Golden Boot: Ranking the top 5 currently and predicting who will win it

Lionel Messi or Cristiano Ronaldo: Who among the two supreme goalscorers leads the tally?
Lionel Messi or Cristiano Ronaldo: Who among the two supreme goalscorers leads the tally?

The European Golden Boot or Golden Shoe is an award given to the player who finishes as the league scorer in Europe. Since 1996-97, a point system based on the league strength is the instrument for awarding the prize. The goals scored in the top 5 leagues earn two points each. Those scored in leagues 6 to 21 earn 1.5 points each and for every other league, the multiplication factor is set to 1.

The last three winners of the prize have all been from Barcelona. Lionel Messi is the current holder and two-time running winner, while Luis Suarez gathered the prize in 2015-16. With only a select few games to go this season, we are almost done with the final list of highest goalscorers. Although, there can be a few additions or omissions in this business end of the season.

Let us take a look at the current top 5 in the goals galore and try and predict who will take home the shoe.

#5 Robert Lewandowski (21 goals x2: 42 points)

The Polish striker is a mandatory presence in the Golden Boot race.
The Polish striker is a mandatory presence in the Golden Boot race.

Polish striker Robert Lewandowski is currently 5th in the Golden Boot ranking. The Bayern Munich frontman has notched up 21 goals and 7 assists in 29 games this season. He has also scored a chunk of goals in the Champions League but unfortunately, that won't be counted for the prestigious award.

Lewandowski netted twice in the latest league game against Werder. Bayern Munich, who currently sit on top of the league table, have four more fixtures remaining in the league this season. With Borussia Dortmund right on the tail of the current holders and also Bayern's relief from European football till next season, it is uncertain that Kovac would rest the striker.

It means that he has four more games to go to add to his tally. However, it seems uncertain that he will win the award because of the wide gap between him and the others ahead.

#4 Mbaye Diagne ( 28 goals x1.5: 42 points)

The wildcard entry: Mbaye Diagne
The wildcard entry: Mbaye Diagne

A surprise entrant in the list, Mbaye Diagne might not be known to many of the football fans. Over 6ft tall and plying his trade in the Turkish Super Lig, Mbaye is 27 years old. He represents Galatasaray who are currently on the second spot in the league table.

The Senegalese striker moved to Galatasaray only earlier this year and has scored 8 goals for the Turkish club this season. The remaining 20 goals were scored by him in the same league with his former side, Kasimpasa, who are currently in 9th position.

He will have at least 5 more league games this season to try and add to his tally. However, his league and multiplication factor doesn't do much good to him. Even though he has more goals than Lewandowski, Piatek, and Luis Suarez currently, he needs to score a minimum of two goals to leapfrog their solitary goal. It is good that he has made it to this list, but it is likely that he will slip out of the top 5 when all is said and done.

#3 Fabio Quagliarella ( 22 goals x2: 44 points)

36-years-old and still outscoring a young Piatek and a poised Ronaldo: Fabio Quagliarella
36-years-old and still outscoring a young Piatek and a poised Ronaldo: Fabio Quagliarella

Age is just a number and Quagliarella is living proof of it. He is ahead of many great strikers including Suarez, Aubameyang, Firmino, Hazard, etc. in the race to the Golden Boot. When Cristiano Ronaldo joined Juventus, many of us would have thought that he would be the automatic top-scorer. No sir, Fabio is well ahead, in fact, 3 goals ahead of the Portuguese star.

In 32 games with Sampdoria this season, Quagliarella has scored 22 goals and also got 8 assists. He currently leads the pack in Italy, just ahead of Krzysztof Piatek's 21 goals. Sampdoria has 5 more league games to play this season and the 36-year-old is expected to start in all of them. One of the league games, however, is against Juventus who have already been crowned the winners of the Serie A.

However, even though he might end up as the top scorer in Italy, that definitely won't be the case in Europe, because two other people are still far ahead. Let us move to them.

#2 Kylian Mbappe (30 goals x2: 60 points)

Kylian Mbappe: A younger talent in possession of the Golden Boot?
Kylian Mbappe: A younger talent in possession of the Golden Boot?

Yes. Far ahead of any other player who is chasing with a huge gap of 16 points with the immediate next player. Kylian Mbappe is a goalscoring machine at just 20 years of age. Only Sergio Aguero and Ronaldo Nazario have reached the 30 goal mark under that age. Even the great Lionel Messi first scored 30 goals aged 22.

In 27 Ligue 1 games this season, Kylian Mbappe has scored 30 goals and also dished 7 assists to go with. Just like Juventus, PSG has been crowned champions in their league too. They have five more league fixtures remaining this season and Kylian also scored a hattrick in his last game. With the league sealed, it remains a doubt whether Kylian will start each and every game as Tuchel would want to experiment with the team.

Kylian's best chance is to score in whatever games Tuchel would actually field him because even that might not be enough to get the Golden Boot in his bag.

#1 Lionel Messi (33 goals x2: 66 points)

Two times reigning defending Golden Boot winner: Lionel Messi
Two times reigning defending Golden Boot winner: Lionel Messi

Only Lionel Messi has more and there is no shame in it. Lionel Messi is running absolutely berserk in the LaLiga, fueled by the ambition to seal it early and concentrate on UCL. Well, he has been successful too. He is 12 goals ahead of Luis Suarez who is #2 in the top scorer race in Spain.

Barcelona now only need three points to win the league and then they can shift their attention to Liverpool and possibly keep an eye out at Wanda. There is no reason for Valverde to start Messi against Celta and Levante, with two games against Liverpool following those. However, Messi might start against Getafe and Eibar. That might be Messi's only shot at adding to his tally, unlike Mbappe who still has 5 possible games to play.

Having said that, Messi still leads Mbappe by 3 goals and he might play one of the games against Levante or Celta. Even a substitute appearance is enough for him to chip in with a goal. So he might still win the award ahead of Kylian Mbappe.

Prediction:

As we said earlier, Mbappe might get more games than Lionel Messi, who will be possibly rested to keep fit against Liverpool. But still, to be in rhythm for the games, Valverde might use him as a substitute and it is not tough for Messi to rest, even on the pitch. If so, he will add to his tally and end up ahead of Kylian Mbappe. He is already ahead by three.

Our prediction, Lionel Messi.

Quick Links