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Without a doubt, the one decision you need to get right every week for Fantasy Premier League (FPL) success is your captain pick. Nailing it can be the difference between a good or bad gameweek and often a haul can make up for deficiencies from the rest of your side.
Ideally, I look for a home fixture for a 'top six' side against a weaker opponent, preferably a bottom six or promoted side, but factors such as penalty duties and set pieces for the player play a huge part. The five candidates below have been listed in order of preference, with Salah likely to be captained by the majority of the game after his impressive display in the Community Shield.
Note: The text in brackets of each sub-head refers to the opponent each of these players play against in Gameweek 1.
#1 Mohamed Salah (NOR)
With 54 goals and 36 assists over the last two seasons, the Egyptian is the top pick for this week. No midfielder took more shots on home turf than Salah's 75 and he also led the way for shots on target (SoT) (31). Only Mane beat him for goals scored (18 to 13) and for 'big chances' (19 to 14) amongst midfielders playing at home. He was also Liverpool's most creative midfielder at Anfield with 38 attempted assists.
The Reds scored a total of 89 goals last season, only Man. City (95) were more prolific. Their total of 108 'big chances' was also only beaten by the Champions' 125. They landed 218 SoT with only Man. United (222) and Man. City (255) finding the target with more regularity. Norwich have an attack minded philosophy which led to them conceding 57 goals in the Championship last year while keeping only 13 clean sheets, the eighth best in the division.
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14 of their matches involved four or more goals and their most frequent fulltime scoreline was 2-2, indicating that the opening fixture of the season could have loads of points available for us FPL managers.
#2 Harry Kane (AVL)
With a full preseason behind him after the exertions of last summer and Spurs settled in their new stadium, Kane will be eager to kickstart his season after traditionally starting slowly. He missed the end of the campaign due to an ankle injury but still managed 17 goals and six assists over the 2423 minutes he featured for Spurs.
Despite the limited gametime, only three forwards managed more shots (102) than the Englishman and only four were afforded more ‘big chances’ than his 23. Kane’s 52.8 minutes per SoT was the best amongst forwards to feature for at least 1200 minutes and penalty duties further add to his appeal. Only Arsenal (73), Liverpool (89) and Man. City (95) scored more goals than Spurs’ 67 over the season and they were also fourth best for minutes per chance created with 6.7, indicating their attacking prowess.
Like Norwich, Villa are also a team with an attacking philosophy which is evidenced by the fact that they managed only 12 clean sheets last season with 10 teams bettering that number. They conceded a whopping 61 goals over their 46 matches and the return of Tuanzabe to Man. United after the expiry of his loan spell means that their backline is unsettled. The Englishman presents an excellent alternative to Salah and given his lower ownership, represents an explosive differential option.
#3 Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (NEW)
The top scoring striker last year, Aubameyang was tied for the golden boot on 22 goals with Salah and Mane. He registered more 'big chances' (36) than any other forward in the league and only Aguero (43), Kane (46) and Mitrovic (47) landed more shots on target than his 39. The likely absence of Lacazette means that the Gabonese should feature in the preferred central striking role and will also be taking penalties.
Scoring goals was not a problem for the Gunners last season as only Liverpool (89) and Man. City (95) scored more goals than their 73. Newcastle have been embroiled in turmoil all summer and St. James Park is likely to be a nervous place for their first game of the season. The Magpies were a resilient outfit under Benitez but still conceded 48 goals, of which 25 were at home.
It remains to be seen whether Steve Bruce can deliver the same results as Benitez and the Gunners have a great opportunity to take advantage of the Magpies' malaise.
#4 Raheem Sterling (WHU)
Now one of the key men in Pep Guardiola's side, Sterling's 67 goal involvements (35 goals 32 assists) across two seasons is extremely impressive. Amongst midfielders, only Salah (322) registered more penalty box touches than Sterling's 298 and only the Liverpool duo (Salah 29 and Mane 26) registered more 'big chances' than his 20.
He was also fifth highest amongst midfielders for shots in the box (61) and is expected to play up front given the lack of match fitness for Aguero and Jesus. No team scored more than Man. City's 95 goals last season and they won 0-4 in the same fixture last year with Sterling finding the back of the net.
The Hammers conceded 27 goals in home games last year, the eighth worst in the league and only six teams conceded more 'big chances' than their 37 on home turf. Sterling can be backed with confidence as Guardiola's men look forward to getting their season off to a good start.
#5 Callum Wilson (SHU)
One of the standout FPL assets of the 2018/19 campaign with 14 goals, 12 assists and 22 bonus points, Wilson is a great differential captain pick for this gameweek. No striker created more 'big chances' than Wilson's 13 or registered more assists than his 12.
Only Aubameyang (36) and Vardy (33) registered more 'big chances' than his 28 amongst forwards. Only four teams ( Chelsea 96, Man. Utd 98, Liverpool 108 and Man. City 125) registered more 'big chances' than the Cherries' 95 and only the 'top six' scored more goals than their 56. Although Sheffield Utd. had the best defensive record in the Championship last season, the step up to the Premier League is massive.
It is also worth mentioning that the Blades kept a clean sheet in 39% of their away games versus 52% on home turf so are definitely more porous on the road. If you're looking for an explosive captain pick thats different from the pack, Wilson's your man.
