English Premier League: Season predictions

With the season starting in just under two weeks from now and the transfer drama becoming increasingly irritating with each passing day, this seems to be the ideal time to make predictions and previews. This article makes predictions on how the table may look like come the end of the 2013/14 Premier League season. Let us begin from the bottom of the table.

The relegation candidates

Crystal Palace’s ability to cope without Wilfried Zaha in the Premier League will determine their prospect in the top division

As is the norm, two out of the three promoted teams are heavily predicted to go down immediately. Following that trend, I would choose Cardiff City and Crystal Palace to get relegated and Hull City to survive – transfer activity being the basis of my choice.

Palace finished fifth in the Championship last season and had to rely on Wilfried Zaha winning a penalty in the playoff final against Watford to clinch promotion. Now that Zaha has left, they must find a new talisman to provide the spark. So far, they have signed Stephen Dobbie from Brighton and Hove Albion, Dwight Gayle from Peterborough United, Elliot Grandin on a free transfer (previously played for Blackpool), Jerome Thomas from West Brom, and Jose Campana from Sevilla, all for undisclosed sums.

With the exceptions of Thomas and Camapana, top flight experience seems lacking. Gayle is highly rated, and is expected to fill Zaha’s shoes, but let us not get carried away so soon, shall we? Palace have signed two players from clubs that finished below them and one from a club which couldn’t make it past the playoffs. Andre Moritz and Alex Marrow have been sold to Championship clubs.

Essentially, they have added Championship players (just how much Thomas and Campana can really contribute is doubtful), and this is precisely why I see them going back to the same division in a year’s time. And then, just for an honourable mention, they’ve got the eccentric Ian Holloway as the manager! Remember Blackpool’s short and sweet Premier League stay?

Cardiff City’s transfer activity has also been similar. Andreas Cornelius is the only signing from abroad. Simon Moore from Brentford and John Brayford from Derby County are their lower league imports.

Their biggest signing so far has been defender Steven Caulker from Tottenham. Again, with the exception of Caulker, top-flight experience seems missing. Overall, it is the same squad which ran away with the Championship last season, with a couple of exits and double the number of arrivals.

Among the survivors, if last year’s league table is to be considered to pick the final relegation spot, it would be a choice of either Sunderland, Stoke City, or Newcastle United.

I would pick Sunderland, simply because none of the others around them have had a transfer window as busy as they have. Stoke City are slowly moving on from route one football, while Newcastle are getting rid of the garb.

The Black Cats, meanwhile, have had eight entries and seven exits (it would take a lot of space to mention the names, so I will leave that bit), and we are still counting. Plus, their manager is as explosive and eccentric as anyone could get. He looks determined to replace the entire squad that he inherited, rather than addressing each area at a time.

We have seen how such wholesale changes never end up working (QPR, for example) and Sunderland do not seem to have noticed that. They need more variety in the type of players they are signing. All that they are adding now is work rate, which alone cannot keep them up.

The creative spark is missing, and going by Di Canio’s penchant for physical and hard-working players, that doesn’t look like being ignited any time soon. With more teams abandoning the kick-and-hope style of play and relying on creativity with the ball, Sunderland could be the ones who get caught out.

Teams to get relegated: Crystal Palace, Cardiff City, Sunderland

The Top 4

Andres Villas-Boas can challenge for the top four if he could spend the £100 million safely, which he would potentially get from the Gareth Bale sale.

Unlike previous seasons, the top of the table is the most difficult area to predict this time.

Tottenham have added Roberto Soldado which means Adebayor is on his way. The highly-rated Paulinho and Nacer Chadli come in from Corinthians and FC Twente respectively. But the real focus here is on Gareth Bale. Assuming he departs, Tottenham will have another £100m added to their pre-planned budget.

If spent wisely on the right players, Tottenham can even challenge for the title. AVB has the experience of winning trophies from his stint at Porto. While selling Bale would undoubtedly be a big blow, the price being quoted is too good to refuse.

With the £100 million, they can sign a couple of defenders and midfielders and another striker if required. If they can attract big names using their Bale cash, they are the team to look out for.

Tottenham’s great neighbours, meanwhile, are having a disastrous window. Promises of Higuain and Rooney soon turned into a tug-off-war with Liverpool over Luis Suarez, and the Gunners are still stuck with the duo of Bendtner and Chamakh in their ranks. I still cannot comprehend why they are willing to spend in excess of £40 million for the troublesome Suarez when they could have got Gonzalo Higuain for just as much earlier. Puzzling indeed.

Yaya Sanogo is the only player they have actually signed, in spite of Arsene Wenger’s insistence that there is money to spend. 12 players have either been sold, released, or loaned – Andrei Arshavin the most notable one. The squad looks a bit thin at the moment, and if the rumoured size of that war-chest is true, a bunch of players are on their way.

Just who they are, and whether they are from the French league or not, remains to be seen. On the positive side, for once, the mood around Arsenal is a bit different – the rumours are about who is coming in, rather than who is going out. Considering their activity so far, nothing big apart from Suarez seems to be on the cards, other than some more unknown imports.

Going by my narration of Spurs’ progress and Arsenal’s apparent stagnation, you may have formed an opinion by now that I’m counting Arsenal out of the top four. But I am not. The only reason for that is their manager. As an ESPN commentator put it last season, “no matter what, they always get there in the end”. It could not have been put more aptly.

To Chelsea now, who are apparently already the favourites just because they signed a new manager! Their strategy to look for the young and promising is in full swing. Andre Schurrle and Marco van Ginkel are the latest youngsters to join Jose Mourinho’s second generation, while much-needed cover has been bought in the goalkeeping department (read, Mark Schwarzer).

The average age has considerably dropped with the release of Ferreira, Malouda and Benayoun. The squad is extremely deep now, with cover for each position. Despite the relatively young age, the experience of winning a trophy has already been learnt, courtesy the Europa League.

With a universally accepted manager now, under whom they never lost a league game at home, Chelsea are firm favourites for the league title (assuming that the owner does not lose his mind and start hunting for a new manager mid-season).

Over to Manchester, and the contrast between the two clubs’ activities is there to see. City have found themselves a manager who has always left clubs in a better situation than the predecessor left it. Manuel Pellegrini recognized a need for width and bought the Spanish international Jesus Navas, and signed Fernandinho to complement Yaya Toure in the middle since City had become too reliant on the Ivorian.

The forward department looked short, thus came in Alvaro Negredo and Stevan Jovetic. Basically, they have recognized needs and bought accordingly, while clearing space for the new arrivals. So far, it has been a well planned transfer season for City, which puts their squad in great shape to regain the title. Under a manager who took unfancied Malaga into the Champions League knockout stages, it would be difficult to bet against City finishing anything other than champions or runners-up.

If City have had a superb transfer season, their neighbours have had anything but. Similar to Arsenal’s promise of signing a new striker, United have been found wanting in central midfield. They made a mess of Thiago Alcantara, and are repeating it with Cesc Fabregas at the moment. Kevin Strootman was a long-term target, but he chose Rome rather than Manchester.

Suddenly, Maroune Fellaini is realistically the only quality player they can get for that position. Scholes has retired while Ryan Giggs has taken up coaching responsibilities along with playing, so they are going to miss 21 years’ of top-flight experience.

The sooner they get rid of Anderson and Nani, the better for them – Jesse Lingard, Adnan Januzaj and Wilfried Zaha are waiting. United have been dormant so far in the market (Guillermo Varela is the only signing), and if they lose Wayne Rooney despite their firm stand, they may start to panic buy.

Last season’s title-winning squad was said to be one of Ferguson’s worst. Yet, they ran away with the title. This time, the squad is more or less similar. But the big question here is whether David Moyes can handle the pressure. It was only due to Ferguson’s presence and RVP’s heroics that United won the title last season. In case RVP gets injured, and Moyes finds the going tough, United may end up being also-rans in the title race, let alone seriously challenging for it. Even worse, I fear they might even slip into a scrap for fourth spot if injuries pile up.

Top 4 (in no specific order): Chelsea, Manchester City, Arsenal, Manchester United – Irrespective of Gareth Bale staying or leaving, Spurs to miss out by a whisker yet again. I expect a close fight between Manchester United and Spurs for fourth, with the Red Devils sneaking through.

Southampton have made a shrewd signing in Victor Wanyama

Team to watch out for – Southampton

There was a report that Southampton could have got 25% of what Madrid are willing to pay Tottenham for Bale. But the deal was cancelled when Southampton got into turmoil in 2008.

The Saints must be kicking themselves now – that cash would have worked wonders. Still, they have done well so far. They have convinced the highly sought Victor Wanyama to help them scrape into Europe and also signed experienced defender Dejan Lovren from Lyon.

They have cleared some space in the squad and seem to be buying according to a plan. Pochettino did well to save them from relegation last season and even had them playing some pretty football. They have succeeded in keeping Luke Shaw, the next big superstar from their famous academy.

They were predicted to get relegated last season, but ended up surviving quite comfortably after their managerial change. Their transfers show that they intend to build on that rather than setting the same goal again. Unless they suffer the second season syndrome, they can spring a few surprises here and there and entertain like Swansea did.

Paul Lambert’s Aston Villa continue to put their faith in youth, which almost got them relegated last season. Most of the players they have signed this time are from abroad, and this is another gamble they are taking. Most importantly though, they have convinced Benteke to stay. He may prove to be the difference once again.

With the squad that they possess right now, it is next to impossible to predict where they may end up – anything from 8th to 17th looks equally probable. Definitely a team to keep a watch on. Where will they finish in the table eventually?

Mark Hughes

Manager to watch out for – Mark Hughes

Hughes had such a disastrous spell at QPR that it put his respectable reputation at stake. Whether he actually signed the players that QPR did or whether they were the product of Tony Fernandes’ fancy is anyone’s guess, but one thing is clear – Hughes could not handle such a sudden, severe change in his squad.

Managing Stoke City is now his shot at redemption. Stoke City want to do away with the unfortunate attention that their playing style gets, hence the move to replace Pulis with Hughes.

Last season, Stoke were one of the most boring teams in the league and unexpectedly got dragged into the relegation fight. Hughes needs to keep them well clear of the bottom three and simultaneously change the way they play. The signs towards changing the style are looking good at the moment – Rory Delap has been sold, which means no more of those famous long throws into the box.

Hughes must keep away from the bottom three at all costs and get Stoke playing in a different manner. If he manages that, he would have regained some respect he lost in London.

Come the summer of 2014, these predictions might start looking lunatic. But what’s wrong in making them?

Let the fireworks begin!