EPL 2016/17: Predicting the final Top 4; Liverpool, Man City, Man Utd or Arsenal - who misses out?

Premier League Top 4
Six teams – four spots – two already guaranteed

After another weekend of games, the Premier League looks all set for a photo finish – both at the top of the table and in the race for the top four spots. Tottenham Hotspur's loss to West Ham on Friday night will give Chelsea a huge advantage when they play Middlesbrough on Monday night but the Blues are not assured of the title just yet.

However, both sides are now so far head that they are assured of qualifying for the Champions League no matter what happens below them. Four other teams now vie for the final two spots that will decide whether they play on Tuesdays and Wednesdays or on the dreaded Thursday nights in the Europa League.

We take a look at what each team has in store and where they could finish in the table.

#TEAMPLDGFGAGDPTS
1Chelsea3472294381
2Tottenham3571234877
3Liverpool3671422970
4Man City3570373369
5Man Utd3551272465
6Arsenal3466422463

Also read: A playoff may decide the EPL’s final top 4 and Champions League spots


Liverpool

Liverpool Top 4
Liverpool have struggled against weaker teams

Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool are the team that have probably blown their chances of finishing at least in the top three and automatically qualifying for the Champions League group stages. Like Chelsea, they have not had to contend with European football this season and only had domestic games to focus on.

It begs the question why they are not higher up in the table instead of 11 points behind the Blues having played two games more. Among all the top six teams, the Reds have played the most games and their eventual position is not in their hands anymore. It now depends on results going their way.

Klopp’s side have a stellar record against the other top six teams competing for the Top 4. They did not lose a single game to any of the top six teams. They beat Arsenal twice and they beat Chelsea, Tottenham and Manchester City once, drawing the rest.

But it's their results against teams lower down the table that have let them down. With two games left, they now play West Ham (away) and Middlesbrough (home). In the reverse fixture, they drew with the Hammers but beat Boro. We could see similar results and the Reds will finish with 74 points.

Manchester City

Manchester City
Manchester City’s title challenge faded away midway through the season

After winning the first six games of the season on the trot, everyone expected Pep Guardiola to run away with the title as he had done so many times before in La Liga and Bundesliga. However, the former Barcelona and Bayern Munich boss then suffered a mini-slump at least three times this season and he is now assured of finishing a season without a trophy for the first time in his relatively short career.

It was a rude wake-up call and Guardiola soon realised that he had to adapt his methods to get results in England. The type of football played in the Premier League was a culture shock of sorts and the Catalan boss soon realised his squad was not up to the mark – especially in defence – in spite of investing heavily in the summer.

Manchester City have three games left this season – Leicester City (home), West Bromwich Albion (home) and Watford (away). Technically, Leicester are still the defending champions and have played well since the departure of Claudio Ranieri.

Craig Shakespeare has brought a semblance of order back to the Foxes and they could give Guardiola another run for his money. The reverse fixture saw Leicester thrash them 4-2 with Jamie Vardy grabbing a hat-trick. But Leicester have played with caution on the road and this could end in a draw.

However, they did beat West Brom 4-0 and may do so again with Tony Pulis’ side having nothing to play for. But with the game at the Etihad, the Baggies may park the bus as they have done against top sides in away games. The game against Watford could also see City winning.

Based on those results, City could finish with 76 points.

Manchester United

Manchester United Top 4
Mourinho chose to focus on the Europa League to get into the Champions League

No matter which way Jose Mourinho spins it, Manchester United have failed to capitalise on results around them to guarantee themselves a Top 4 spot. Liverpool crumbled with a loss to Crystal Palace and a draw with Southampton while Arsenal were there for the taking at the Emirates.

However, their last three games have seen poor results. A draw in a drab Manchester derby, a draw at home against Swansea and finally a loss against Arsenal – a result that brought to an end the unbeaten run that saw them 13 games and drawing 12.

Draws at home to teams such as Hull, Bournemouth and West Brom have not helped either. While Mourinho has pointed out fatigue as a factor, he had brought it upon himself by focusing on winning the League Cup and starting key players in those fixtures instead of resting them.

The Europa League win is now his ticket to the Champions League even though results in the league could still see the Red Devils finish fourth. But they now play Tottenham (away), Southampton (away) and Crystal Palace (home).

Spurs will most likely win the tie looking at their form prior to the West Ham loss (nine consecutive wins) and they have the added incentive of finishing their final game at White Hart Lane with a win (remember, the same thing happened with West Ham last season at the Boleyn Ground).

United could beat Southampton but their final game is three days before a potential Europa League final and Mourinho could rest players again. And it’s against Crystal Palace who beat Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool and they could be trying to avoid relegation. A draw is highly likely if that is the case and United could finish with 69 points.

Arsenal

Arsenal Top 4
Will Wenger finish outside the Top 4 for the first time in his Arsenal reign?

After blowing their best chance to win the Premier League title last season, Arsenal have slipped up this season and their current position in the table reflects the state of affairs at the club. Arsene Wenger may never have seen such a poisonous atmosphere at the club and the fans are rightly infuriated with how the club is run and the club’s failure to compete with the best following promises from the board two years ago.

The FA Cup is their only hope for a trophy this year (where they play Chelsea in the final). And their 2-0 win over Manchester United (Wenger’s first ever win over Mourinho) to end their unbeaten run may lift their confidence and fight for a strong finish.

However, Arsenal’s Top 4 hopes are out of their hands. Catching up with Liverpool is their only hope of qualifying for the Champions League and that can only happen if both Liverpool and United fail to get results in their respective fixtures.

The Gunners have two games in hand on Liverpool but even if they win both they fall one point short with another two games to go. The schedule is kind with games against Southampton (away), Stoke (away), Sunderland (home) and Everton (home).

Arsenal have already beaten the Saints (twice if you count the FA Cup) and Stoke at home. The Potters have been inconsistent and won only one of their last four games at home. Sunderland have already been relegated and have nothing left to play for as do Everton who have no hope of finishing higher than 7th. But a draw is very much possible against either Stoke or Everton.

Wenger’s teams have always finished strong following the regular capitulations in February-March and their new formation could see them cruise through the rest of the fixtures and finish with 73 points.

The final Premier League table?

Champions League Top 4
The Top 4 qualify for the Champions League

Based on the predicted results, this is how the table could look on the final day of the season.

1) Chelsea: 91 points

2) Tottenham: 84 points

3) Manchester City: 76 points

4) Liverpool: 74 points

5) Arsenal: 73 points

6) Manchester United: 69 points

Chelsea, Tottenham and Manchester City go directly into the Champions League group stages while Liverpool will have to go through the qualifying round at the start of the next season.

Arsenal could fall short and will have to make do with the Europa League while Manchester United have to win the Europa League to qualify for the Champions League.


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Edited by Staff Editor