F1 Preview: What to expect from teams and drivers in 2019

The winter is over, the testing is complete and by the end of this week the first race of the season will be finished. So, before the chequered flag gets waved for the first time, now seems like a good chance to make wild speculation about what’s to come, even if in one week half of these predictions may be proved to be completely wrong!

While the battle for top of the constructors is going to be a three horse race at most, and that's presuming that the now Honda powered Red Bull is able to compete with the powerful constructors engines, the competition for the top of the best of the rest is wide open to potentially of all of the teams.

Even the bottom of the grid is up for debate with Williams being the most likely to occupy it but their strong past in Baku could see them getting unexpected points that would jeopardize Alfa Romeo and Mclaren depending on how their upgrades progress throughout the season.

So with all this uncertainty with the positions of the team at the start of the season let alone by the end, it is still possible to make some predictions about where the teams might fall and what their difficulties might be going into the future. The first thing to ask is simply whether testing is useful for these predictions?

Short answer - yes - but not in the way you might think. Whilst I would love McLaren and Renault suddenly to have some of the fastest cars on the grid, the simple matter is that the teams probably won’t show their real potential until the first round of Qualifying.

However, general feelings about the teams can be useful for predictions (such as Ferrari being thought to be the strongest of the front runners). The other key feature is reliability and it’s there that we must start with our first team.

Williams

F1 Winter Testing in Barcelona - Day Four

A quick roundup of the facts: the lowest scoring team last season; the loss of a key member of the design team shortly before the start of this season; a car that wasn’t even ready at the start of the testing; then showed poor reliability on the circuit and had its testing ended early due to lack of parts.

George Russell definitely impressed in Formula 2 but far too often drivers are promoted into the formula one and while initially impressing are disillusioned by the move from racing for wins to struggling for points.

Still, it’s a better position than a returning driver who was uninspiring the last time he was in F1 and recently quoted as saying he felt only 20% ready after the end of the abysmal testing.

This is without a doubt the worst starting position for a team who almost every fan of the sport wants to see up at the front competing for wins and a Championship.

What might be even worse is that the clearly-floundering team is probably going to spend the season at the back of the pack?

Enduring questions about the job security of everyone in the team from the drivers to the team principal; with the only silver lining being Williams’ oddly high speed completely suiting the Baku circuit which will allow them to re-live their glory days for an all too brief moment.

Mclaren

F1 Winter Testing in Barcelona - Day Two

Ticking with teams that are languishing at the back instead of being at the front competing, we have McLaren.

A reasonable testing for both McLaren and Renault could be a sign of good things to come for the restructuring team, but it’s a position McLaren have found themselves in all too often, before being shown up in the first few weeks and spending the rest of the year at the back trying to work their way slowly through the midfield; before giving up to start work on the next year’s car and starting the whole cycle all over again.

I say first few weeks because oddly Melbourne seems to suit the underperforming team, in fact, their last podium finish, by Kevin Magnussen (of all people!) came on the Australian track.

The trouble for the McLaren team though seems to be they can’t identify the trouble. At the start of their slide the team blamed the Mercedes team for giving them second tier engines, then it was Honda and the now infamous quote of “GP2 engine!” from Fernando Alonso.

Just last year the team was predicting it would be top of the mid-field before it became apparent that the now-Renault powered car was way off the pace of the other teams supplied by Renault.

The one small hope for McLaren and its fans is that they finally seem to have faced reality and are in the process of rebuilding; so, with their heavy financial backing and a big rule change in a couple of seasons, the team may be getting ready to start competing in the next couple of years.

Haas

Ah Haas! When the American team entered the sport a few years ago I honestly was expecting them to take up the customary position of most new teams at the back.

Imagine my surprise when Haas became involved in the midfield battle with Renault and Force India and, even more than that almost came out on top.

Looking forward also seems to be positive for the team and, depending on a few factors, they could find themselves once again eyeing up the best of the rest position.

The only worry for Haas is that it seems to be a team in the style of the old F1 teams, by which I mean it’s held together with tape, good thoughts and luck.

Its driver lineup can either be one of the most dynamic pairings or completely shaky depending on the day; which is mirrored by the car that seems to want to defy expectations by performing at some tracks and then having serious steering problems at the next.

Add to this the team’s infamous showing at the last Melbourne race in which both cars had to retire from competing for 4th place due to bad pit stops – unforgivable! The only thing I can say for sure about the Haas team this season is that they will be interesting to watch.

Alfa Romeo

If I were to be completely honest there are several teams to look forward to, a couple of dark horses and some that will almost certainly be complete duds (see Williams above) but there is only one team that is a complete unknown and that is Alfa Romeo.

With a new name and new driver as well as an experienced world champion (along with its surprising but welcome forays into the points last season as Sauber) this team has the makings of a fun competitor in the mid group but, as with many of the other teams, there are potential issues.

For starters the team last year was at its peak due to its close ties with Ferrari and it’s still uncertain how close the two teams are with this new ownership. As well as that Kimi Raikkonen can hardly be described as enthusiastic on the best of days and just how much of this World Champion’s effort is going to go into driving round at the bottom of the points has to be a concern for any potential fans.

Still, if the stars align, it could very well be that in a couple of weeks I am forced to eat my words as Alfa Romeo follows in Haas’s footsteps to the fight for position in the mid-tier groups.

Racing Point

A real challenger for best of the rest this year has to be Racing Point, formerly called Force India, who now have the financial backing which may be the last little step to reach the top of the midfield battle they have been competing in for a number of years.

Last year saw the team put in a very respectable performance given it had to undergo lawsuits from one of its drivers, several serious accidents between the teammates (in the points as well which is a cardinal sin for the midfield where teams can be separated by the smallest of margins) and a new owner which led to the loss of all their points with most of the season behind them.

This year it has to be thought that with a more clear driver line up of number 1 and 2 drivers and a more secure position at the team’s headquarters we could be looking at the contender for the heavily contested fourth place in the constructors.

The only trouble I can say for this team is that the driver line up might become a problem. Lance Stroll can definitely be said to have had his seat bought by his dad acquiring the company and will undoubtedly be out to prove himself especially after his move led to the loss of arguably the most exciting young driver in Ocon (who I will say is a certainty to not only be back but feature heavily in the mid-season when contracts and moves start being brought up).

Combine a relative rookie with something to prove and Sergio Perez, a driver who has not had the best of relations with any of his teammates on the track and we could see even more inter-team battles.

It will be great for the sport but one has to wonder how that will work out for a team that will need every point it can get in a sure to be a close battle with Haas and Renault.

Renault

Speaking of Renault, if I had to pick my favorite to be at the top of the midfield battle, at least at the start of the season before upgrades start being brought in, it would be this team.

A proven track record as the engine supplier to Red Bull, a good team, a strong finish last season and quite possibly the most exciting driver lineup on the grid.

Putting aside whether Daniel Ricciardo’s move was from fear of Max or abandoning the sinking ship that is Red Bull (more on that in a second) Riccardo and Hulkenberg are in my opinion two of the best drivers on the grid and with a good package car under them should not only be fighting for the top of the midfield, but also looking for a few higher place finishes as the inevitable penalties for new parts and collisions take place in the Championship battle.

If there is anything to worry about with Renault it would be just how powerful is their engine, if Red Bull were eager to drop them to put in a Honda engine that has since coming back been anything but stellar.

Red Bull and Toro Rosso

I’m afraid I’ve had to lump these two teams together because, unless there is a mutiny in the Toro Rosso team, they will not only be second but will be so busy trying to help their parent team I can’t see them being able to compete much in the midfield.

Red Bull, on the other hand, could be a great watch: two young drivers eager to prove themselves and a series of end of season wins last year could see the team throw its hat back into the ring for the Championship battle.

But this dark horse could just as easily be going backward as forwards. I would love Honda to produce a great engine but the fact is they have not lived up to their F1 pedigree since rejoining the sport and one season with Toro Rosso just doesn’t seem like a long enough trial period to give them the keys to the Red Bull kingdom.

Throw in the abysmal reliability of the car being the most likely reason for Ricciardo leaving to join Renault (a prospect that gets more worrying if Ricciardo was like Hamilton when he moved to Mercedes - a move that was laughed at the time and has now led to four World Championships) and a serious likelihood of collisions between the two young very competitive drivers.

This could become a season of returning champions or a further fall from grace, either, way this will be a key season for Red Bull and entertaining for fans.

Mercedes and Ferrari

While the battle for the top of the midfield and the potential rise or fall of Red Bull are all set to be interesting, unless there is a significant change this is likely to be a two horse race again.

Charles Leclerc has good potential and while it’s possible he could come out of the gate swinging and win Melbourne it’s more likely he is going to spend time getting used to being in a top team and he will likely come into his own in the second half of the season.

Throw in Valtteri Bottas’s struggling and it’s possible that we will once again have a Vettel and Hamilton shoot out.

Looking at the cars, Ferrari is thought to be the stronger team after the testing but Mercedes is possibly still the faster of the two in Qualifying, which could prove crucial if the downforce dependence of the previous two seasons leads to a lack of overtaking again.

It’s too close to call but going with my gut I’d have to say that, even if Ferrari are the stronger team, Mercedes’s ability to adapt and improve along with a history of good reliability could give them the edge as the season goes on.

Free practice Roundup

In many ways, free practice is similar to the winter testing, in that no team seems eager to show their true pace. Last year at Melbourne, Ferrari seemed to be very competitive with Mercedes in free practice before the German team turned the engine up and found a half second difference over the hopeful challengers.

Still, free practice can show some trends even if nothing can be taken for granted. Ferrari, for instance, was slower than Lewis Hamilton (Bottas seemed to struggle in FP1 as he continued his to be overshadowed by his World Champion teammate); though in FP2 the Red Bull drivers both placed ahead of Vettel who was complaining that something felt wrong with the car, especially in the first sector.

While the teams’ positions are likely to change between free practice and the end of qualifying, the competition between teammates is more observable in free practice. In that regard, it was great to see Pierre Gasly competing with Verstappen and apparently not overwhelmed by the situation - which was a definite possibility with Leclerc who could only find 9th in FP2 behind the likes of Alfa Romeo - and a very welcome appearance in the top ten for Kimi Raikkonen.

Ricciardo initially struggled with his new Renault while Hulkenberg had electronic difficulties, but both put in more representative times later in FP2 as they finished in the top ten.

Other than that, Williams remained glued to the bottom of the grid and Racing Point (formerly Force India), McLaren and Toro Rosso all seemed a bit lackluster. It was good to see a return of Kvyat who placed ahead of his teammate; a feat the returning Kubica could not match, as he took up the place at the very back of the grid.

So, while the midfield battle is anyone’s guess, depending on just how much effort was put into the cars at the front, Mercedes seem to have the edge over Ferrari and Red Bull look ready to make this a three horse race to the line.

But as I stated at the start of this page, not everything will be as it seems and a lot will change between now and the end of the weekend. While there are still many questions left, such as will downforce continue to be an issue, and who is going to make the inevitable mess up in the pit lane?

Possibly the most pressing question and one we will be closer to answering are, is Hamilton on his way to an astounding sixth world championship, or will someone finally rise up to challenge him?