCL38 were on almost the same tire age, the latter was lapping a few tenths faster.

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Strategy and tire wear a major reason for Ferrari's win at home in Monza

The resurfaced asphalt at the Autodromo Nazionale Monza proved to be tough on the tires. While most drivers pitted twice during the race, Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz remained out. This gave the former the lead.

As McLaren started chasing both drivers, they were able to get ahead of Sainz without much competition. However, this gave the #16 car enough time to create an 11-second gap.

Oscar Piastri, who was lapping faster than his teammate Lando Norris, started chasing down the leading SF-24. However, the gap was hard to cover in the remaining laps and Leclerc won with a 2.6-second gap.

Comparing the fastest laps set by each car, Piastri was almost 1.3 seconds faster than Leclerc, and that too, 20 laps later than Leclercs fastest lap (laps 33 and 53). It is seemingly apparent that the SF-24 in no way was the fastest car during the Grand Prix. But the reason for their victory was the strategy.

McLaren attempted to keep both their cars out on a single tire for the entire race. However, they complained of issues with their front left tires to wear. Ultimately they had to come in for the second pit which allowed Leclerc to get into the lead.

Meanwhile, Sainz on P2 was able to provide some cover for his teammate as their rivals chased them on fresher tires.

The gap that Leclerc was able to create at P1 while the McLares were pitting for the second stint was a major reason why Ferrari got back to winning ways.

Looking forward to Singapore, it has been a strong ground for Ferrari. But a completely different track than Monza will provide a different challenge to the drivers.