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Ajax hosted Real Madrid in the first leg of the UEFA Champions League RO16 tie on Wednesday night. The 13-time Champions must have been confident coming into the game, more due to the fact that Ajax's performances against Feyenoord, Heerenveen, and Heracles were utterly pathetic.
But for some odd reason, the Ajax that showed up at Johan Cruyff Arena against Real Madrid was not the same that had lost to a mid-table team just days ago.
The young Ajax team played a beautiful, flamboyant, fearless football against the Spanish and European heavyweights. Real Madrid were surely caught by surprise by Ajax's synergy as their toils on the pitch suggested.
However, at the end of the day, the spirited Ajax side fell to a 2-1 defeat at home which now leaves them with an uphill task to overturn the tie at Santiago Bernabeu.
Can the Dutch side overturn the side in Spain? We were impressed by the performance from the Dutch side, at least I was. So we shall look at why the energetic group organized by Erik Ten Hag has a chance to go through, even if they are facing Madrid at Bernabeu.
#5 Ajax came mighty close first game
This is the obvious reason to back the Dutch side. Against the expectation of many people, Ajax came out guns blazing in the first game against Madrid. They not only had control of the game, but they were also consistent in their press and passing game.
The young Ajax side had a great passing network and it has to be said that they performed better in the middle of the park than the Spaniards.
What went against Ajax was endurance and patience. In the second half, the young Ajax side wasn't as dominant as they were in the first and Madrid was quick to punish them when they let the guard down.
The Dutch side, however, managed to get a goal, had a goal ruled out controversially by VAR which UEFA later explained on twitter, and they were also unlucky not to have the foul called on de Jong during the build-up to the second goal.
We aren't saying that Madrid was favoured, we are saying Ajax were unlucky. And they were also lucky to not get Ziyech ruled out of the second leg. (Please don't fill the comments section with arguments) But we saw a vibrant Ajax side who made Madrid toil. Madrid did weather the storm, but the storm can surely travel places. How about the Bernabeu for a stop?
#4 Real Madrid's fixtures preceding the game
Another fun factor leading up to the second leg is this one. We are all pointing out how Barcelona are walking on tightropes. They will face Lyon, Sevilla, and then Madrid twice, all away from home, in a space of 12 days. Tough, isn't it?
There can't be anyone happier than Madridistas seeing that Barcelona is going through a tough schedule which could hurt them in the league and in the cup as well.
What no one is actually noticing is that Real Madrid will have troubles too, once the Clasico is done. They are going to face Barcelona twice and then Ajax, following the El Clasico in the league. The two El Clasicos are going to be tough, it always is that way.
In the game against Barcelona in the league, if Madrid lose, they can consider a trophy gone. If they are to win that game they need to field their best team and not one with rotations. If they do that then they are up against a fresh and energetic team, raring to press the life out of Madrid, either with tired players or with less experienced players.
So what's it going to be Real Madrid? Do you prefer a risk losing against Barcelona, which of course is the biggest humiliation for you, or do you prefer risking a rotation against an Ajax team who made the regulars run for their money? Guess who's laughing now.
#3 Real Madrid's press resistance is poor
Even though Madrid seem to be well back on track under Santiago Solari, that isn't necessarily the case when it comes to the press. The team was not in their best run of form and they had dropped points in quick succession, to Sociedad and Villarreal.
What they have improved from those games is their pressing game. Against Sevilla particularly we saw an immense amount of pressing from Madrid.
But when it came against Real Betis, Madrid again had no solution so Solari went back to damage limitation and dug out the result. Ajax just exposed what high intense press can do to Madrid.
The Los Blancos were only weathering the storm and holding their ground in the first half. Their best midfield trio were suffocated for space and time. Ajax also managed to create a stunning number of opportunities through Madrid's midfield and defence.
A lack of press resistance is not a reason to boost winning chances directly. But looking at it indirectly, Ajax managed to press out even Kroos, Casemiro and Modric for space. Their passing networks easily managed to bypass Madrid's press instead.
The whole game for Madrid's midfielders was dispossessions, bad touches, and poor passing efficiency. Modric himself could complete only 50 passes, Kroos 60. Casemiro's pass percentage was just 81. He was dispossessed 4 times, Modric was dispossessed twice. Modric had no dribbles, Kross had 1, Casemiro had 1.
Now if the best midfield trio of Madrid struggled this much due to Ajax's press, what will happen if you play Ceballos or Marco Llorente instead? Madrid has never faced a side who presses this hard after the Eibar game, neither do their youngsters have an idea of how intense the press from Ajax is. The game could come down to this one criterion surely, it can.
#2 Ajax just needs a gentle tweak in attack from the previous game
What does Ajax have to do to go through? Win the game by scoring at least two goals. Can Ajax do that though? We have talked about how Ajax is a ferocious team while pressing, we have talked about how they were unlucky to lose the first game, but can they score two goals?
It isn't a big deal though. Goalscoring is the least of Ajax's concerns. They created 19 shots at goal and also got 7 of them on target. In those 19 chances, some were too good to be missed. In fact, Ajax would be ruing their missed opportunities.
If Tadic was a tad behind the line, maybe Tagliafico's header would have been given as a goal. Before that goal also, Ajax was pushing Madrid further back. Attacking in the standard 2-2-6 formation, de Jong and Schone didn't have to do much to find out their teammates in wide positions or make vertical passes.
The final ball lacked quality sometimes. At other times, it was the lack of ruthless finishing. Ziyech missed a 1v1 in the 35th minute. Kasper Dolberg missed two good chances after coming on which Huntelaar could have converted. There was nothing much wrong about Ajax other than this. They were positive throughout the game and played their heart out.
If they play the same quality of football, the same pressing game, only with improved play in the final third and in front of goal, they are in with more than just a chance to progress.
#1 Sergio Ramos will be banned
The biggest factor in the second leg of the RO16 tie. Sergio Ramos picked up a yellow card against Ajax and after UEFA looked into it, they have come to a conclusion that it was picked up intentionally. The rules suggest that the ban is for two games for intentional booking and in that case, Ramos will be out of the lineup to face Ajax.
This is a big boost for the Ajax side and improves their chances of winning. For once, they will have a shot at a defence of Varane and Nacho, a duo who haven't played together often. They will also get rid of the frustrations that Ramos was providing at the back.
Three tackles, four clearances, four interceptions, what more is needed? But now, that won't be there and there is no assurance that even Varane can guard the defence like Ramos, despite being a better defender individually.
Real Madrid will also lose their plot of pushing the defensive line up high. Ramos is always the main protagonist when it comes to defence aiding offence. That is taken away also. Then there is the obvious factor of team-spirit. Ramos holds the team together and motivates them on the pitch. Who will do that now? For all we know, even Modric might be rested for this game.
Ajax will fancy their chances at the Bernabeu.
What do you think? Will Ajax do the unthinkable or will Madrid end all the doubts? Drop your views in the comments below.
