Paul Merson predicts Manchester United vs Arsenal and other Premier League GW1 fixtures

And we're back! The Premier League returns for what promises to be an exciting 2025/26 campaign. Honestly, I can't wait for it all to kick-off this weekend. It's been a busy summer for the big boys in the English top-flight. Liverpool, Chelsea, Manchester United, Arsenal and Manchester City have spent the most money, in that same order, during the summer transfer window.

I like the signings made by both Arsenal and Liverpool. But I must admit, I'm not so sure about Manchester United. You can have all the best forwards in the world, but if you get torn apart in midfield, it's of no use! Chelsea also look good after their acquisitions this summer.

If you ask me to pick the favourites to win the Premier League right now, I'd have to go with Arsenal. They needed a holding midfielder and a centre-forward this summer and Mikel Arteta has filled both those gaps quite well in my opinion.

From what I saw in the Community Shield, Liverpool look a bit weak at the back. I don't see Mohamed Salah justifying the £300,000 or £400,000 per week salary at Anfield this season. He barely touched the ball in the loss at Wembley! I'm not sure it'll work for him with Jeremie Frimpong, who also likes to play more like a right winger.

I believe Arsenal and Liverpool are the leading contenders and it will all come down to who can keep their best players fit throughout the season. Liverpool did that last time out and ended up winning the league. Arsenal need to do the same, and I have a feeling they will get it done this time.

Without further ado, let us dive straight into my predictions for gameweek 1 of the 2025/26 Premier League season.

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Liverpool vs Bournemouth

Crystal Palace v Liverpool - 2025 FA Community Shield - Source: Getty

I've got to go with Liverpool here. It's phenomenal how strong the Premier League actually is. I don't think the defenders here get the credit they deserve. Just look at Bournemouth, three of their top defenders from last season have joined the biggest clubs in Europe this summer. Dean Huijsen went to Real Madrid, while Milos Kerkez and Illia Zabarnyi signed with Liverpool and Paris Saint-Germain (PSG), respectively.

I like Bournemouth, but I don't know how they are going to cope with losing these defenders. It's a nice game for Liverpool to start the new season. If you look at Arsenal, they have to play Manchester United away from home. So in all honesty, Liverpool would be more than happy to settle with this opening fixture.

Only time will tell if Liverpool have made too many changes for the upcoming season. I expect Florian Wirtz to shine. He looks like a quality player and will almost definitely become a superstar in the years to come. But I ain't so sure about Salah this season. And unlike last time, Liverpool have enough players who can replace him in the starting XI, if he has a bad run.

Salah has scored in each of the last seven opening games for Liverpool in the Premier League, so will he do that again? I wouldn't be surprised if he still did! He never touched the ball in the Community Shield game, but still had an unbelievable chance to win it for Liverpool. He'd also be on penalty duty so I wouldn't be shocked if he scored.

Bournemouth are a bit light at the back and I don't think they will trouble Liverpool. Comfortable win for Arne Slot's reigning champions.

Prediction: Liverpool 3-0 Bournemouth

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Aston Villa vs Newcastle United

Newcastle United FC v Everton FC - Premier League - Source: Getty

This is a big football match. These two clubs were tipped to fight for a top-five place but haven't been able to strengthen their squad in the transfer window. Newcastle, especially, have had a nightmare window considering they won the EFL Cup and qualified for Champions League.

You can only feel sorry for Newcastle with what has happened over the last few weeks. Big players like Alexander Isak call the shots in football these days. They will always want to play with the best players in the world. So the ball is firmly in his court. If Newcastle freeze him out of the first team, he can still leave in January. Isak isn't the first person to do this, so I don't blame him! He could have left as a hero, if he had been more patient though. That almost seems impossible now. His image is tarnished and it will be a sour feeling whenever he leaves.

I'd be shocked if Newcastle don't get rid of Isak before the summer transfer deadline. He won't care if he has to sit there and do nothing for the next six months because he will still attract interest from top clubs in January. So it's best to sell him now in my opinion.

Newcastle set the bar really high last season and I expect it to be really tough for them this time around. I don't think they are the same team without Isak and I expect Villa to beat them in his absence.

Prediction: Aston Villa 2-0 Newcastle United

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Brighton & Hove Albion vs Fulham

Brighton & Hove Albion FC v Leicester City FC - Premier League - Source: Getty

Interesting game. These two teams won't be far away from each other in the Premier League table. If you're Arsenal or Liverpool, Brighton and Fulham are the kind of teams you must take six points from during the season. It's because both these teams can take points off the big boys in the league, they are very dangerous on their day. If you can beat them twice in a season, you are strong contenders!

Brighton do their job so well in the transfer market. They have great scouts and run their transfer business better than anyone else in the league. I know Joao Pedro did not score tons of goals last season, but he's still a top player they've now sold to Chelsea for a good profit.

Carlos Baleba looks to be next in line amid interest from Manchester United. I don't think he will come cheap though. Losing him would be a big blow for Brighton because he's a real difference maker for them.

I can't see much difference between these sides at the moment, expecting a draw here.

Prediction: Brighton & Hove Albion 1-1 Fulham

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Sunderland vs West Ham United

SOCCER: AUG 03 Premier League Summer Series AFC Bournemouth vs West Ham United - Source: Getty

This is a nightmare game for West Ham. When you're a settled Premier League team like West Ham, you want to play the newly-promoted team in November, when they are dealing with the reality of the top-flight. This opening game makes it a leveller for Sunderland because they will be buoyed by their return to the Premier League. Sunderland will highlight this game as 'must-win' for themselves, especially since they are playing on home turf.

Losing Mohammed Kudus is a big blow for West Ham. He brings the X-factor that West Ham lack at the moment. They still have Jarrod Bowen though. I'm a big fan of his and I believe he will score vital goals to help West Ham avoid relegation this season.

If you are one of the newly-promoted teams, you're looking at West Ham and Wolves as the teams you can potentially drag into the battle to avoid relegation. So Sunderland have to win this weekend, but I don't think it will happen. Even though they have spent a lot of money, I expect West Ham's seasoned Premier League campaigners to nick a win.

Prediction: Sunderland 0-1 West Ham United

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Tottenham Hotspur vs Burnley

Paris Saint-Germain v Tottenham Hotspur - UEFA Super Cup 2025 - Source: Getty

I watched Tottenham against PSG in the UEFA Super Cup and everyone was going on about how great they were. But it was a bit like 1980s football from Spurs if you ask me! PSG dominated the ball and Tottenham were just getting on the end of set-pieces.

If you play like that, you need to be winning games at least. That did not happen against PSG and I don't think the performance was as great as some people thought. If Spurs can sign Eberechi Eze, it becomes a different game though. Then I can understand them being tight at the back and relying on someone like him and the rest of the front three to produce magic. Otherwise, it's a painful watch!

Burnley have bought well this summer, but I don't think they will win here. The last time they were in the Premier League, they let in a lot of goals. We'll find out this weekend if Burnley have learnt a lesson from that experience under former manager Vincent Kompany. There is too much talent in the Premier League for them to keep as many clean sheets as they did last season in the Championship.

Don't get me wrong, Tottenham aren't a great team just yet, but they will have enough to get the better of Burnley.

Prediction: Tottenham Hotspur 1-0 Burnley

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Wolves vs Manchester City

Manchester City Training Session - Source: Getty

When I watched Wolves last season without Matheus Cunha, they didn't have that X-factor. He's gone permanently now and I worry for them! A 38-game season without a talisman like him would be hard. Even Rayan Ait-Nouri has left the club and could face them for the first time as a Manchester City player this weekend. The newly-promoted teams will definitely push hard to try and hunt Wolves down from the get-go.

Even though it's a nightmare start for Wolves against Manchester City, the first game is also a bit of a leveller. It's better playing City now without Rodri than playing them in December, when they're firing on all cylinders.

City are always going to be in the equation for the title race because of the quality they have in their team. Kevin De Bruyne will be a huge miss though, and Rodri will not be available from the start of the season. City will hope that Phil Foden can hit the ground running this weekend. He had a really quiet season last time around and must ensure he does not carry that lack of form into the new campaign.

I'm not fully convinced about City. They still looked very open at the Club World Cup and teams can easily have a go at them. So I believe Wolves have a slight chance at getting something out of this game, if they perform well.

Prediction: Wolves 1-2 Manchester City

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Chelsea vs Crystal Palace

Chelsea FC v Bayer 04 Leverkusen - Pre-Season Friendly - Source: Getty

No, I don't see Chelsea as title contenders this season! As a fan, I hope they finish in the top four. The injury to Levi Colwill is a massive blow for Chelsea. He is expected to miss the majority of the season, and I worry about the goalkeeper and the other two centre-halves in his absence. Robert Sanchez is a good shot-stopper, but he always has a mistake in him and he makes people around him nervous.

Chelsea are still a very young team and I expect them to make mistakes. Let's not forget that they also have to play the Champions League this season, meaning their resources could be stretched further. The arrival of Liam Delap does not make them title challengers. He may replace Nicolas Jackson, who I don't think is a bad player. Jackson is someone who is a constant threat to opponents, even if he misses a few chances. You have to learn to walk before you can run, and that is why I think Chelsea will not challenge Liverpool and Arsenal.

If Crystal Palace lose Eze and Marc Guehi, it will be a big challenge for them to finish in the top half of the table. Oliver Glasner is an outstanding character and I believe he has done a phenomenal job at Palace. But I think they have not recruited well enough to reproduce the magic from last season.

Palace were incredible when they came from 2-0 down to win the Community Shield against Liverpool on penalties. I think this is a hard game for Chelsea and purely as a fan, I'm wishing they win 2-1. In reality, this could be a draw, but I genuinely hope I'm wrong!

Prediction: Chelsea 1-1 Crystal Palace

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Nottingham Forest vs Brentford

Nottingham Forest v ACF Fiorentina - Pre-Season Friendly - Source: Getty

Bit of a funny summer at Nottingham Forest. Morgan Gibbs-White looked set to join Spurs before that dramatic turnaround. Forest have done nothing big in the transfer market after their success last season either. They will play the Europa League this season after Crystal Palace's demotion to the Conference League.

Forest have lost Anthony Elanga, who joined Newcastle earlier this summer. They are a proper counter-attacking team so this is now a huge problem. I don't know how Forest can play that way without Elanga or a like-for-like replacement. I'd be shocked if Forest finished anywhere near seventh-place like last season!

This is a hard game for Brentford under new manager Keith Andrews. He played for me at Walsall, a really good professional. But replacing Thomas Frank isn't an easy task. Brentford cannot afford to lose Yoane Wissa amid interest from Newcastle. If you take Bryan Mbeumo, who has joined Manchester United, and Wissa out of that team, they lose a major chunk of their firepower. I have a feeling Brentford will be able to keep him.

I think Brentford will still be hard to beat and I think they have more than enough in their tank to stay up. I'm not sure about this game though!

Prediction: Nottingham Forest 1-0 Brentford

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Manchester United vs Arsenal

Arsenal v Villarreal - Pre-Season Friendly - Source: Getty

This is a must-win game for Arsenal, it's as simple as that! If you have a look at their fixtures after this weekend, it goes like - Leeds United at home, Liverpool away, Forest and Man City at home before a trip to Newcastle. If they don't beat Manchester United on Sunday, I don't expect them to beat Liverpool and City during this run! So all of a sudden, they could be seven or nine points behind in the title race.

Now people talk about it being a long season with 38 games. But if Arsenal are trailing Liverpool by nine points by September, I don't think they will be able to catch up. If Arsenal draw and Liverpool win this weekend, and the Reds beat them at Anfield in gameweek three, the Gunners will be five points behind Arne Slot's men. That is still a huge problem if you're Arsenal. So I cannot emphasise enough on why Arsenal must beat United, otherwise this could end up being a nightmare start for them.

Viktor Gyokeres scored a brilliant header in pre-season. When Arsenal are under pressure in certain games, he will become a nuisance to opponents by running the channels and working the defenders. He's a real presence in front of goal and you can count on him to cause problems to opponents.

I think Arsenal can win the league, if they can keep all their main players fit. I'd be shocked if Gyokeres, Bukayo Saka and Martin Odegaard all play 35 games and Arsenal still don't win the Premier League. They are massive favourites if that happens.

Mikel Arteta and Arsenal must forget about the 37 games they have coming up after this weekend. This is the problem with some people in this league, you should never go into a new season with a mindset of making up points later. Look at Jose Mourinho when he was successful at Chelsea, he always got off the block quickly. It's true that you can't win the league in October, but you can surely lose it if you're not sharp enough!

Prediction: Manchester United 1-2 Arsenal

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Leeds United vs Everton

Everton v AS Roma - Pre-Season Friendly - Source: Getty

Everton have made a great signing in Jack Grealish. He will play with more freedom at Everton and that could bring the best out of him. Leeds will be looking at this fixture as a must-win game though. Points are going to be in shortage for teams that have come up this season and like I said before, the opening game is a big leveller for them.

If Leeds are unable to win on home turf this weekend, you can only help but wonder how they are going to get points week in, week out! It's going to be a hard game because Everton are a decent team. David Moyes will set them up pretty well for this fixture too. In the end, I believe Everton will have too much for Leeds. This is the gulf in class you are up against in the Premier League if you're a newly-promoted team!

Prediction: Leeds United 0-1 Everton