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Fans haven't seen Max Holloway inside the octagon since July of last year. At UFC 276, he suffered a third loss to Alexander Volkanovski in a failed bid to recapture the featherweight throne. While their initial two bouts were fairly competitive, with their second matchup being especially close, the third fight was completely different.
'The Great' earned a dominant victory by thoroughly outstriking 'Blessed' in a manner never seen before. It led to many fans and analysts wondering if perhaps the damage Max Holloway has absorbed throughout the years has finally caught up to him. After taking a much-needed break from MMA, 'Blessed' is set to return.
He is expected to headline the UFC Fight Night 222 card later this April. His opponent is believed to be rising featherweight contender Arnold Allen. This is not an easy matchup by any means, and given the circumstances, it might be a do-or-die moment for the former featherweight king.
#5. Max Holloway must prove that he is still elite
The former featherweight champion is in a difficult position. While he has been the protagonist of several memorable moments inside the octagon, every dog has its day. Unfortunately, his previous performance against Alexander Volkanovski raised several questions. Among those questions is why did he look so much worse?
Their first two fights were fairly close, with many fans suggesting that Max Holloway was robbed in their second bout. But their third matchup was vastly different. 'Blessed' looked several steps behind his Australian rival. Could it be that 'The Great' has simply improved to that extent? It's possible.
But it's also possible that Max Holloway has declined. He'll be in prime position to answer these questions once he clashes with Arnold Allen in April. If he suffers another loss, it'll be clear that he is no longer the fighter he once was.
#4. Max Holloway has absorbed a lot damage throughout the years
During his peak, Max Holloway was an offensive dynamo who broke significant-strike records in the UFC. The Hawaiian legend was known for drowning his foes in an avalanche of punches and his volume was unmatched.
But for as efficient as his offensive striking has always been, his defensive striking has been called into question. He takes a tremendous amount of shots in his fights. His bout against Dustin Poirier is a prime example. Thus far, he's been able to trust his chin and toughness.
All chins, however, crack at some point. Holloway absorbs a concerning amount of blows per fight. He was even removed from UFC 226 due to suffering from concussion-like symptoms, which led to concerns from fellow fighters like former foe Conor McGregor.
During his last outing inside the octagon, he seemed to be reacting to Volkanovski's punches differently than he usually does. If his chin is, in any way, compromised, his time at the top may have come to an end. If he can no longer rely on his toughness, he'll become the next Tony Ferguson.
#3. This is Max Holloway's last chance to mount a title run
Max Holloway has now had two chances to reclaim his divisional crown from Alexander Volkanovski. Both chances ended in failure. In such cases, it can be difficult for the UFC to justify giving 'Blessed' a third title fight against his only rival. He has suffered three losses to the same fighter.
While only two of those losses were title shots, it still means that promoting a fourth rematch between the two is significantly harder. But reclaiming the title is Max Holloway's only goal in the division. Thus, he has no choice but to continue defeating contenders until he cannot be denied.
To force his way back into title contention, he must defeat Arnold Allen come April. If he fails, his last ditch effort to become a champion will vanish and he will have nothing else to motivate him as a fighter.
#2. He is too small to compete in the lightweight division
While Max Holloway had minor lightweight success on the Hawaiian regional scene early on in his career, the former featherweight champion hasn't had much luck in the UFC 155 lbs weight class. He once faced Dustin Poirier for the interim lightweight title but came up short.
The Hawaiian's performance in that bout was revealing. He absorbed more damage in that fight than he ever has against anyone else. Furthermore, his punches lacked the power or sting to stop 'The Diamond' from simply marching him down. This is troubling.
He lacks the physicality to compete in the lightweight division. While he's tall enough, he doesn't have the overall frame for the division. If he doesn't have a way to keep lightweights from bullying and outgunning him, he'll be walked down and bullied and will never be anywhere near a title fight.
If he loses to Arnold Allen and makes the decision to fight in the lightweight division, it won't bode well for him.
#1. A move to bantamweight could be risky
Max Holloway will be short of options if he suffers a loss against Arnold Allen. It could spell the end of his time as a top-level featherweight in the division, much like how José Aldo realized he couldn't compete against today's 145'ers. If 'Blessed' follows in the Brazilian great's footsteps, it could be concerning.
While there are bantamweights who match the Hawaiian's physical dimensions, something must be pointed out. Max Holloway relies almost exclusively on his toughness and chin as his primary form of defense. If he cuts down to the bantamweight division, his ability to take shots may very well be compromised.
Much like in T.J. Dillashaw's loss to Henry Cejudo at flyweight, 'Blessed' might find that his body is too dehydrated at 135 lbs. Thus, he'll be in no position to absorb any blows to the head. If this recourse fails him, he'll be in no man's land as he won't be a title challenger in any division.
